Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#647 Seattle vs.
#648 Ole Miss
Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 7:30pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

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#647 Seattle University
#648 University of Mississippi
2-3
3-0
15-15
23-10
13-16-1
13-18-2
73
75
69
71

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The Seattle Redhawks will head on the road to The Pavilion at Ole Miss in Oxford, Mississippi on Tuesday evening as they prepare for a non-conference showdown against the Mississippi Rebels.

The Redhawks will be gearing up for their third quality opponent and second straight Tier-A contest. Seattle comes into Tuesday’s matchup with a 2-3 overall record but they’ve yet to beat a D-I team through the first two weeks of the regular season. Meanwhile, Mississippi continues to flash improvement in the second year of Kermit Davis Jr.’s tenure as head coach. Can the Rebels remain undefeated at home against the Redhawks on Tuesday night?

Seattle still looking for first win vs. D-I opponent

Seattle was unable to earn their first quality win of the season on Saturday, losing on the road to Syracuse 89-67 to fall to 2-3 on the year. Junior guard Terrell Brown scored a team-high 23 points while Delante Jones chipped in 12 points in a losing effort for Seattle. The Redhawks trailed by as many as 23 points in the first half and shot just 36.5 percent from the field, including only 8-for-25 from beyond the arc in the loss.

Jim Hayford’s squad enters Tuesday’s road game ranked No. 186 in the latest KenPom rankings. Seattle comes into the week scoring 96.1 points per 100 possessions (224th in the NCAA), thanks in part to some poor shooting from the field. Through five games, the Redhawks own an effective field goal percentage of 39.5 percent (332nd in the NCAA). Seattle has shot just 42.3 percent from inside the arc (297th in the NCAA) and 21.8 percent from 3-point range (339th in the NCAA) so far this season. However, they have done a good job of taking care of the basketball, turning the ball over on only 15.7 percent of their offensive possessions (44th in the NCAA).

On defense, Seattle has surrendered 98.1 points per 100 possessions (152nd in the NCAA). Opposing teams have been able to get nearly whatever they’ve wanted at the rim against the Redhawks’ defense. Seattle has allowed its opponents to shoot 57.1 percent from inside the arc (309th in the NCAA) so far this year.

Ole Miss continues to flash improvements under Davis Jr.

Mississippi opened the season with their third consecutive win on Friday night, taking down Western Michigan 85-58 behind another strong defensive effort. Breein Tyree led the team in scoring with 20 points while junior guard Devontae Shuler chipped in 14 for Ole Miss, which limited Western Michigan to just 5-for-32 shooting from 3-point range and forced 19 turnovers on the night.

Davis Jr.’s squad enters the week slotted at No. 54 in the latest KenPom rankings following their perfect 3-0 start. The Rebels come into Tuesday’s matchup scoring 105.1 points per 100 possessions (59th in the NCAA) while sporting an effective field goal percentage of 54.8 percent (52nd in the NCAA). Unlike last year’s team, Ole Miss does most of their damage from inside the arc this season. They have shot only 33.3 percent of their total field goal attempts from 3-point range (246th in the NCAA) and they have connected on a healthy 58.0 percent of their shots from inside the arc (26th in the NCAA).

On defense, the Rebels have surrendered only 91.4 points per 100 possessions (53rd in the NCAA) while ranking in the top-20 in several major statistical categories. Mississippi has limited opposing teams to an effective field goal percentage of 38.2 percent (12th in the NCAA), including just 22.2 percent shooting from 3-point range (12th in the NCAA). Ole Miss has also created havoc with their defensive pressure, forcing turnovers 27.8 percent of the time (13th in the NCAA). They also rank fourth in the nation with a defensive steal rate of 17.0 percent.

Best Bets for this Game

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Seattle’s two victories have come against non-DI opponents and they lost by 22 points in their last game against Syracuse. Ole Miss does most of its damage from inside the arc, which should bode well for them here against a Seattle defense that has allowed opponents to shoot 57.1 percent from 2-point range. The Rebels have also been solid defensively under Kermit Davis Jr., so bettors shouldn’t hesitate to roll with Mississippi in this spot. Take the Rebels to cover the spread at home in this non-conference battle on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Mississippi Rebels -17.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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The Rebels really get after their opponents on defense, forcing turnovers on a whopping 27.8 percent of their defensive possessions. That will give them a few extra possessions and opportunities in transition, which should help inflate the total in this game. Seattle hasn’t offered much resistance on the defensive end of the floor either, so look for this game to go over the projected total on Tuesday night. 

Prediction: Over 141
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.