Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#623 New Mexico State -11.5 vs.
#624 Denver 128
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 9:00pm EST
Written by Blake V.

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#623 New Mexico State University
#624 University of Denver
5-5
4-6
18-13-1
8-21-1
16-16
16-14
77
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77

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New Mexico State will look to get back over the .500 mark when the Aggies travel to Denver for a Tuesday night contest. The Aggies are off to a 5-5 start this season, but they are coming off a loss to Washington State. Denver is 4-6 this year and the Pioneers are fresh off a loss to UCLA on the road.

New Mexico State eyeing road win

New Mexico State opened the season with wins in two of its first three games, beating Western New Mexico and Southern, while losing to UTEP on the road. The Aggies lost their next two games, falling to Arizona and New Mexico. Then came a two-game winning streak that included wins against Colorado State and South Florida. They have lost two of their last three games, however, being defeated by George Mason and Washington State. New Mexico State avenged its earlier loss to UTEP with a win against them at home last Tuesday.

The Aggies only have two players scoring in double figures each game. Senior guard Trevelin Queen is scoring 14.9 points per game and averaging 5.5 rebounds per game. He is the team’s leading 3-point shooter, making 20 of 61 attempts from downtown. Sophomore guard Jabari Rice is also in double digits, scoring 12.5 points per game and grabbing 4.4 rebounds per contest. The team’s leading distributor is senior guard Shunn Buchanan, who is dishing out 3.6 assists per outing.

Denver hoping to spring upset

Denver opened the season with losses to Colorado State and Utah State, while beating Utah Valley at home. The Pioneers' second win of the year came against Western State in their fourth contest. They enter Tuesday night’s game having lost four of their last times out, including defeats to UC Riverside, Santa Clara, Southeast Missouri State and UCLA. They picked up wins against CS Fullerton and Jackson State as well. Their most recent outing was the 82-61 defeat on the road against the Bruins.

The Pioneers also only have two players who are scoring in double figures. Senior guard Ade Murkey leads the way with 12.8 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. Murkey is the most efficient shooter on the team, connecting on 7 of 15 attempts from beyond the 3-point line. Sophomore guard Jase Townsend is also in double digits, scoring 11.6 points per game while adding 4.9 rebounds per contest. He has struggled to find a rhythm from beyond the arc, only making 15 of 51 attempts. The team’s leading assist man is freshman guard Roscoe Eastmond, who is dishing out 2.9 dimes per game.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Rating:

New Mexico State has only won one of its road games this season. The Aggies will likely win Tuesday’s game due to a talent gap, but I do not expect them to cover this spread. Denver has been a really solid team at home, winning all three games played within its home confines. Both of these teams play at a slow pace, which is always advantageous for the team that is getting points. New Mexico State has not been good against-the-spread, only covering in two of its last nine games. I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday, as Denver should get the job done and cover this spread at home.

Prediction: Denver +11.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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Rating:

Denver likes to push the ball up the court slightly more than New Mexico State, but the Pioneers are still only at No. 193 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo ratings. The Aggies are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, coming in at No. 305 in KenPom’s list. Denver does not play very efficiently on offense, which is important as far as the total is concerned. The under has hit in four of New Mexico State’s last five road games and the under has cashed in five of Denver’s last seven games played on a Tuesday. I like both of those trends to continue on Tuesday and for this one to go under the number.

Prediction: Under 128
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Written By Blake V.

Blake is a lifelong sports fan and hoops junkie. Prior to joining our team at Winners & Whiners and StatSalt, Blake worked for several newspapers and websites. He enjoys combining his beat writing expertise with the knack for finding the winning edge in a matchup. Remember, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.