Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#861 Cal Poly vs.
#862 Saint Mary's
Sunday, November 17, 2019 at 8:00pm EST
Written by Scott Reichel

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#861 California Polytechnic State University
#862 Saint Mary's College of California
1-2
2-1
8-18-1
19-15
17-9-1
15-19
66
72
75
64

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This Sunday, there is an NCAAB matchup between the Cal Poly Mustangs and the Saint Mary's Gaels. This will be the first meeting between these teams this season and it will take place at the McKeon Pavilion.

Cal Poly Looks For First Road Win Of The Season

The Cal Poly Mustangs have been extremely unimpressive up to this point in the season as they have a losing record through three games. To make matters worse, their only win came in their last game against a non-division one opponent so the Mustangs have yet to beat anyone of note. Cal Poly has also lost each of its first two road games this season by at least seven points so it has looked like a below-average team whenever it is required to travel on the road. Now, Cal Poly has to face its most talented opponent on the road as it will look for its first road win of the season. Whether or not the Mustangs have the ability to pull off this upset victory, however, remains unseen.

Leading the Mustangs offensively is sophomore guard Junior Ballard who has been good this season. Specifically, he is averaging a team-high 14.3 points per game along with 3.3 rebounds. In addition, he is also shooting an insane 66.7% from the three-point line. Ballard has also been extremely impressive defensively as he is averaging a team-high 1.7 steals. Cal Poly will need Ballard to play extremely well if it plans on winning this road game.

Cal Poly's most underrated player is freshman forward Kyle Colvin who has been solid so far this season. Specifically, he is averaging 10.7 points per game along with 6.3 rebounds which is the most on the team. In addition, DeJesus has also been efficient as he is shooting 51.9% from the floor. Colvin has shown a lot of potential in his first college season and he should develop into a key contributor in the near future.

Saint Mary's Looks For Another Home Win

The Saint Mary's Gaels have looked very underwhelming so far this season. The Gaels have won two of their first three games of the season by including an 18 point victory against Long Beach State at home in their last game. In that game, Saint Mary's offense was solid as it scored 81 points while shooting 56.4% from the floor and 60.0% the three-point line. However, Saint Mary's already lost one home game as a huge favorite this season and it cannot afford another slip up against a much inferior opponent. After what happened against Winthrop, one can definitely expect to see Saint Mary's come out extremely focused and motivated to take care of business in this home game.

Leading the Gaels offensively is senior guard Jordan Ford who has been great so far this season. He is averaging a team-high 19.3 points per game along with 3.0 rebounds while shooting 49.0% from the floor and 50.0% from the three-point line. In addition, Ford has been extremely active defensively as he has a team-high 2.3 steals per game. Now, Ford will look to lead his team to another victory on Sunday.

Saint Mary's most underrated player is senior guard Tanner Krebs who has been pretty good so far this season. Specifically, he is averaging 10.7 points per game along with 4.3 rebounds. In addition, Krebs is shooting an impressive 46.7% from the three-point line after shooting just 39.8% from downtown last season. Krebs is one of the biggest sharpshooters on the team and he will look to continue shooting well in the future.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Cal Poly has looked awful this season against fellow division one basketball teams so I have to assume that the Mustangs will look flat once again on Sunday. Saint Mary's is a ranked team that tends to be fantastic at home so I think that Cal Poly will look even worse on Sunday than it did in its first two games against Santa Clara and North Dakota State. It would not surprise me to see the Gaels blow this game open early on as they eventually win this home game by 30 points. Give me the home team as a result.

Prediction: Saint Mary's

Full-Game Total Pick

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Saint Mary's plays at one of the slowest paces in the country so I think that this should be a very low scoring game on Sunday. Plus, Cal Poly's offense has been very underwhelming so I expect the Mustangs to struggle generating anything on a consistent basis offensively during these 40 minutes. Saint Mary's will milk the clock on offense in its halfcourt sets and will do a great job getting back on defense to limit all transition opportunities for Cal Poly which will result in less points. Give me the under.

Prediction: Under

Half-Time Side Pick

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Saint Mary's is the significantly better team in this matchup and I expect the Gaels to get out to a fast start in this game. Plus, Saint Mary's already got upset at home this season by Winthrop so it will be extra careful not to overlook Cal Poly at home in this game. I expect Saint Mary's to dominate for the first 20 minutes as it opens up a double digit lead early on in the second half and eventually coasts to an easy cover. Give me the home team.

Prediction: Saint Mary's 1H
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Written By Scott Reichel

Scott Reichel is a University of Wisconsin-Madison graduate with an insane passion for sports. His commitment to endlessly researching statistics helps separate him from other handicappers with regard to MLB, NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL and NFL coverage. Scott also shares his passion for sports on StatSalt's YouTube page where he does a daily show called Scott's Selections.