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Alabama vs. Mississippi St Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 2-12-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#631 Alabama
Crimson Tide 151.5
#632 Mississippi St
Bulldogs -5.5

Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 9:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Alabama Crimson Tide

15 - 8

12-11
ATS
14-8
O/U
75
PPG
72
OPPG

Mississippi St Bulldogs

16 - 7

10-12
ATS
13-10
O/U
78
PPG
71
OPPG

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The Alabama Crimson Tide will travel on the road to Starkville, Mississippi as they prepare for a Southeastern Conference clash versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs at the Humphrey Coliseum on Tuesday evening.

Alabama comes in tied for fifth place in the SEC standings with a 6-4 mark through their first 10 games. ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has the Crimson Tide pegged as a No. 10-seed in his latest NCAA Tournament projections and he has seven SEC teams in his current bracket. Can the Crimson Tide improve their chances for an at-large bid with a road win against the Bulldogs on Tuesday night?

Crimson Tide improve to 6-4 in league play

Alabama improved to 6-4 in the SEC standings on Saturday with a timely 77-67 road victory versus Vanderbilt. Kira Lewis led the Crimson Tide in scoring with 18 points on the night, while Riley Norris chipped in 15 points and 12 boards for the Crimson Tide, who led by as many as 19 points

Avery Johnson’s squad comes in ranked No. 46 in the latest KenPom rankings following their 6-4 start in conference play. The Crimson Tide have scored 111.8 points per 100 possessions (40th in the NCAA) for the year and 106.9 points per 100 possessions during conference play (6th in the SEC). The Crimson Tide have been more careful with the basketball during conference play, turning the ball over on just 18.1 percent of their offensive possessions in SEC play (3th in the SEC). Alabama has shot 36.1 percent from beyond the arc (5th in the SEC) and they also sport at free throw rate of 38.5 percent (4th in the SEC) in league play.

On defense, Alabama has surrendered 97.6 points per 100 possessions for the season (70th in the NCAA) and 103.0 points per 100 possessions during conference play (4th in the SEC).

Bulldogs lose second straight heartbreaker at home

Mississippi State lost its second straight home game on Saturday, falling to Kentucky 71-67 in another heartbreaking defeat. Lamar Peters scored a team-high 16 points, while Quinndary Weatherspoon added 14 in a losing effort for the Bulldogs, who battled back from an 18-point deficit, but ultimately fell short late in the second half.

Ben Howland’s squad enters Tuesday’s matchup slotted at No. 26 in the latest KenPom rankings following their disappointing start to the conference season. Despite losing their last two conference games, the Bulldogs are still pegged as a No.7-seed in ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s latest NCAA Tournament projections. The Bulldogs come in scoring 116.2 points per 100 possessions for the season (18th in the NCAA), but that number has dipped to 106.6 points per 100 possessions during conference play (7th in the SEC). Mississippi State sports the third-best effective field goal percentage in the conference at 52.3 percent and they have shot a healthy 51.6 percent from inside the arc during league play (2nd in the SEC). Turnovers have held MSU back on offense during SEC play, where they have committed turnovers on an ugly 19.4 percent of their offensive possessions (10th in the SEC).

On defense, Mississippi State has allowed 97.6 points per 100 possessions (69th in the NCAA) for the year and 107.9 points per 100 possessions (11th in the SEC) during league play. SEC teams have managed to shoot a blistering 36.9 percent from beyond the arc versus the Bulldogs’ defense through their first 10 conference games (13th in the SEC).

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

The Crimson Tide have covered the spread in five of their last six meetings against the Bulldogs and four of their last five trips to Starkville. Alabama is fresh off of a road win against Vandy and three of their last four losses have come by five points or less. While I do believe the Bulldogs will win this matchup, six points seems like a big number to cover, especially following back-to-back heartbreaking losses. Take the Crimson Tide with the points on the road in this SEC battle on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide +5.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

These two teams have stayed under the projected total in 10 of their last 14 meetings and six of their last seven meetings in Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have gone under in 10 of their last 13 games versus a team with a winning record and the Crimson Tide have gone under in each of their last five road games. Look for this game to turn into a dogfight and take the under in this SEC battle in Starkville on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Under 151.5

Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits.

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