Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#831 Siena College -4 vs.
#832 Fairfield 128.5
Sunday, February 23, 2020 at 2:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

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The Siena Saints will travel to Webster Bank Arena in Bridgeport, Connecticut for a Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference battle versus the Fairfield Stags on Sunday afternoon.

These two teams met back at the beginning of February with Siena beating Fairfield 65-49. Since then, the Saints have gone on to win their next three games to enter this matchup riding a four-game winning streak. Meanwhile, Fairfield has won two of its last three games to enter with a 7-8 overall mark in MAAC play. Can Fairfield get its revenge at home against Siena on Sunday afternoon?

Siena escapes with narrow win vs. Iona

After leading by as many as 13 points, Siena escaped with a narrow 65-64 victory over Iona on Wednesday night. Manny Camper scored a team-high 21 points while Elijah Burns chipped in 19 points for the Saints, who led by as many as 13 points before withstanding a second-half Gaels run.

Carm Maciariello’s squad comes into Sunday’s battle with the Stags ranked No. 169 in the latest KenPom rankings after improving to 10-5 in MAAC play. Siena has scored 105.2 points per 100 possessions for the season (169th in the NCAA) and a league-high 107.0 points per 100 possessions during conference play. The Saints sport the second-best effective field goal percentage in the MAAC at 52.2 percent and they have been dangerous on the offensive glass, hauling in an impressive 33.6 percent of their missed field goal attempts (1st in the MAAC). They have turned the ball over just 19.5 percent o the time (4th in the MAAC) while shooting 51.7 percent from inside the arc (2nd in the MAAC) during league play.

On defense, Siena has given up 105.0 points per 100 possessions for the season (245th in the NCAA) and 100.2 points per 100 possessions versus MAAC opponents (7th in the MAAC). The Saints have limited league opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 48.1 percent (4th in the MAAC) and just 31.3 percent shooting from 3-point range (2nd in the MAAC).

Fairfield erases big deficit in win vs. Niagara

Fairfield knocked off Niagara 61-60 on Friday night behind 14 points from Taj Benning, who scored the game-winner with 11.1 seconds remaining. Landon Taliaferro scored 12 points and Allan Jeanne-Rose added 11 for the Stags, who overcame a 17-point deficit to escape with the win.

Jay Young’s squad enter the weekend ranked No. 292 in the latest KenPom rankings after creeping back towards the .500-mark in MAAC play. The Stags have struggled on offense, scoring just 89.9 points per 100 possessions for the season (341st in the NCAA) and a league-worst 89.1 points per 100 possessions during conference play (11th in the MAAC). Fairfield sports the worst effective field goal percentage in the conference at 41.9 percent and it has turned the ball over on 22.3 percent of its possessions during league play (10th in the MAAC). Through 13 MAAC contests, the Stags have shot just 42.1 percent from 2-point range (10th in the MAAC) and 27.6 percent from behind the 3-point line (11th in the MAAC).

On defense, the Stags have given up 100.5 points per 100 possessions for the season (144th in the NCAA) and 97.2 points per 100 possessions versus league opponents (5th in the MAAC).

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Siena destroyed Fairfield at home earlier this month and the Saints have suddenly won seven of their last eight games. They rank second in effective field goal percentage and first in offensive rebounding rate, which should be enough for them to make a difference in this game. Fairfield has struggled on offense, ranking near the bottom of the country in 2-point shooting, 3-point shooting, and turnover rate. Take Siena to cover the number on the road in this MAAC battle on Sunday.

Prediction: Siena Saints

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Fairfield is comfortable with slowing the pace down on offense. The Stags rank 342nd in the nation in adjusted tempo and 348th in average possession length while Siena ranks outside the top-150 in both categories. That should lend itself to a fairly slow-paced game and these teams didn’t even combine for 115 points in the first matchup earlier this month. Look for this game to stay under the projected total on Sunday afternoon.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.