Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#675 South Alabama vs.
#676 Evansville
Friday, November 25, 2022 at 6:30pm EST
Written by David Delano

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Evansville (1-4) take on  South Alabama (1-3) on Black Friday in a non-conference matchup played in Savannah, Georgia.

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Better than expected even in defeat

Last season South Alabama went 21-12, ending with a semifinal loss in The Basketball Classic. Coming into this season, the Jaguars were rated No. 184 in the nation, according to SI.com. Head coach Richie Riley is leading the troops in his fifth season with the Jaguars after beginning his head coaching career at Nicholls State.

The Jags opened up this season with a win over NAIA opponent Mobile 97-59 but have dropped all three games against Division I teams. Despite losing, the Jags have covered the spread in each defeat, falling 80-74 as a nine-point underdog to New Mexico, 65-55 as a 10.5-point dog to Alabama, and 64-60 as an 11-point underdog against Oklahoma. Through the first four games, three Jaguars are averaging double figures in scoring, led by 6'1 senior guard Isaiah Moore with 19.5 ppg and 5.3 assists, after scoring 25 points against Oklahoma. Moore was a Division II All-American at Franklin Pierce last season.

South Alabama is rated 194th according to KenPom. They are 140th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 246th on the offensive end.

 

No where to go but up

Last season Evansville finished with a 6-24 record and just 2-16 in the Missouri Valley Conference. This year is expected to be another struggling season, with the team rated No. 315 in the nation, according to the SI.com preseason ratings.

David Raglan has taken over as the head coach after serving as an assistant at Butler last year. Raglan's team is off to a 1-4 start but 3-2 against the spread. They opened the season with a 78-74 outright win as a six-point underdog to Miami, Ohio, and also covered the number as a double-digit dog against St. Louis and SMU. Evansville lost the only game it was favored in, 67-61, to Southeast Missouri State. On Wednesday, the Purple Aces also failed to cover in a 76-56 loss to Central Florida.

Evansville is 322nd in the KenPom ratings, 210th in adjusted defensive efficiency but 354th out of 363 teams on offense. Kenny Strawbridge Jr, a transfer from Alabama State, leads the team with 15.3 ppg but is shooting just 13% (2 for 15) from three-point range.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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South Alabama has been the more consistent team so far. The Jaguars rate better on both ends of the floor, pretty substantially. They have also covered the spread against the 13th, 46th, and 113th-rated teams in the country, according to KenPom, whereas Evansville has an outright loss on its resume as a slight favorite against the 285th-rated team. With the way South Alabama has defended this season, combined with Evansville being one of the absolute worst offensive teams in the country, I expect the Purple Aces to have some lightly scoring droughts that will allow this game to get away from them and for South Alabama to take charge.

Prediction: South Alabama -8

Full-Game Total Pick

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Evansville ranks 341st scoring 61.4 ppg, 357th in three-point shooting, and 362nd in shooting percentage, and now they are facing a South Alabama team that held Alabama to 65 points and Oklahoma to 60. The Jaguars could have pulled off at least one of those upsets if they weren't shooting the ball so poorly themselves, ranking 341st in three-point shooting. It's hard to see either side sniffing 70 points in this game, and the Purple Aces maynot hit 60. Under is the only way I can play this total.

Prediction: Under 131.5
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Written By David Delano , "David Delano"

David Delano is a Bowling Green State University graduate with a passion for sports, traveling, and music. David loves to handicap MLB, NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, NBA, WNBA, and is also a big fan of boxing and track and field. Over the years, David has worn several hats in the sports world, from being behind the camera to writing, filming, editing, scouting, and coaching, along with servicing his clients as a sports handicapper.  He is also an expert sports bettor. We are glad to have David on our Winners & Whiners team, and we recommend that you follow along with him every day. 

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