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UT Arlington vs. Missouri Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 12-4-2018

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#731 UT Arlington
Mavericks 135.5
#732 Missouri
Tigers -12

Tuesday, December 4, 2018 at 8:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

UT Arlington Mavericks

3 - 5

16-14
ATS
19-12
O/U
77
PPG
73
OPPG

Missouri Tigers

4 - 3

16-16
ATS
12-19
O/U
72
PPG
68
OPPG

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Check out our top plays on today’s Deep 3:

UT-Arlington at Missouri

When and Where: Tuesday, Dec. 4, Mizzou Arena, Columbia, Mo., 8 p.m. EST.

Having picked up a needed victory, Missouri looks to further that momentum Tuesday night when it continues a five-game homestand versus Texas-Arlington.

Mavericks rebuilding under first-year coach Ogden

This version of UT-Arlington (3-5) is a far cry from the one that won 72 games over the previous three seasons and made two postseason appearances.

First-year coach Chris Ogden, who had been at Texas Tech the prior two seasons after 13 years and two stops with Rick Barnes, inherited a program that lost all five starters and featured just three players who had Division I experience.

As a result, the Mavericks have been slow to gel as they look to avoid a fifth consecutive loss in an ambitious non-conference schedule that has already seen losses at Arkansas, Indiana and still makes trips to No. 1 Gonzaga and Texas before Sun Belt play.

UT-Arlington is opening a stretch of five straight road games with this contest and is coming off a 76-65 defeat to Rio Grande Valley on Saturday. Andres Ibarguen scored 23 points on 10-of-12 shooting, but he got little help from his Mavericks teammates, who were a combined 12 for 44.

“We’re getting better. It may not seem like it when you lose a game, but I’m seeing progress. I believe in these guys,” Ogden told the school’s official website. “I told them in the locker room (after the game) that the most important thing right now is to get stronger and closer as a unit. We just need to keep working and preserve through it right now. It’s most important that we’re playing our best in February and March We’ll get there. I believe we will.”

Ibarguen has made an immediate impact since being declared eligible by the NCAA, as the junior forward has averaged 14.5 points and 9.0 rebounds in his first two games. UT-Arlington has done well on the boards with the 6-foot-5 Ibarguen, outrebounding its last two opponents by a combined 33.

The problem has been shooting and taking care of the ball. The Mavericks have gone a combined 4 for 32 from 3-point range in those games and are connecting at just 22.8 percent from beyond the arc overall. They are also committing 15.9 turnovers per game and have recorded at least 16 in every game during its skid.

Brian Warren and Edric Dennis lead UT-Arlington in scoring at 15.8 and 14.0 points per game, respectively. Overall, the Mavericks are shooting just under 40 percent.

Mizzou back on track with win over UCF

The hangover of losing to former Big 12 conference foe and then-No. 12 Kansas State in the final of the Paradise Jam carried over into the opener of this homestand as Missouri (4-3) lost to Temple. The Tigers, though, bounced back with a 64-62 overtime victory over UCF — the AAC preseason favorite — on Sunday.

Jordan Geist hit five 3-pointers, including one that forced overtime, and freshman Javon Pickett added a season-best 13 for Missouri, which hit more 3-pointers (12) than 2-pointers (11). The Tigers hit 12 of 29 from beyond the arc, continuing a torrid three-game run in which they have made 32 of 63 (50.8 percent).

Mitchell Smith added nine points off the bench, stepping up for an ineffective Kevin Puryear, who went 0 for 6 in the first half.

โ€œI just thought that Mitchell was one of our better flashers in the lane and he can shoot the three-point shots which is a different element,โ€ Tigers coach Cuonzo Martin told the Columbia Daily Tribune. โ€œI also thought he presented some different matchups for us in a positive way on defense.โ€

Geist is averaging a team-high 13.3 points, and Mark Smith is adding 12.1 per contest. The pair have combined for 32 of Missouri’s 57 3-pointers, and the Tigers are shooting an SEC-best 38.3 percent from deep.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Having already played four games decided by six points or fewer, including the first two games of this homestand, Missouri has yet to put together an overwhelming effort. The Mavericks are a better team since Ibarguen was cleared, and despite having three double-digit road losses, they were within two possessions in all three of those games with 10 minutes to play.

Prediction: Pick: UT-Arlington +11.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

The Tigers have topped 70 points just once this season, and that came in their loss to Temple. Missouri plays one of the slowest tempos in Division I according to KenPom, and though UT-Arlington is in the middle of the pack, the Mavericks have not scored more than 64 points in any of their three road games.

Prediction: Pick: UNDER 134.5 points

Full-Game Prop Bet
Rating:

Missouri has trailed by 10 and six points in the first two games of its homestand and has not led by more than four points after 20 minutes in any of its previous six games. The Mavericks have trailed by five or fewer points at halftime in each of their last three games, and two of those contests have been on the road.

Prediction: Pick: Texas-Arlington +7

Half-Time Side Pick
Rating:

This one will be close, but between Missouri’s deliberate tempo and UT-Arlington not being a good shooting team — not that the Tigers are a great overall shooting team at 41.9 percent — the expectation is both teams will have to work to reach 30 points. The Mavericks have topped out at 31 in the first half of their last four games, and Missouri has not been above 32 in its last four.

Prediction: Pick: UNDER 62.5 points

Chris Altruda (@AlTruda73)

A 1994 graduate of Marquette University when they were known as the Warriors and Brooklyn native, Chris Altruda is a freelance sportswriter based in Chicago. He has worked at three major U.S. wire services and also has prior experience in sports handicapping and daily fantasy roster building. Now that the Cubs have won a World Series, he holds out hope the Jets will win a Super Bowl before he dies. Can be followed on Twitter at @AlTruda73.

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