Long Beach State at Cal Poly
When and Where: Saturday, Feb. 9, Mott Gym, San Luis Obispo, Calif., 10 p.m. EST.
Cal Poly looks to take advantage of a slumping Long Beach State team and send its Big West rival to a seventh consecutive defeat Saturday night.
Slumping 49ers seek rare road win
Dan Monson’s usual rugged non-conference schedule designed to toughen Long Beach State (8-16, 2-6 Big West) has failed to take as the 49ers are enduring their longest losing streak since a nine-game skid in 2016-17 that included four losses to teams ranked 16th or better in the AP Top 25.
Thursday night’s 77-70 home loss to Hawaii was another case of Long Beach State failing to get over the hump. Temidayo Yussuf scored 18 points for the 49ers in his best game since missing six for an injury. Yussuf was pressed into a starting role because Mason Riggins was sidelined with flu-like symptoms.
The status of Riggins, who is averaging 5.9 points and 5.3 rebounds while shooting a team-high 59.8 percent, is unknown for this contest.
Four of Long Beach State’s losses during this skid have come at home, but the 49ers have not been competitive in the two road defeats — losing by a combined 32 points while committing 29 turnovers compared to 23 assists.
Deishaun Booker is averaging a team-high 17.3 points but needs to hunt his shot more after taking just seven against Hawaii and finishing with 11 points in 36 minutes.
Mustangs bidding for first Big West home win
Cal Poly (5-16, 1-7) has lost back-to-back games since its lone conference victory and is coming off a 63-53 home loss to UC-Davis on Thursday night.
— Cal Poly Basketball (@calpolymbb) February 8, 2019
Donovan Fields was the only player in double figures, scoring 14 of his 17 points in the second half, but he needed 22 shots to get there as the Mustangs shot 40 percent and allowed the Aggies to connect on 52.2 percent of theirs.
Fields is averaging a team-best 15.6 points, but the junior has shot 40 percent or less in his last four games while averaging 11.0 points on 34.5 percent shooting. He averaged 15.0 points in his first three games against Long Beach State but was held to two in the most recent matchup, going 1 for 6 in a 73-54 defeat to the 49ers.
Cal Poly is 1-5 at home against Division I opponents, beating only Bethune-Cookman. The Mustangs have averaged just 55.7 points in losing their last three home games while being outscored by 16.6 points in those defeats.
Cal Poly is:
- 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit home loss.
- 4-22 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. teams with a sub-.400 road record.
- 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog between 0.5-6.5 points.
- The over is 11-3-1 in its last 15 games as an underdog between 0.5-6.5 points.
- The over is 6-0-1 in its last seven home games vs. Long Beach State.
- The over is 12-4 in its last 16 home games vs. teams with a sub-.500 road record.
Long Beach State is:
- 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. Cal Poly.
- 17-6 ATS in its last 23 road games vs. teams with a sub-.500 home record.
- The over is 4-1 in its last five games as a road favorite between 0.5-6.5 points.
- The over is 6-2 in its last eight games vs. Big West opponents.
- The over is 5-2-1 in its last eight games vs. sub-.500 teams.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The 49ers are due for a win, and there is no better opportunity than beating the one team below them in the Big West standings. Cal Poly has only three victories over Division I teams this season and two of them came against low-conference foes that traveled across the country. The third — UC Riverside — is tied with Long Beach State at 2-6 in the conference.
The 49ers may have found something with Yussuf last game, but this is more about Long Beach State being the better team in this matchup and delivering.
Prediction: Pick: Long Beach State -3.5
Full-Game Total Pick
The over has been the trend with these teams, especially at Cal Poly as the last three games there have reached 158 and higher. The teams combined for 143 or more points in the five previous meetings before settling at 137 in the last one, but the 49ers have played to 147 or higher in all but one Big West game. The over is a strong pick here.
Prediction: Pick: OVER 141.5 points
Half-Time Side Pick
There is little reason to have any confidence in the Mustangs given who they have beaten at home and their overall struggles in Big West play. Long Beach State is not a world beater by any stretch of the imagination and has not led after 20 minutes in a true road game, but it has rarely been outplayed in the first half on the road.
Given Cal Poly’s lack of quality the 49ers should be ahead after halftime.
Prediction: Pick: Long Beach State -2.5
Half-Time Total Bet
Though the over is the pick for the full game, the hedge is they come up just short in the first 20 minutes. Cal Poly has not topped 32 in any of its three Big West home games, while Long Beach State has ranged between 28 and 36 first-half points in its last eight road contests.
Prediction: Pick: UNDER 66.5 points