Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#7941 Bowling Green vs.
#7942 Eastern Michigan (EMU)
Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 7:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

The Bowling Green Falcons will head on the road to the Convocation Center in Ypsilanti, Michigan on Tuesday evening for a Mid-American Conference clash versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles.

After a 10-3 start, Bowling Green endured a six-game conference losing streak before winning its last two games. The Falcons are seated in sixth-place in the MAC standings with a 12-9 overall record and an 8-7 mark in conference play. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan has had a hard enough time staying on the court. The Eagles are 4-9 and 1-8 in conference play but have not been able to get into a rhythm due to several COVID-19 disruptions. Eastern Michigan recently returned from a long layoff to push its current slide to five games.

Can Eastern Michigan snap its skid at home against Bowling Green on Saturday?

Falcons looking to finish strong

Bowling Green pulled off a 75-62 win on the road against Ball State last week behind 27 points from senior Justin Turner. Freshman guard Kaden Matheny added 21 points and Daeqwon Plowden added 11 points and four blocks for the Falcons, who led by as many as 16 points despite shooting just 7-for-27 from beyond the arc on the night.

Michael Huger’s squad comes into the weekend slotted at No. 129 in the latest KenPom rankings after riling off its second straight win. The Falcons have scored 107.9 points per 10 possessions for the season (90th in the NCAA) and 106.1 points per 100 possessions versus league opponents (seventh in the MAC). Bowling Green has turned the ball over a league-low 13.3 percent of the time but the Falcons have not been able to shoot the ball efficiently during conference play. Though 15 MAC contests, they have knocked down just 48.3 percent of their shots from inside the arc (10th in the MAC) and 30.6 percent of their shots from 3-point range (10th in the MAC).

On defense, the Falcons have surrendered 103.2 points per 100 possessions for the season (179th in the NCAA) and 103.3 points per 100 possessions during league play (fourth in the MAC). Bowling Green has forced MAC teams to cough up the basketball 19.0 percent of the time, the third-highest rate in the conference.

Eastern Michigan returns from layoff with loss vs. Kent State

Eastern Michigan returned to the court from nearly a one-month long absence on Saturday but fell short 64-51 on the road against Kent State. Yeikson Montero finished with a team-high 15 points while Ty Groce added 13 points and eight boards for the Eagles, who shot just 5-for-19 from 3-point range in the loss.

Rob Murphy’s squad comes into Tuesday’s matchup slotted at No. 262 in the latest KenPom rankings despite having just one D-I win on its current resume. As you might expect from a team with three separate COVID-19 incidents, the Eagles have struggled on both ends of the floor this year.

Eastern Michigan has scored just 97.6 points per 100 possessions for the season (271st in the NCAA) but that mark has dropped to a MAC-low 92.5 points per 100 possessions during conference play (12th in the MAC). The Eagles sport the worst effective field goal percentage in the MAC at 44.5 percent and they have shot a league-worst 27.0 percent from 3-point range.

On defense, the Eagles have watched their adjusted defensive rating jump from 105.9 (239th in the NCAA) to 115.7 points per 100 possessions versus league opponents (12th in the MAC). Eastern Michigan also owns the worst effective field goal percentage defense in the conference at 59.2 percent.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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It’s hard to trust the Eagles at home here. Eastern Michigan has beaten just one D-I team this season and it will be playing in just its second game over the past month. The Eagles have struggled on defense, especially in the painted area, which is good news for the Falcons, who do most of their damage from inside the arc. Bowling Green has also been stout defensively and the Falcons force turnovers at a high rate, which should help them pull away on the road in this spot. Take Bowling Green to cover the spread in this MAC contest on Tuesday evening. 

Prediction: Bowling Green Falcons -8

Full-Game Total Pick

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Eastern Michigan has been the worst team in the MAC on both ends of the floor but last week’s 51-point performance against Kent State was a little underwhelming, even by the Eagles’ low standards. Bowling Green likes to push the pace, ranking third in the conference in adjusted tempo and average possession length on offense. The Falcons also do a good job of taking care of the basketball, which bodes well for the total in this spot. Take this MAC matchup to go over the projected total in Ypsilanti on Tuesday evening.

Prediction: Over 146.5
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Written By Nick Raffoul , "Nick Raffoul"

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.