Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#7971 Dayton vs.
#7972 St. Josephs
Wednesday, February 24, 2021 at 6:00pm EST
Written by Blake V.

Saint Joseph’s finally picked up its first Atlantic 10 win of the season on Saturday—it will be looking for its second when it hosts Dayton on Wednesday night. The Flyers bounced back from a pair of losses with a 76-53 win over Saint Louis. These teams were originally scheduled to play on Feb. 13, but the game was postponed due to COVID-19 issues within the Hawks’ program.

Flyers struggling with consistency

Dayton has struggled with consistency throughout the season. The Flyers have shown flashes of being one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10, as evidenced by a stretch in which they won five out of six games in January. They picked up wins over Davidson, Saint Louis and Rhode Island during the hot stretch. However, they went on to lose three of their next four games. They bounced back with a 76-53 blowout win against Saint Louis, despite being 5.5-point underdogs. Dayton has shot the ball very well this season, listed at No. 25 in effective field goal percentage (55.2).

The Flyers have not done a good job of taking care of the ball, though, and they have also failed to have much success on the offensive glass. They will be facing a Saint Joseph’s defense that has been atrocious, listed outside the top 240 in all four of KenPom’s key metrics. Senior guard Jalen Crutcher leads Dayton with 18.9 points and 4.9 assists per game. He had 19 points, six assists and five rebounds in Friday’s win over Saint Louis. Senior guard Ibi Watson is scoring 15.7 points and has scored at least 14 in each of his last four games. Freshman forward Mustapha Amzil is adding 10.0 points and 5.4 rebounds.

Hawks happy to have Daly back

Saint Joseph’s finally picked up its first Atlantic 10 win of the season over the weekend. The Hawks had lost their previous nine conference outings and their only win of the year had come over Albany in early January. They had been without senior guard Ryan Daly since December, though. He led the conference in scoring with 20 points per game last season and poured in 30 points in his return to the court on Saturday. He will be a huge boost to a Saint Joseph’s offense that is No. 217 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings.

The Hawks have been awful from beyond the arc, knocking down just 30.4 percent of their attempts. They are facing a Dayton defense that has been average, listed at No. 77 nationally in efficiency. Daly is Saint Joseph’s leading scorer with 19.3 points, but he has only played in six games. Junior guard Taylor Funk is averaging 16.4 points and 5.8 rebounds. He had 20 points in Saturday’s win. Sophomore guard Jack Forrest was scoring 11.2 points per game, but he has been out since late January with a leg injury. Forrest is listed as questionable for Wednesday’s tilt.

Best Bets for this Game

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I believe Saint Joseph’s is undervalued right now due to injury news. The college basketball betting market is not nearly as efficient as the NBA or NFL, meaning it can be slow to adjust to injury information. Daly’s return to the court completely changes the complexion of this team. He led the conference in scoring last season and poured in 30 in his first game back. He is clearly healthy and is ready to go. Dayton has been wildly inconsistent this year and if it plays a poor game on Wednesday, Saint Joseph’s is primed to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Saint Joseph's

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

These teams have both been flying over the total and Daly’s return makes this an even more obvious bet on the over. He provides a huge scoring threat that Saint Joseph’s has been lacking. The Hawks are still going to struggle on the defensive end, though, which makes this a great bet. They also like to play up-tempo, listed at No. 70 in average possession length. Dayton has been shooting really well all season, but the Flyers have not been as strong on the defensive end. Saint Joseph’s has gone over in 14 of its last 20 games, while Dayton has gone over in four of its last five.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Blake Von Hagen , "Blake V."

Blake is a lifelong sports fan and hoops junkie. Prior to joining our team at Winners & Whiners and StatSalt, Blake worked for several newspapers and websites. He enjoys combining his beat writing expertise with the knack for finding the winning edge in a matchup. Remember, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.