Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#707 Air Force vs.
#708 Denver
Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 3:00pm EST
Written by Adam Rauzino

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#707 Air Force Academy
#708 University of Denver
4-6
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8-21-1
15-15-1
16-14
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The Air Force Falcons will head on the road to battle the Denver Pioneers in non-conference play Saturday afternoon from the Magness Arena. The Falcons were tagged with a 100-85 home loss to Nevada in their latest tilt, and the Pioneers are coming off a 72-67 home loss to New Mexico State. Air Force posted a 73-65 win against Denver last season

Air Force Squanders Season High 100 Points

The Air Force Falcons have only won four of their first ten games due to awful defensive play. The Falcons had a two-game winning streak thwarted in a rough 100-85 home loss to Nevada on Saturday in a tilt that had them as 2.5 point dogs.

Lavelle Scottie has been the Falcons biggest offensive threat, and he has accumulated a combined 42 points in his last two games. The senior forward is only shooting 42.2% but he attempts a ton of shots. Scottie is averaging 14.7 points and 6.3 rebounds. A.J. Walker is locked in, netting at least 20 points in two straight games and he has collected 12 rebounds in that span. The sophomore guard has lifted his season average to 12.9 points on 48.4% shooting. Ryan Swan has logged double-digits in points in three out of his last four games. The senior center is third in team scoring with 11.1 points.

The Falcons are ranked 204th in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball ratings, and stand 2-1 on the road which included a win against Wyoming. Air Force is scoring an average of 72.8 points, ranking them 169th overall. They are allowing an average of 74.2 points, placing them 291st in DI.

Denver Tagged with Second Straight Loss

The Denver Pioneers will look to avoid their third straight defeat in this one. They lost to UCLA followed by a 72-67 home loss to New Mexico State in their previous game in a tilt that had the Pioneers labeled as 12 point dogs.

Watch for Ade Murkey in this one. The senior guard is red-hot, registering at least 17 points in three straight games which included 22 points in Tuesday’s defeat. Murkey features an average of 13.6 PPG on 48% shooting. Jase Townsend accumulated a season-best 29 points in Tuesday’s loss. The sophomore guard has connected on over 50% of his shots in two out of his last three games, and he is now averaging 13.2 points and 4.8 rebounds. Robert Jones has scored seven or fewer points in three straight games. The freshman forward is third in team scoring with 7.8 PPG.

The Pioneers are pegged down at 312th in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball ratings, and they are 3-1 on their home court. Denver is struggling offensively and they are only averaging 62.7 points on the season, placing them down at 324th in all of DI. The Pioneers are conceding an average of 71 points, pegging them 232nd overall.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I am siding with Denver in this one. Denver has been competitive recently as they have covered in three straight games. They were able to shoot a solid 45% from the field against UCLA earlier this week and have scored 67 points in two out of their last three games which is well above their season average of 62 points.

Furthermore, Air Force is struggling defensively, surrendering at least 77 points in three out of their last four games and opponents are shooting a remarkable 48.7% from the field against them. Denver is starting to heat up offensively and this is a prime chance to resume their offensive momentum. 

Prediction: Denver Pioneers

Full-Game Total Pick

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I am going with the over in this matchup. Denver has been receiving low totals but I like the fact they are turning the corner from an offensive standpoint. Air Force ranks near the bottom of the country in many defensive categories including three-point defense, so I expect the Pioneers to post solid offensive numbers. The over is 7-1 in the Pioneers' last eight home games as an underdog.

In addition, Air Force is clicking in the offensive end, registering at least 76 points in three consecutive games and Denver will give up points. Opponents are shooting 45.7%  against them which ranks them down at 293rd in DI in field goal defense. The over is 4-1 in the Falcons' last five Saturday games, and it should cash again.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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Rating:

The over on the Denver team total available on PointsBet is a good play. Denver has shot at least 45% in two straight games and 37% from three-point range in that span. Air Force is giving up a lot of three’s. Opponents are shooting 37.3% from deep against Air Force which places them down at 324th in DI, so I expect Denver to generate points from three-point range.

Prediction: Denver Team Total Over

Half-Time Side Pick

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Rating:

I am siding with Air Force on the halftime line. Air Force has picked it up in the first half where they have averaged a terrific 39.7 points in their last three games overall. Denver has not fared well in the first half where they are only averaging 29 points. The Pioneers have averaged a solid 34 points in the second half over their last three games, and I expect a big second half in this one.

Prediction: Air Force
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.