Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#713 Austin Peay 148 vs.
#714 Vanderbilt -8
Wednesday, November 20, 2019 at 8:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

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W/L
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#713 Austin Peay State University
#714 Vanderbilt University
1-2
2-1
16-14-1
11-21
15-16
9-22-1
82
68
73
72

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The Austin Peay Governors will travel to Memorial Gym in Nashville, Tennessee as they get set to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in a non-conference tilt on Wednesday evening.

The Commodores come in with a 2-1 overall record but they were unable to come away with a quality win in their first chance of the year over the weekend. Vanderbilt will try to bounce back against an Austin Peay team that has yet to beat a D-I foe this season. Can the Commodores get back on the winning track against the Governors at home on Wednesday night?

Defense a major problem for Austin Peay

Austin Peay dropped its second straight game on Saturday, falling to Tulsa 72-65 to fall to 0-2 on the road this season. Junior guard Terry Taylor scored 22 points while freshman Jordyn Adams added 15 for the Governors, who shot just 8-for-25 from deep and turned the ball over 17 times on the night.

Matt Figger’s squad comes into the week slotted at No. 218 in the latest KenPom rankings after winning just one of their first three games to start the season. Austin Peay has scored 100.8 points per 100 possessions (119th in the NCAA) despite shooting just 26.1 percent from long-range (297th in the NCAA) through three contests. Instead, they’ve been forced to rely on getting to the free-throw line and generating second-chance opportunities on the offense glass to stay in games. They come in with a free throw rate of 37.0 percent (94th in the NCAA) and an offensive rebounding rate of 35.4 percent (53rd in the NCAA).

Getting stops on defense has been a problem for Austin Peay so far this season. Through three games, the Governors have surrendered 104.8 points per 100 possessions (312th in the NCAA) and they rank outside the top-300 in almost every major defensive category. Austin Peay has allowed its opponents to sport an effective field goal percentage of 60.4 percent (341st in the NCAA) and an offensive rebounding rate of 40.0 percent (344th in the NCAA). Opponents have managed to shoot 59.7 percent from inside the arc (332nd in the NCAA), 41.0 percent from 3-point range (328th in the NCAA), and 82.0 percent from the free-throw line (347th in the NCAA) against the Governors’ defense.

Jerry Stackhouse takes first loss as head coach

Vanderbilt will try to rebound from first-year head coach Jerry Stackhouse’s first loss at the program after suffering a heartbreaking 93-92 overtime loss on the road to Richmond on Thursday. The Commodores erased a 7-point second-half deficit and the teams traded 3-point baskets late in the overtime period before Richmond’s Andre Gustavson made 1 of 2 free throws with 0.6 seconds remaining to send Vanderbilt to its first loss under Stackhouse. Aaron Nesmith scored a team-high 34 points while Saben Lee came off the bench to finish with 24 points and eight assists for the Commodores, who turned the ball over 19 times in the loss.

Stackhouse’s squad comes into the weekend ranked No. 142 in the latest KenPom rankings following their 2-1 start. Vanderbilt comes in scoring only 100.1 points per 100 possessions (136th in the NCAA) despite sporting an effective field goal percentage of 60.1 percent (12th in the NCAA). The Commodores have been efficient from the field but turnovers and missed free throws have held them back on offense. Vanderbilt does most of its damage from beyond the arc, where they have taken a whopping 50.8 percent of their total field goal attempts for the season (10th in the NCAA). Through three games, the Commodores have shot 59.1 percent (20th in the NCAA) from inside the arc and 40.7 percent from 3-point range (32nd in the NCAA) but only 64.6 percent from the charity stripe as a team (264th in the NCAA). They have also turned the ball over on 19.7 percent of their offensive possessions (179th in the NCAA) so far this year.

On defense, Vanderbilt has given up 98.9 points per 100 possessions (169th in the NCAA) despite forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 22.5 percent of the time (75th in the NCAA). The Commodores have been vulnerable from deep, allowing their opponents to shoot 37.5 percent from the 3-point line (284th in the NCAA) through three contests.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

It’s tough to trust the Governors in this spot. Austin Peay has been terrible defensively through three games and Vanderbilt isn’t shy about hoisting up shots from deep, so this game could get out of hand early. The Commodores shoot over half of their total shots from beyond the arc and the Governors have allowed opponents to shoot a blistering 41 percent from 3-point range. Austin Peay won’t be able to keep up in this one, so take Vanderbilt to cover the number at home with confidence on Wednesday night.

Prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores -7

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

KenPom has the Commodores winning this game 77-70 but I’m not sure this game is going to be that close. Vanderbilt should be able to score at will in this game and their willingness to shoot from deep should help inflate the total here. Meanwhile, the Governors crash the offensive glass and get to the free-throw line at a high rate, so they might be able to put some points on the board here. Take this game to go over the projected total on Wednesday evening.

Prediction: Over 147
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.