Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#837 St. Josephs 143.5 vs.
#838 St. Louis -13
Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 9:00pm EST
Written by Nick Raffoul

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The Saint Joseph’s Hawks will travel on the road to Chaifetz Arena in St. Louis, Missouri on Wednesday night for an Atlantic 10 Conference clash versus the Saint Louis Billikens.

Saint Louis remains tied for fifth place in the A10 standings after getting back on the winning track over the weekend. The Billikens don’t have the resume to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament but they have built a strong NIT-profile. Meanwhile, Saint Joseph’s is trying to battle its way out of last place after winning just one of its first 14 conference games. Can Saint Louis close out the season strong with a win at home over Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday night?

Hawks fall short vs. George Mason despite 20 from Daly

Fresh off of its first conference win of the season, Saint Joseph’s was unable to sustain its momentum on Saturday, falling short on the road versus George Mason 62-55. Ryan Daly scored a team-high 20 points and Toliver Freeman added 10 for the Hawks, who shot just 33.9 percent from the field and 8-for-30 from the 3-point line in the loss.

Billy Lange’s first season in Philadelphia has been a challenging one, to say the least. The Hawks enter Wednesday’s matchup ranked No. 261 in the latest KenPom rankings after going 1-13 to start the A10 season. Saint Joseph’s has scored 100.4 points per 100 possessions for the season (197th in the NCAA) but that number has dipped to only 92.2 points per 100 possessions versus league opponents (13th in the A10). Through 14 league contests, the Hawks have turned the ball over 21.1 percent of the time (12th in the A10) while sporting an effective field goal percentage of only 45.3 percent (13th in the A10).

Getting stops on defense has been the real problem for the Hawks, who have allowed 108.6 points per 100 possessions for the season (309th in the NCAA) and a whopping 111.4 points per 100 possessions versus A10 teams (14th in the A10). Saint Joseph’s ranks dead-last in effective field goal percentage defense, 3-point defense, and defensive turnovers rate so far this year.

Perkins leads Billikens to win over VCU

Saint Louis cruised to an 80-62 victory at home over VCU on Friday night behind 25 points from junior Javonte Perkins. Hasahn French added 18 points and seven rebounds while Yuri Collins handed out 12 assists for the Billikens in the win.

Travis Ford’s squad enters this matchup slotted at No. 85 in the latest KenPom rankings after improving to 8-6 in A10 play. The Billikens have scored 105.3 points per 100 possessions for the season (106th in the NCAA) and 191.6 points per 100 possessions during conference play (7th in the A10). Saint Louis hasn’t shot the ball efficiently from the floor. Instead, the Billikens have been forced to make up points by crashing the offensive glass and getting to the free throw line. They sport the top offensive rebounding rate in the A10 at 33.1 percent and they get to the charity stripe at a healthy 38.8 percent clip (2nd in the A10). However, Saint Louis has shot just 48.8 percent from inside the arc (8th in the A10) and only 59.2 percent from the free throw line as a team (14th in the A10) during conference play.

On defense, Saint Louis has allowed 96.0 points per 100 possessions for the season (70th in the NCAA) and 98.8 points per 100 possessions versus league opponents (6th in the A10). The Billikens have limited league opponents to just 31.4 percent shooting from 3-point range (3rd in the A10) and an offensive rebounding rate of 24.4 percent (2nd in the A10).

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Ryan Daly scored 35 for Saint Joseph’s in the last matchup but the Hawks still fell short 78-73. It’s hard to see Daly getting quite as hot in this game for the Hawks, who rank near the bottom of the conference in nearly every major category on both ends of the floor. Saint Louis has lost only three home games all season and the Billikens have won their last three games at Chaifetz Arena by an average of 16.3 points per game. Look for Saint Louis to cover the number at home in this A10 battle on Wednesday night.



Prediction: Saint Louis Billikens

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Saint Joseph’s ranks near the bottom of the country on both ends of the floor but the Hawks aren’t afraid to push the pace. They rank 46th in the nation in adjusted tempo and 67th in average possession length on offense. On the other hand, Saint Louis comes in at No. 227 and No. 187, respectively, in those categories. While the Billikens rank on the other end of the pace spectrum, they should be able to have a strong offensive performance in this game. St. Joe’s has allowed at least 70 points in each of its conference home games this season, so I'll take my chances with the over in this A10 battle on Wednesday night.

Prediction: Over

Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.