Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#795 Dayton vs.
#796 Miami - FL
Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 12:00pm EST
Written by Chris King

It’s a first-round matchup on the college hardwood in the Sunshine State as the Atlantic 10 takes on the ACC in the ESPN Events Invitational. The Dayton Flyers are the “road” team as they take on the Miami Hurricanes Thursday afternoon. Dayton comes in off an 87-81 home loss to Austin Peay Saturday in their most recent contest. Miami rolled over Florida A&M by an 86-59 score in their most recent game on Sunday. In the all-time series between the schools, the Flyers own a 7-1 advantage though it was the Hurricanes picking up an 87-82 home victory in the most recent matchup back on December 6, 1989.

Dayton Flyers Seek to Snap Slide

Dayton won their season opener but they have dropped three straight games after falling to Austin Peay at home in their previous contest. The Flyers hope to regroup as they fell to 1-3 on the year with the loss to the Governors. Against Austin Peay, Dayton used a 10-3 run to close the first half to take an eight-point lead. The Flyers were up 12 early in the second half and still led by five with 4:12 to play before things fell apart. Dayton was outscored 14-3 the rest of the way to wind up on the short end of the scoreboard. The Flyers shot 48.3% from the field, including a dismal three of 21 showing from three-point range, and hit 20 of 26 free throws in the contest. Toumani Camara led Dayton with 14 points in the loss.

The Flyers come into this contest putting up 65.5 points per game, which is 288th in the nation, on the season. Dayton pulls down 35.3 rebounds per contest and hands out 10.8 assists per game on the year. The Flyers are 196th in scoring defense as they give up an average of 68.5 points per game. Toumani Camara is the lone player averaging in double figures as he averages 11 points plus 7.3 rebounds per contest. Elijah Weaver, Daron Holmes II, Kobe Elvis, Koby Brea, Malachi Smith, R.J. Blakney, Mustapha Amzil, Lynn Greer and Moulaye Sissoko are important role players for coach Anthony Grant. Dayton shoots 43.5% from the field as a team on the year. The Flyers sink 4.5 three-pointers a game while shooting a rough 22.8% from beyond the arc. Dayton is shooting a below average 71.3% at the free throw line this season.

Miami Hurricanes Looking to Win Third Straight Game

Miami won their second straight game as they cruised to an easy victory over Florida A&M in their previous contest Sunday. The Hurricanes now look to make it three straight wins as they come into the game 3-1 on the season and searching for a victory. Miami bolted to a 42-21 halftime advantage and never let Florida A&M even remotely consider coming back in the game. The Hurricanes didn’t see their lead drop below 15 in the second half of the contest. Miami shot 50% from the field, including 10 of 27 from three-point range, and dominated the boards by a 49-33 margin. Charlie Moore led the Hurricanes with 20 points in the win.

The Hurricanes come into the game 72nd in the nation in scoring offense with 80 points per game on the year. Miami pulls down an average of 37.5 rebounds per contest while dishing out 13 assists per game, which is 196th in the nation. The Hurricanes are below average defensively, ranking 244th in the country by allowing 71.8 points per contest. Kameron McGusty leads the team with 19 points plus 6.3 rebounds per contest this season. Isaiah Wong (16 points), Charlie Moore (11.3 points) and Anthony Walker (10.3 points) each average in double figures this season. Sam Waardenberg, Jordan Miller, Rodney Miller Jr., Bensley Joseph, Deng Gak and Harlond Beverly are key pieces for coach Jim Larranaga’s rotation. The Hurricanes shoot 45.4% from the field as a team this season. Miami connects on 5.8 three-pointers a night while shooting 28.8% from beyond the arc. The Hurricanes are decent at the charity stripe this season, shooting 74.2% as a team at the line.

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


Dayton has struggled offensively in the beginning of the season as the halcyon days of Obi Toppin, Jalen Crutcher and Ryan Mikesell leading the Flyers are gone. They’re trying to piece things together with some new faces but it hasn’t clicked in the early going. Miami has been a very good offensive team and they have four players scoring in double figures on the season. The Hurricanes have to improve defensively but they have the depth and weapons to make things tough for other teams to keep up with. Look for Miami to take care of business playing in their home state as they punch their ticket to the semifinals here.

Prediction: Miami Hurricanes -5.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


Dayton comes into this contest a dismal 349th in the nation in three-point shooting, 204th in effective field goal percentage (47.8%) and 215th in turnover percentage (20.1%) this season. The Flyers don’t push the tempo as they are 333rd in the nation in that category by averaging only 65.7 possessions a night. Miami is 64th in offensive efficiency and 110th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom on the year. The Hurricanes are 140th in effective field goal percentage (50.4%) and 93rd in offensive rebounding percentage (31.9%) but they make their living at the charity stripe. Miami averages .524 free throw attempts per field goal attempt this season, which is the seventh-highest mark in Division I. Both teams have gone over the mark twice in four games: look for the Hurricanes to do enough offensively to push this over the mark.

Prediction: Over 136.5

Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.