It’s a contest of teams from the Mountain West on the hardwood as the fifth-seeded Boise State Broncos battle the fourth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs Thursday afternoon in the opening round of the Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas and we have you covered with our Boise State vs. San Diego State prediction. Boise State fell 83-73 at home against Colorado State in their previous contest Friday night, losing outright as a six-point favorite. San Diego State downed Nevada 80-61 in their previous Saturday, covering the line as a seven-point favorite in their previous game. In the all-time series between the teams, the Aztecs own a 20-13 advantage and have won the last two meetings, including a 64-47 home win in the most recent matchup on February 15. Read more about this Boise State vs. San Diego State prediction! Get our top NCAAB Betting Picks and increase your bankroll!
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Boise State Looking to Avoid Third Loss This Season to Aztecs
Boise State had won five straight and nine of their previous 10 games before losing their regular-season finale to Colorado State at home Friday. The Broncos finished the regular season 22-9 overall and finished 14-6 in the Mountain West. Joe Lunardi has them as the first team out in terms of March Madness. Against Colorado State, Boise State led by four in the first half and trailed by as many as seven before rallying to tie the game at 34 at halftime. The Broncos led by nine with 11:01 remaining in the game before giving up a 20-4 run to trail 71-64 with 5:03 to go. They never got closer than four the rest of the way en route to the loss. Boise State shot 41.8% from the field, including seven of 29 from three-point range, and allowed Colorado State to shoot 57.4% in the contest. Andrew Meadow led the Broncos with 22 points and six boards in the loss.
The Broncos are 118th in the nation in scoring offense as they average 76 points per game on the year. Boise State is 126th in rebounding with 36.3 boards a night and stands 109th by handing out 14.6 assists per contest. The Broncos are 37th in the country in scoring defense as they allow an average of 66.3 points per game this season. Javan Buchanan is one of the more reliable scoring options on the team as he puts up 9.7 points and 3.8 rebounds per contest this season. Tyson Degenheart (17.8 points, 6.1 boards) and Andrew Meadow (12.6 points, 4.4 rebounds) are capable scoring options for the Broncos. O’Mar Stanley (8.4 points, 5.8 rebounds), Alvaro Cardenas (12 points, 6.9 assists), Dylan Anderson, Emmanuel Ugbo, Julian Bowie, RJ Keene II and Chris Lockett Jr. are important contributors in the Boise State rotation for coach Leon Rice. Boise State shoots 46.5% from the field as a team on the season, putting them 86th in the nation. The Broncos connect on 7.2 three-pointers a night while shooting 31.5% as a team from beyond the arc. Boise State is an excellent team at the free throw line as they knock down 77.7% of their attempts at the line this season, which is 25th in the nation.
Aztecs Shooting for Season Sweep
San Diego State won six of their last eight games as they dropped Nevada in their regular season finale Saturday. The Aztecs closed the regular season with a 21-8 record overall and a 14-6 mark in Mountain West play: they earned the higher seed based on the sweep of their series with Boise State. They currently are projected as a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament by Joe Lunardi. Against Nevada, San Diego State led 8-7 just over five minutes into the game before going on a 24-3 run to take a 32-10 advantage with 6:03 to play in the first half. The Aztecs cruised from there, leading 43-21 at the half and by as many as 28 in the second half while not letting Nevada closer than 14. San Diego State shot 54.5% from the field, including 10 of 26 from three-point range, and forced 12 turnovers in the contest. Nick Boyd led the Aztecs with 18 points and four assists in the win.
The Aztecs enter this contest putting up an average of 71.5 points per game on the season, putting them 248th in the nation in scoring offense. San Diego State pulls down an average of 35.7 rebounds per game and passes off 13.2 assists a night on the year. The Aztecs are 14th in scoring defense as they allow 63.7 points a night. BJ Davis is third on the team in scoring with 9.1 points and three rebounds per game this season. Miles Byrd (12.8 points, 4.5 rebounds) and Nick Boyd (13.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, four assists) are solid secondary scoring options. Wayne McKinney III, Magoon Gwath, Pharoah Compton, Jared Coleman-Jones, Taj DeGourville and Miles Heide are being looked at as key role players for Brian Dutcher and the Aztecs. San Diego State shoots 44.6% from the field as a team this season. The Aztecs connect on 7.7 triples a night while shooting 33.1% from beyond the arc. San Diego State has been well below average at the charity stripe, converting 66.8% of their chances this season, putting them 332nd in the nation.
Best Bets for Boise State vs. San Diego State
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Boise State was hot down the stretch but faltering in the last 11 minutes against Colorado State cost them a seed line in this tournament and could impact their chances at a bid for March Madness. The Broncos are a solid offensive team but they struggled in their two meetings with the Aztecs this season. In those games, Boise State shot a combined 36.1% from the floor, including 10 of 48 from three-point range, while averaging 57.5 points per game. San Diego State is a stingy defense that can stifle teams and create transition opportunities via turnovers: they forced 27 in the two games this season. Look for the Aztecs’ defense to do the job and carry them to the semifinals with a win here.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
Boise State is 266th in the tempo with an average 65.9 possessions per game. The Broncos are 64th in defensive efficiency, 119th in effective field goal percentage defense (49.7%) and are third by allowing offensive rebounds on just 22.5% of their opponents’ misses. San Diego State is 12th in defensive efficiency, seventh in effective field goal percentage defense (45.4%), 2nd in field goal percentage defense (37.9%), 7th in two-point shooting (44.4%) and 24th in three-point defense (30.4%) this season. The Aztecs are 241st in tempo with 66.3 possessions per game according to KenPom. San Diego State has held 15 of their last 20 opponents to 68 points or less and Boise State tallied only 68 and 47 points, respectively, in their two meetings. We’ve seen the under hit in eight of the last 10 meetings and this one follows suit. Take the under here.
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