Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#753 UC Davis vs.
#754 San Diego
Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 10:00pm EST
Written by Sean Jackson

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#753 University of California, Davis
#754 University of San Diego
4-7
4-7
11-17
18-17
13-15
11-23-1
65
71
68
68

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After losing a close contest to Utah, UC Davis has strung together two consecutive wins including a 66-57 victory over Northern Illinois. To make it three straight, they must travel to San Diego to begin their three-game run against West Coast Conference opponents.

San Diego has also won its last two games. In their latest game, they beat CSUC 66-54. Saturday's contest takes place at the Jenny Craig Pavilion with tip-off slated for 10 p.m. EST.

The Aggies' defense starting to come together

One of the reasons for the struggles in the early part of the season concerned a young team trying to gel on the go. It was evident in their defensive showing, where they allow opponents to score 71 points per game.

However, in their last two contests, they've been finding their groove defensively. In each of their victories, they held their opponents to 66 points or under.

On Saturday, their defense should replicate their success as they face a San Diego offense that's struggled to score consistently. The Toreros average 67 points per game.

To keep the San Diego offense in check, the Aggies must challenge Joey Calcaterra who leads San Diego in scoring with 13 points per game. One area where he excels is in perimeter shooting where he makes 40% of his shots, so it's vital for the Aggies to challenge him so he doesn't get off to a quick start.

Offensively, UC Davis should have no problems in scoring. They face a San Diego defense that allows opponents to shoot 45% on their home floor. With this in mind, if players like Joe Mooney can have a hot start, the Aggies could control the pace from the opening tip.

Can San Diego exploit the Aggies' defense?

While UC Davis has been playing better defense at home, their inexperience shows on the road where they allow teams to average 74 points per game on their home courts. This a matchup San Diego wants to exploit fully.

The key is to make the extra pass to find the best shot. This could be much easier too as the Aggies allow opponents to make 51% of their field-goal attempts and a staggering 40% of their shots from behind the arc.

With these factors in mind, if the Toreros can make shots early, then they can apply pressure to an Aggies' squad that's still gaining experience in road environments. This results in San Diego's offensive success extending to the defensive end.

The Aggies won't wow anyone with their offense. They average over 66 points per game, but they do make 44% of their shots and almost 39% of their three-point attempts. So, the onus is on the Toreros to apply pressure to create rushed shots.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I like San Diego to win this one because they have a more balanced team. Their offense isn't stellar, but it is opportunistic, and I fully expect them to exploit a UC Davis defense that struggles in assignments on the defensive end. By making some shots early, it gives the Toreros the momentum they can use to apply pressure to an inexperienced Aggies team who struggles to score on the road. San Diego uses its defensive performance to hold off UC Davis to win the game late.

Prediction: San Diego

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Neither of these teams features the most prolific of offenses. Given UC Davis's struggles on the road to score, they'll have trouble mounting sustainable runs. San Diego is allowing opponents to score only 69 points per game, and they've been terrific guarding on the perimeter, where opponents make just 25% of their three-point shots. Moreover, San Diego is 6-1 in the Under in their last 7 against Big West opponents, so I'm taking the Under in this one.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Sean Jackson

Sean Jackson is a freelance writer based out of Fort Myers. Prior to joining our team here at StatSalt and Winners & Whiner, Sean was a national college football columnist with the Score. We are very glad to have Sean as a part of our team as he is a solid and confident handicapper. Let Sean win for you.