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No. 12 Purdue takes on No. 24 Maryland on Tuesday night at 6:30pmET in a huge Big 10 matchup from College Park, Md. The Boilermakers are 10-2, which places them second in the Big 10. Jerry Palm has them as a three seed in his latest Bracketology report, with Maryland at No. 6. The Terps are 9-4 in the Big 10, tied with Wisconsin for fourth place. The Boilermakers won the first meeting against the Terps, 62-60 on Dec. 6 from West Lafayette.
Painter’s best coaching job
Matt Painter is not going to get the credit that Tom Izzo or John Beilein gets in the Big 10 as an elite coach. But he has done an outstanding job with this Purdue program, having won 30 games last year and average of 26 wins per year over the last four. He also is just four wins away from moving into the Top 10 in wins in Big 10 history. This year, with just one returning starter, his program is back on track for another 24-26 wins. They’ve won eight straight after losing at Michigan State, 77-59 on Jan. 8.
On Saturday, Purdue beat up on Nebraska, 81-62 at home, dominating the smaller Cornhuskers on the class, 39-22. The Boilermakers shot 50.9 percent from the floor and 8-of-20 from the field, while holding the Huskers to just 38.2 percent shooting. Guard Carsen Edwards led the Boilermaker with 27 points on 8-of-16 shooting, while Grady Eifert added 16 points and seven boards.
— NBA G League (@nbagleague) February 11, 2019
Edwards has been the top player and one of the best in the Big 10 all season. He leads with 24.6 points, 3.4 assists and 1.7 steals. The key for Purdue is 6-9, 280-pound freshman Travion Williams (6.1, 4.1rpg), who needs to stay out of foul trouble when defending Maryland star center Bruno Fernando. On the season, Purdue averages 78.8 points per game on 45.9 percent shooting (38.2% 3pt). On defense, they are solid, allowing 68.4 points per game on 43.2 percent shooting (36.5% 3pt). They rank third in the Big 10 in rebounding margin at +4.9, first in three-pointers made (10.5) per game and fourth in turnover margin (+2.9).
Terps get much-needed rest
Maryland hasn’t played since Feb. 6, when they beat Nebraska, 60-45 on the road. That was a solid win, considering the Terps were slumping, coming off losing three of four games. Maryland shot the ball poorly (37.9%), but they held the Cornhuskers to a dismal 21.1 percent. Freshman forward Jalen Smith led the Terps with 18 points and 11 rebounds and Fernando added 13 points and 19 rebounds. The Terps outrebounded the Huskers, 53-38 which is no surprise as they lead the league in rebounding margin at +10.4.
— Maryland Basketball (@TerrapinHoops) February 8, 2019
Part of the Terps’ issue is taking care of the basketball. They average 13.1 turnovers per game and rank last in the league in turnover margin at -3.3. On the season, Cowan leads the Terps with 16.2 points per game and 4.5 assists, while Fernando leads in rebounds with 10.7 per game and in blocks with 2.0. Maryland averages 73.8 points per game on 46.4 percent shooting ( 37% 3pt). They allow 64.9 points per game (37th) on 40 percent shooting (25th) and 32.5 percent three-point shooting (94th).
- 9-3-1 ATS last 13 Tuesday games.
- 4-2-1 ATS last 7 in series.
- 5-2 Under last 7 in series.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Maryland needs this one badly because they face Michigan and Iowa on the road in their next two games. The Terps shot just 35 percent from the field in the first meeting and lost by just two points. They outrebounded the Boilermakers by nine but 16 turnovers cost them. At home, the Terps are much more comfortable, where they are 12-2. Purdue is 3-4 on the road and in their eight-game winning streak, they have won in overtime in two of their three road games at Penn State and Wisconsin.
Prediction: Maryland +1
Full-Game Total Pick
The first game produced just 122 points but the total is 143. Maryland is one of the best defensive teams in the Big 10 and lost of it has to do with Fernando and Jalen Smith in the paint. The Terps have gone under in five of seven games. Purdue is 7-3 Under their last 10 after an ATS win and 5-2 Under their last 7 vs. Maryland.
Prediction: Under 143
Half-Time Side Pick
Purdue is playing their best basketball of the season. They are so confident that a road trip to Maryland will start out well. It won’t end well but I expect them to play well in the first half and for Maryland to show a bit of rust since they haven’t played in nearly a week.
Prediction: Purdue -1 first half
Half-Time Total Bet
Maryland’s offense is pretty basic. Get the ball to Fernando or Jalen Smith inside and then hope they don’t get doubled. Purdue may have to double in the first half and that will lead to turnovers. The Boilermakers won’t be able to do much inside against that duo so I’m going under here.
Prediction: Under 66.5