Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#663 Monmouth vs.
#664 Stony Brook
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 7:00pm EST
Written by Ben the Pen

This article covers a past game!

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Red-hot Monmouth (4-20 SU, 9-15 ATS, 3-8 CAA) travels to Long Island to face Stony Brook (8-16 SU, 12-10 ATS, 4-7 CAA) on Wednesday night at 6:30pmET from Island Federal Credit Union Arena.

These teams met on Jan. 5 with Stony Brook winning 67-56 from New Jersey. Frankie Policelli led the Seawolves with 17 points, while Tyler Stephenson-Moore and Kaine Roberts added 15 points apiece.

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Hawks are flying

We can joke about how bad Monmouth was when they first joined the CAA and opened up at 0-8 in the league. Now, they are 3-8 after beating North Carolina A&T by 15 on the road, Delaware by eight at home and Drexel by two at home on Saturday. In the Drexel win, Tahron Allen led the Hawks with 19 points, while Myles Foster added 15 points and seven rebounds. The Hawks shot 45% from the field and took just nine 3-pointers, making. But they took care of the ball, committing just five turnovers. They forced 10 from the Dragons, though Drexel shot 47% from the field and shot 9-of-25 (36%) from long range. They were also outrebounded by eight, but they found a  way to win at home.

Monmouth (353 KenPom) is not going to rank well in most categories. In the CAA, they rank 13th and last in free throw percentage (63.8%), field goal defense (47%), three-point percentage (27.3%), three-point defense (37.5%), 3-point field goals made per game (4.08) and 12th in rebounding margin (-4.58). What they do well is hit the offensive glass where they average 11.17 per game to rank third in the CAA.

Foster, a 6-7, 240-pound forward, leads the Hawks with 12.4 points and 6.5 rebounds on 44.7% shooting, but is converting just 56.2% of his free throws.

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Outclassed in Hempstead

Nobody really wants to play first-place Hofstra right now and Stony Brook had to take the 45-minute drive to Hempstead to face the Pride without their star player Aaron Estrada, who was out with food poisoning. The Pride didn't need Edstrada as Tyler Thomas scored 29 points and grabbed 11 rebounds to lead Hofstra to an easy 79-58 win. The good news for Stony Brook was that freshman guard Toby Onyekonwu led the way with 15 points and six assists, but also had four turnovers. The bad news was that guard Tyler Stephenson-Moore (undisclosed injury) missed his third straight game. He was leading the team with 14.7 points per game on 41.9% shooting.

Stony Brook has lost six of their last seven games and two straight, which included a bad loss to Elon at home as a 3-point favorite (69-55). If Stephenson-Moore continues to miss time, Frankie Policelli (6-7, 215) will need to score more than his average of 14 points per game. He does lead the team with 9.5 rebounds.

Overall, the Seawolves are leading the CAA in free throw shooting (74.5%) and they rank fifth in field goal defense. They are struggling from the field, as they making just 41.5% of their shots to rank 11th in the CAA.  They also rank 12th in turnover margin (-2.79) and 10th in three-point defense (35.9%).

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


The first game in this series took place on Jan. 5 and Monmouth shot 35% from the field and 12-of-22 from the line. Sure, they aren't the greatest offensive team in the league, but they are on a three-game winning streak and beat the likes of Delaware and Drexel. They are extremely confident at this point, while Stony Brook is struggling with Stephenson-Moore and without him. Monmouth realizes that they have to rebound and limit the turnovers to win games. That formula has worked as of late.

Prediction: Monmouth +3.5

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Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


Monmouth wants to push the ball, but they are going up against one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation on the road. Stony Brook ranks 344th in Adjusted Tempo according to KenPom. Stony Brook has averaged just 56.5 points over their last two games. At home, they've averaged just 58.8 points per game over their last five contests, so scoring has been difficult lately. Monmouth is averaging just 59.4 points per game and shooting 40.7% from the field on the road.

Prediction: Under

Written By Ben Hayes , "Ben the Pen"

Ben has been a sports writer for over 35 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for nearly 30 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13! Ben has had great success in handicapping college football, the NFL, college basketball, the NBA and MLB for 27+ years. His Twitter handle is @BenHayesWAW