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William & Mary takes on Elon on Saturday night in North Carolina. The Tribe are 9-16 overall and 5-8 in the CAA, which ties them with Towson for 6th place. Elon is 4-9 in the league, to tie them for eighth place with James Madison. In their first meeting, Elon won this one on the road, 76-71 from Williamsburg. Both teams had the week off.
Solid effort at Hofstra
William & Mary has no problem scoring the basketball. They struggled in losses at Northeastern (72-60) and Charleston (74-59), but against the lesser defensive teams in the CAA, they’ve produced on offense. In their last game, they fell at No. 1 Hofstra, 93-87. The Tribe led at the half, 44-40 and then allowed 53 points in the second half. The bottom line for William & Mary was that they couldn’t stop Justin Wright-Forman, who had a career-high 48 points on 16-for-24 points (7-12 3pt). Nathan Knight had a huge game for the Tribe with a career-high 39 points and 14 rebounds. The Tribe shot 58.1 percent from the field and shot just 5-of-13 from three-point range (10-18 FT). They turned the ball over too many times (15) and allowed the Pride to shoot 51.8 percent from the field.
— William & Mary MBB (@WMTribeMBB) February 10, 2019
Knight (6-10, 245) leads the Tribe in scoring (20ppg), assists (3.7), rebounds (8.6), field goal percentage (58.4%) and blocks (2.0). On the season, W&M averages 74.6 points per game on 47.2 percent shooting (34.1% 3pt). They allow 46.3 percent shooting (8th in CAA) and 37.3 percent from the three-point line (8th).
Not making strides
At one point, Elon had won two straight and three of four games. It looked as though they were going to at least get out of the bottom of the league. But the schedule got tougher and they fell at home to Drexel by four, Hofstra by 41 on the road and Northeastern in overtime last Saturday from Boston. The week off probably isn’t enough to heal the wounds from that loss to the Huskies. The Phoenix played the league’s second-best team toe-to-toe and had several chances to win the game late. But they couldn’t get in done in regulation and wound up losing 72-60 in overtime, failing to score in the extra stanza. Steven Santa Anta and Sheldon Eberhardt had 12 points apiece to lead Elon, who shot just 35.2 percent from the floor and just 3-of-10 from the line. They were crushed on the boards by nine and lost the three-point battle (10-7).
This is a veteran Phoenix team led by senior Tyler Seibring, who averages 16.3 points per game on 50.2 percent shooting. Offensively, Elon is not spectacular by any means. They average just 68.8 points per game (9th in CAA), shoot 68.7% from the line (8th), 34.2 percent from beyond the arc (7th) and 43 percent from the field (10th). Defensively, Elon has struggled, allowing 76.3 points per game (288th) on 45.1 percent shooting (264th) and 36.6 percent three-point shooting (303rd).
- 4-17 ATS last 21 after an ATS win.
- 10-21 ATS last 31 overall.
- 19-9-1 ATS last 29 Saturday games.
- 38-18-2 ATS last 58 after a SU loss.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I really like William & Mary here. They are playing better basketball and even though they lost that first game, they had won three straight previously and covered three straight. They have an advantage down low with Knight and if you double him or go zone, the Tribe will kill you from three-point range. I’d go five here if the line came out as even but with W&M as a 3-point favorite, I still have confidence in the Tribe.
Prediction: W&M -3
Full-Game Total Pick
For some reason, these games have gone under in four of five in this series. The best chance for Elon to win this game is to play a slower tempo game. The Phoenix have gone under in three of four games and six of eight. The Tribe have gone under in three of five. The under is 8-2 the last 10 in this series. Elon is 10-3 Under their last 13 overall and 5-1 Under their last 6 home games.
Prediction: Under 145