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Bradley vs. Valaparaiso,
2-17-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#637 Bradley
Braves 132
#638 Valaparaiso
Crusaders -2.5

Saturday, February 17, 2018 at 9:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Bradley Braves

18 - 10


Valaparaiso Crusaders

13 - 15


The Bradley Braves will head on the road for a Missouri Valley Conference showdown against the Valparaiso Crusaders on Saturday night.

Braves getting to free throw line at a high rate

The Braves snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday night, knocking off Illinois State 70-58 behind a strong game from Donte Thomas. Thomas finished with 14 points and 10 rebounds on the night, while Darrell Brown added 13 points for the Braves, who never trailed in the win.

Bradley enters the weekend scoring 101.6 points per 100 possessions during conference play (6th in the MVC), while allowing 101.8 points per 100 possessions on the defensive end (5th in the MVC).

Opposing teams have connected on just 46.5 percent of their two-point attempts (1st in the MVC) against the Braves’ defense, which has helped them limit their opponents to an effective field goal percentage of just 49.0 percent during league play (3rd in the MVC).

On offense, Bradley does a good job of crashing the offensive glass and getting to the free throw line at a high rate. The Braves own an offensive rebounding rate of 30.4 percent (2nd in the MVC) and a free throw rate of 36.3 percent (1st in the MVC) through 15 conference games this season.

Crusaders struggling with turnovers

Valparaiso is fresh off of a tough 80-71 loss on the road to Loyola Chicago on Wednesday night. Tevvon Walker scored 18 points, while Markus Golder and Jaume Sorolla finished with 12 points apiece to help pace the Crusaders on offense.

The Crusaders come in scoring 95.8 points per 100 possessions (9th in the MVC) and turning the ball over 21.2 percent of their offensive possessions (9th in the MVC). Opposing teams are scoring 100.9 points per 100 possessions (3rd in the MVC), while shooting just 31.9 percent from three-point range against the Crusaders’ defense (2nd in the MVC) so far this season.

Valparaiso has struggled to generate consistent offense this year. The team has shot just 48.9 percent from inside the arc (6th in the MVC), 33.5 percent from three-point range (6th in the MVC) and just 69.1 percent from inside the free throw line (8th in the MVC) so far during league play. Valpo also owns an offensive rebounding rate of 23.3 percent (7th in the MVC) and a free throw rate of 33.4 percent (7th in the MVC) through 15 conference games.



  • Braves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
  • Braves are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win.


  • Crusaders are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.

The Braves were one of the surprise teams in the MVC earlier this season, but they came back down to earth after losing three straight games to start the month of February. Bradley is the top two-point percentage defense in the conference and Valpo hasn’t shot the three-ball well this season. Look for the Braves to go on the road and cover the spread in this MVC showdown on Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Bradley Braves

Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits.


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