Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#829 Wisconsin-Milwaukee -1.5 vs.
#830 Detroit 145.5
Sunday, February 23, 2020 at 1:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

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The Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers will travel to Calihan Hall on Sunday afternoon as they prepare for a Horizon League showdown against the Detroit Mercy Titans.

Detroit hasn’t won a conference game since Jan. 25 but one of its six victories came against the Panthers. These two teams met back on Jan. 16 with Detroit emerging with a 90-84 victory. Milwaukee will be trying to snap a two-game slide after a loss earlier this weekend. Can the Panthers get their revenge on the road against the Titans on Sunday?

Panthers lose second straight, fall short vs. Oakland

Milwaukee was unable to get back on the winning track on Friday, falling short on the road 75-68 versus Oakland. Darius Roy scored 18 points and six rebounds while DeAndre Abram added 16 points off of the bench for the Panthers, who shot 10-for-32 from beyond the arc in the loss.

Pat Baldwin’s squad comes into the weekend slotted at No. 256 in the latest KenPom rankings after dropping five of their last seven games. The Panthers have scored 95.1 points per 100 possessions for the season (297th in the NCAA) and 98.9 points per 100 possessions during conference play (9th in the Horizon). Milwaukee has taken 40.5 percent of their shots from 3-point range during league play (3rd in the Horizon) but it has connected at a rate of only 31.5 percent (9th in the Horizon).

On defense, Milwaukee has given up 102.9 points per 100 possessions on the year (190th in the NCAA) and 101.7 points per 100 possessions versus Horizon League opponents (4th in the Horizon). The Panthers have forced league opponents to turn the ball over 20.2 percent of the time (2nd in the Horizon) while holding them to an offensive rebounding rate of just 28.7 percent (2nd in the Horizon).

Titans extend slide to six games vs. Green Bay

Detroit dropped its sixth straight game on Friday, falling at home to Green Bay 84-67 despite 29 points from sophomore Antoine Davis. Marquis Moore scored 13 points and Dwayne Rose added 12 for the Titans, who shot just 35.5 percent from the field and 4-for-15 from deep on the night.

Mike Davis is in the midst of a tough year in Detroit. The Titans have won just six of their first 28 games, including just four of their 15 Horizon League contests and they come into Sunday’s contest ranked No. 308 in the latest KenPom rankings. Detroit has scored 98.2 points per 100 possessions for the season (242nd in the NCAA) and 101.6 points per 100 possessions during Horizon League play (6th in the Horizon). The Titans sport an effective field goal percentage of 47.3 percent (10th in the Horizon) and have turned the ball over 19.7 percent of the time (9th in the Horizon) during league play. They do most of their damage from beyond the arc but have shot a dismal 32.1 percent from 3-point range (8th in the Horizon) during conference play.

On defense, Detroit has surrendered 110.6 points per 100 possessions for the season (323rd in the NCAA) and 107.2 points per 100 possessions versus league opponents. Horizon League teams have knocked down a red-hot 37.9 percent of their 3-point shots against the Titans’ defense so far this year (9th in the Horizon).

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Milwaukee will be seeking some revenge after losing at home to Detroit earlier this season. The Panthers excel at forcing turnovers and holding teams to just one shot on defense, which should give them a chance on the road here. Detroit owns the worst effective field goal percentage in the Horizon League at 47.3 percent and the second-worst turnover rate. The Titans also struggle to defend the 3-point shot, which is where the Panthers tend to do most of their damage on the offensive end. Take Milwaukee to cover the number on the road in Detroit on Sunday.

Prediction: Milwaukee Panthers

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Milwaukee ranks in the top-100 in adjusted tempo and average possession length on offense. Meanwhile, Detroit has averaged about 17.9 seconds per offensive possession, which ranks 223rd in the nation. These two teams combined for 174 points in their previous meeting but that seems like an anomaly. Detroit has scored 67 points or less in four of its last six games and Milwaukee ranks among the worst offensive teams in the conference, so we should get a low-scoring game here. Take the under in this Horizon League showdown on Sunday.

Prediction: Under

Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.