Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#801 Siena College -3 vs.
#802 Quinnipiac 144
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 7:00pm EST
Written by The Stash

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MAAC action here as the Quinnipiac Bobcats host the Siena Saints. Sienna is locked in a tight race for the conference title so this game means everything to them, while Quinnipiac is in the middle of the pack at 7-9 in MAAC play. Oddsmakers have the Saints as a modest road favorite for this one, which will be streamed by ESPN+.

Siena Fighting For Title

Siena has been having a very solid season, and they have come a long way. Just two years ago they finished 8-24, so the fact that they are now competing for the MAAC title is very impressive. They entered this one a half-game back of the Saint Peter's Peacocks for first place, so they need each of their last four games like blood. They have been surging recently, winning eight of their last nine games with the only loss coming on the road against the aforementioned Peacocks. They haven't just been winning games they've been dominating them, as five of those eight recent wins came by at least 13 points. That includes when they first played his very same Quinnipiac team about a month ago, as they blew out the Bobcats by 23 points.

They rank 104th in overall offensive efficiency according to advanced analytics site kenpom.com, a very significant achievement for a MAAC program. Despite playing at a pretty slow pace they still put up a ton of points, and they have four different guys averaging at least 10.7 points per game. One thing I like about this Siena team is that they have a ton of length. In fact, eight of their top nine scorers this season are at least 6'4. That helps them get into passing lanes and force steals. Since they are a young team they understandably struggled on defense early in the year, but they have really stepped it up on that end of the floor lately. In eight of their last nine games, they have held their opponent to 64 or fewer points.

Quinnipiac On A Skid

Quinnipiac is currently stuck in a state of mediocrity. They were right around .500 last year, and they will be lucky to get back to that mark this time around. With four games left to play, they enter this one at 12-14. They started conference play off hot but have collapsed recently, losing six of their last seven games. Their only win in that span came by just two points at home against a Canisius team that is at the bottom of the conference standings. They've been brutal against the spread as well, failing to cover the number in each of their last seven games. They are going up against a tough Siena offense here that is the best in the MAAC easily, and unfortunately for Quinnipiac, they might have the conference's worst defense.

They rank 310th out of 353 D1 teams in overall defensive efficiency according to kenpom, and the issues have only been getting worse recently. In their most recent game, they gave up 89 points in a double-digit loss to a mediocre Monmouth team that doesn't have a particularly strong offense. Their perimeter defense has been terrible, and they allowed Monmouth to shoot 12-29 from downtown in that game. They also forced only eight turnovers while giving it up 17 times themselves. It's not like they are particularly impressive on offense either, as they shoot only 41.7 percent from the floor as a team. They have a talented lead scorer in junior guard Rich Kelly, but he doesn't get too much help.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I like Siena a lot here, and I think they're going to cover this spread easily. Quinnipiac has been absolutely terrible recently, and they have failed to cover the spread in seven straight games. Their defense is an absolute disaster, and now they're going up against by far the best offense in the conference. Sienna is still playing for a conference championship, while Quinnipiac doesn't have anything to play for but pride. The Saints have stepped it up on both sides of the ball recently, and they haven't had any issue playing on the road. There's no reason to back Quinnipiac here.

Prediction: Siena

Full-Game Total Pick

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I think the over also makes a lot of sense in this spot. Siena has the best offense in the conference, while Quinnipiac has one of the worst defenses in the nation. The Bobcats just gave up 89 points to a very mediocre Monmouth offense in their most recent game, so I can't even imagine what Sienna is going to do to them. Quinnipiac has given up at least 79 points in three of their past four games, and Siena scored 84 on them the last time these two teams played about a month ago.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Alex Porter , "The Stash"

Alex Porter is one of the premier minds in basketball and football handicapping. With a degree in statistics, Alex uses advanced metrics as well as copious amounts of film study to make his picks. Since starting his betting career at the age of 18, the recent college graduate has never had a losing football season. We are very glad to have Alex as a part of our team here at StatSalt.