Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#819 Georgetown vs.
#820 San Diego State
Thursday, November 25, 2021 at 11:55pm EST
Written by Blake V.

Georgetown and San Diego State will both be looking to book their spot in the championship game of the Wooden Legacy when they square off on Thursday night. The Hoyas bounced back from a 69-60 loss to Dartmouth with wins over American and Siena. San Diego State is off to a 3-1 start, with its loss coming at BYU two weeks ago.

Hoyas hoping youth comes through in tournament

Georgetown opened the season in disappointing fashion, losing to Dartmouth as a 16-point favorite on Nov. 13. The Hoyas have bounced back with a couple of convincing blowout wins over American and Siena. They covered as 13.5-point favorites against American and then covered as 15.5-point favorites against Sienna. Georgetown is one of the youngest teams in college basketball, ranked No. 323 in experience. The Hoyas do have a lot of height, though, as they are No. 53 in average height. KenPom has them listed at No. 101 in adjusted offensive efficiency—their strength is on the defensive end.

They are shooting just 66.1% from the free throw line, but their outside shooting has been impeccable to this point. Georgetown is knocking down 41.5% of its attempts from beyond the arc. This will be an intriguing part of the game, as San Diego State is No. 31 in opponent’s 3-point percentage. Guard Donald Carey leads the team with 15.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists. Guard Aminu Mohammed is averaging 14.0 points and is pulling down a team-high 7.7 rebounds per game. Guards Dante Harris and Kaiden Rice are both scoring in double figures as well. They are going to face a San Diego State defense that is No. 18 in adjusted efficiency.

Aztecs led by Bradley, defense

San Diego State opened the season with a 66-53 win over UC Riverside, barely covering as a 12.5-point favorite. The Aztecs have failed to meet market expectations since then. They were 3-point underdogs in a 66-60 loss to BYU and then failed to cover as favorites against Arizona State and UT Arlington. San Diego State was a 19-point favorite against UT Arlington, but it only came away with a 68-62 win. The Aztecs certainly have more experience than Georgetown, as they rank No. 36 in experience. They are going to be at a height disadvantage, but it is not severe.

KenPom has San Diego State at No. 86 in adjusted offensive efficiency, so the Aztecs are much better on the defensive end as well. They have had some shooting woes early in the season, entering this event with an effective field goal percentage of 44.2. One of the primary struggles has been from beyond the arc, where they are knocking down just 24.6% of their attempts. Guard Matt Bradley leads the team with 14.5 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. Forward Nathan Mensah is scoring 11.3 points and is the leading rebounder with 7.8 boards per contest. Guard Trey Pulliam is also in double figures, adding 10.5 points. They are facing a Georgetown defense that is No. 81 in adjusted efficiency.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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San Diego State has not met betting market expectations to this point in the season, but I think this is a great spot to bet on the Aztecs. They have way more experience than Georgetown, which is going to be a crucial factor on Thursday night. This is the opening night of an early-season tournament, which most of the Hoyas’ roster does not have experience playing in. It is also not going to tip off until at least midnight ET, which gives San Diego State a big advantage. The Aztecs will use their defense and experience to advance to the championship game.

Prediction: San Diego State -5.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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These teams like to push the tempo, but those numbers are accounted for in this line. The factors that are more difficult to account for are things like this being the first game for both teams at a neutral site. There are often some shooting woes early in these types of games, as the players try to adjust to the atmosphere. San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, which is partially due to their roster’s experience with each other. The Aztecs have gone under the total in four of their last six games. Georgetown has gone under in eight of its last 12 games dating back to last season.

Prediction: Under 132.5
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Written By Blake Von Hagen , "Blake V."

Blake is a lifelong sports fan and hoops junkie. Prior to joining our team at Winners & Whiners and StatSalt, Blake worked for several newspapers and websites. He enjoys combining his beat writing expertise with the knack for finding the winning edge in a matchup. Blake is also an avid sports being expert and you would not be disappointed in following him on a daily basis. Remember, it’s a marathon, not a sprint. 
Follow on Twitter @Blake_Vonhagen