Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#7949 Iowa State vs.
#7950 Baylor
Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 8:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

The Iowa State Cyclones will travel to the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas on Tuesday night for a Big 12 Conference battle versus the No. 2-ranked Baylor Bears.

Heading into the final week of the regular season, the Cyclones are still in search of their first Big 12 win. On the other hand, Baylor comes in with an undefeated 9-0 mark in conference play but will be coming off of another extended three-week layoff after a battle with COVID-19.

Can the Bears stay hot at home in their return to action against Iowa State on Tuesday night?

Cyclones push skid to 12 games

Iowa State dropped its 12th straight game on Saturday night, falling short at home 66-56 versus Oklahoma. Rasir Bolton finished with a team-high 14 points and Jalen Coleman-Lands added 13 points and five assists in the loss.

Steve Prohm is in the midst of his worst campaign in six seasons in Ames, Iowa. Prohm has guided the Cyclones to a 2-16 overall record and an 0-13 start to the Big 12 season with just two games remaining on the regular-season schedule.

Iowa State has struggled on both ends of the floor and things have gotten even worse for the Cyclones during the conference season. Prohm’s squad has scored 101.6 points per 100 possessions for the season (199th in the NCAA) but that mark has dipped to 91.1 points per 100 possessions during Big 12 play (ninth in the Big 12). Through 13 conference games, the Cyclones own an effective field goal percentage of just 47.0 percent (eighth in the Big 12) and they have turned the ball over on 20.5 percent of their offensive possessions during the conference season (seventh in the Big 12). They also rank dead-last in the Big 12 in offensive rebounding rate and free-throw rate, which has hurt their overall efficiency.

On defense, Iowa State has given up 101.1 points per 100 possessions for the year (137th in the NCAA) and 109.4 points per 100 possessions versus league opponents (ninth in the Big 12). The Cyclones have also been the worst defensive rebounding team in the conference, sporting a defensive rebounding rate of only 64.7 percent.

Bears looking to return to court following three-week absence

Baylor last took the court on Feb. 2 and escaped with an 83-69 victory on the road against Texas. Junior guard Jared Butler leads the team in scoring at 17.0 points per game on 49.3 percent shooting from the field and 44.6 percent shooting from 3-point range.

Scott Drew’s squad comes into the weekend slotted at No. 2 in the latest KenPom rankings and No. 2 in the current AP Top-25 Polls. The Bears have scored 123.8 points per 100 possessions for the season (fourth in the NCAA) and a Big-12-high 118.2 points per 100 possessions versus league opponents (first in the Big 12). Baylor leads the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 59.8 percent and it has also hauled in a league-high 35.5 percent of its missed field goal attempts on the offensive glass.

On defense, Baylor has given up 88.8 points per 100 possessions for the year (sixth in the NCAA) and 91.2 points per 100 possessions versus Big 12 teams (first in the Big 12). The Bears have forced teams to turn the ball over a league-high 25.1 percent of the time while holding them to an effective field goal percentage of just 48.1 percent (fourth in the Big 12).

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


Baylor will be playing its first game in nearly three weeks, the Bears will get lucky in this spot with a tune-up of sorts against the hapless Cyclones. Baylor should have no issues winning this game in a blowout but this number might be a bit too high in this spot. Iowa State comes into this matchup desperate for its first conference victory of the season and the Cyclones have put up a fight during league play with seven of their 13 losses coming by nine points or fewer. Given the long layoff, take Iowa State to cover the number on the road in this Big 12 Conference battle on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Iowa State Cyclones +24

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


Iowa State has struggled defensively and it plays at one of the fastest tempos in the conference. The Cyclones rank second in the conference in adjusted tempo and fifth in average possession length on offense. They have also struggled on the defensive glass, which should give Baylor plenty of second-chance opportunities in this one. Speaking of the Bears, they rank as the conference’s top offensive team and play fairly fast as well. Baylor sits at No. 5 in the Big 12 in adjusted tempo and fourth in average possession length on offense. Take this game to go over the projected total on Tuesday.

Prediction: Over 147

Written By Nick Raffoul , "Nick Raffoul"

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.