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Nevada vs. Boise St,
2-14-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#787 Nevada
Wolf Pack 150.5
#788 Boise State
Broncos -3

Wednesday, February 14, 2018 at 11:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Nevada Wolf Pack

21 - 5

12-12
ATS
13-12
O/U
82
PPG
71
OPPG

Boise State Broncos

20 - 5

13-11
ATS
11-13
O/U
78
PPG
68
OPPG

Betting Trends

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Nevada heads to Boise State to take on the Broncos in a huge game on Wednesday night.  First place in the Mountain West will be at stake and with only five games left in the regular season, this may well decide who wins the conference.  Both teams are likely to make the NCAA tournament, but a few losses down the stretch could put that in jeopardy, making Wednesday all the more important.

The road Wolfpack are currently 21-5 overall and 10-2 in the Mountain West, holding down a half game lead.  The Broncos are a half game back at 10-3 and are 20-5 overall.  This is a rematch of a game played back on January 20th, a back and forth game that Nevada eventually won at home by a score of 74-68.   This figures to be just as hard fought as that game was.

Nevada bounces back

Two games back, Nevada lost at home to UNLV and looked vulnerable in a place they had won 16 straight games.  The loss dropped the Wolfpack back to second place in the Mountain West, but a Boise State loss to Utah State has the Wolfpack back in the top spot.  They responded from the loss to UNLV and came out and put a whooping on San Diego State, hammering them 83-58 on Saturday.

They were tied at halftime and looked to be in another dogfight, but absolutely crushed them in the second half, 48-23 to win going away.  They were led by their defense who held the Aztecs to only 33% shooting from the field.  On the offensive end, Jordan Caroline made eight of 14 from the field and 10 of 11 from the line to finish with 26 points.

Broncos give first place back

Boise State was gifted first place when UNLV went into Nevada and beat the Wolfpack, but it didn’t last long as the Broncos lost their very next game, 71-65 to Utah State which broke a four game winning streak.  The win took the Aggies to 7-6 in the Mountain West, but it’s still not a game the Broncos should lose.  They had a seven point halftime lead until the Aggies outscored them 44-31 in the second half to win the game.

Senior guard Chandler Hutchinson definitely wasn’t to blame.  The likely Mountain West player of the year, hit 11 of 17 shots and finished with 28 points and six boards.  He’s been great all year long and is putting up averages of 20.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game.  They need a big game from him on Wednesday.

The Nevada Wolf Pack are:

  • 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

The Boise State Broncos are:

  • 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

I’ve been a long time bettor and supporter of Nevada, but I think having lost the first match will really benefit the Broncos and give them the added motivation to win.

Pick: Boise State

Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.

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