Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#689 Hofstra 137.5 vs.
#690 St. Bonaventure -3
Saturday, December 7, 2019 at 2:30pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

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#689 Hofstra University
#690 St. Bonaventure University
6-3
4-4
21-13
17-15-2
19-14-1
9-23-2
83
66
72
63

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The Hofstra Pride will travel to the Reilly Center in St. Bonaventure, New York for a non-conference clash against the St. Bonaventure Bonnies.

This game will close out a stretch of six straight games away from home for the Pride, who come in with a 6-3 record through their first nine contests. St. Bonaventure is hoping to continue its recent momentum after winning three straight to even up its record at 4-4 for the season. Can the Bonnies push their winning streak to four games with a victory at home over the Pride on Saturday afternoon?

Hofstra wins Boca Raton Beach Championship

Hofstra knocked off Canisius 64-57 on Thursday in the Boca Raton Beach Championship Game behind 19 points from Desure Buie. Tareq Coburn finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds while Eli Pemberton added 16 points and nine boards for the Pride, who won their second straight game.

Joe Milhalich’s squad has raced its way to a 6-2 record and they come in at No. 120 in the latest KenPom rankings. The Pride have scored 106.0 points per 100 possessions for the season (58th in the NCAA) while turning the ball over on just 16.7 percent of their offensive possessions (58th in the NCAA). Hofstra has also capitalized on their trips to the charity stripe, where they have shot a healthy 80.4 percent as a team (9th in the NCAA) this season. They get to the free-throw line at a high-rate too (65th in the NCAA), which has helped keep them in games even when their shots haven’t been falling.

On defense, the Pride have allowed 103.0 points per 100 possessions (247th in the NCAA) for the season while limiting their opponents to just 30.2 percent shooting from 3-point range (85th in the NCAA).

Lofton helping Bonnies erase 0-3 start

Kyle Lofton had 14 points and six assists to lead the Bonnies to a 71-64 win over Florida Atlantic on Monday night for their first road victory of the season. Dominick Welch scored a team-high 15 points on 5-of-9 shooting from 3-point range while Bobby Planutis added 14 points in the win. St. Bonaventure erased an early 17-point deficit by shooting 8-for-14 from beyond the arc as a team to extend its current winning streak to three games.

Following an 0-3 start, Mark Schmidt has led the Bonnies back to the .500 mark (4-4) through eight contests and the Bonnies enter the weekend ranked No. 144 in the latest KenPom rankings. Lofton leads the team in points (13.3) and assists (5.3) per game, but he’s struggled with his outside shot, hitting just 17.9 percent of his attempts from long-range.

St. Bonaventure has scored just 98.9 points per 100 possessions for the season (193rd in the NCAA) while allowing 97.8 points per 100 possessions on the defensive end of the floor (125th in the NCAA). Easy baskets have been hard to come by for the Bonnies, which has limited their efficiency on offense. They have shot just 44.7 percent from inside the arc (288th in the NCAA) and 31.6 percent from downtown (208th in the NCAA) as a team so far this season.

On defense, St. Bonaventure does a good job of forcing turnovers and defending the 3-point line. Opposing teams have coughed up the basketball 20.8 percent of the time against the Bonnies’ defense (112th in the NCAA). The Bonnies have also limited opposing teams to an effective field goal percentage of only 47.4 percent (120th in the NCAA), including just 30.3 percent shooting from 3-point range (87th in the NCAA).

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The Bonnies have been clicking on both ends of the floor as of late and they are starting to figure out their identity on offense. St. Bonaventure doesn’t shoot the ball well but they should get a few extra easy baskets against this Hofstra defense, which ranks 247th in the country with an adjusted 103.0 rating. Meanwhile, Hofstra hasn’t played many teams that are as strong defensively as St. Bonaventure. That has me leaning towards the Bonnies covering the spread at home in this non-conference clash on Saturday. 

Prediction: St. Bonaventure Bonnies

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This game will feature a contrast of styles. St. Bonaventure likes to slow the pace down and rely on its defense to keep them in games while Hofstra wants to push the tempo and get out in transition on offense. The Pride get their shots up in an average of just 15.9 seconds on offense (56th in the NCAA) and they have allowed opponents to get nearly whatever they’ve wanted from inside the arc. Opposing teams have shot 52.1 percent from 2-point range (264th in the NCAA) against Hofstra’s defense and St. Bonaventure does most of its damage from inside the 3-point line. That should help the Bonnies have a decent offensive performance and help push this game over the projected total on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.