It’s a contest of teams from the Mountain West on the hardwood as the sixth-seeded UNLV Rebels battle the third-seeded Utah State Aggies Thursday night in the opening round of the Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas and we have you covered with our UNLV vs. Utah State prediction. UNLV rallied to beat 11th-seeded Air Force 68-59 in their first-round matchup Wednesday night, failing to cover the line as a 12.5-point favorite in their previous game. Utah State closed its regular season slate with an 87-47 drubbing of Air Force at home Saturday, covering the line as a 23.5-point favorite, in their previous contest. In the all-time series, the Rebels hold a 35-16 advantage but the Aggies picked up a 76-71 home win in the most recent matchup on January 29. Read more about this UNLV vs. Utah State prediction! Get our top NCAAB Betting Picks and increase your bankroll!
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UNLV Looking to Win Rubber Game of Season Series
UNLV sputtered for a while but finally managed to put away 11th-seeded Air Force in their first-round matchup Wednesday night. The Rebels ran their record to 18-14 overall and they were 11-9 in the Mountain West during the season. Against Air Force, UNLV trailed 7-0 out of the gate, rallied to lead by two and then trailed by seven again before trimming the margin to four at the half. The Rebels trailed by eight with 15:52 to play and by six with 11:01 to go before a 19-0 run over the next seven minutes to lead 60-47 with four minutes remaining. They didn’t let the Falcons closer than seven the rest of the way to earn the win. UNLV shot 45.1% from the field, including six of 21 from three-point range, and won the rebounding battle 40-32 in the game. Jalen Hill led the Rebels with 18 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in the victory.
On the season, UNLV is putting up an average of 69.6 points per contest, putting them 294th in the nation in scoring offense. The Rebels are collecting 33.8 rebounds a night while dishing out an average of 12.2 assists per contest. UNLV is above average on the defensive end of the floor as they surrender 68.1 points a game, putting them 71st in scoring defense. Dedan Thomas Jr. is one of four players averaging in double figures as he puts up 15.6 points and 4.7 assists per game this season. Jaden Henley (12.2 points, 4.1 rebounds), Jailen Bedford (10.2 points, 4.3 rebounds) and Jeremiah Cherry (10.1 points, 5.3 boards) are good secondary scoring options. Julian Rishwain, Jalen Hill, Rob Whaley Jr., Brooklyn Hicks, Papa N’Diaye and Jacob Bannarbie are key contributors for coach Kevin Kruger. The Rebels are shooting 44.6% from the floor as a team this year. UNLV is connecting on 6.5 three-pointers per contest while shooting 33.9% from beyond the arc, which is 183rd in the nation. The Rebels are average at the charity stripe as they are shooting 71.3% as a team this season.
Whaley Jr. (back) and Jace Whiting (undisclosed) last played on November 9 and are out indefinitely. Thomas (undisclosed) last took the floor on February 15 and is out indefinitely.
Aggies Seeking to Move On to Semifinals
Utah State shrugged off two straight losses as they clobbered Air Force in their regular season finale to head into the postseason on a positive note. The Aggies finished the regular season 25-6 overall and stood third in the Mountain West with a 15-5 record in conference play. They are projected as a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament according to Joe Lunardi. Against Air Force, Utah State put this game away early, bolting to a 24-5 lead with 12:25 to play in the first half and rolled from there. The Aggies were up 50-23 at the half and led by as many as 47 en route to the victory. Utah State shot 55.4% from the field, including 15 of 32 from three-point range, and forced 19 turnovers in the victory. Mason Falslev led the Aggies with 18 points, seven rebounds and four assists in the win.
On the year, Utah State averages 81.5 points per contest on the season, putting them 26th in the nation in scoring offense. The Aggies are pulling down an average of 34.3 rebounds per contest (238th) while passing off 17.7 assists per game, putting them sixth in Division I. Utah State has played solid defense this season as they are 115th in scoring defense by allowing an average of 69.9 points a night this season. Ian Martinez is leading the team as he puts up 16.9 points plus 3.4 rebounds a night. Dexter Akanno (8.8 points, 3.4 rebounds) and Mason Falslev (14.7 points, 6.1 rebounds) are solid secondary scoring options. Aubin Gateretse, Karson Templin (7.3 points, 4.8 rebounds), Drake Allen, Isaac Johnson, Tucker Anderson, Deyton Albury, Isaac Davis and Jordy Barnes are other pieces in Jerrod Calhoun’s rotation. The Aggies are shooting 49.5% from the field as a team on the year, putting them 7th in Division I. Utah State is draining 9.1 three-pointers a game this season while shooting 37.3% from three-point range on the year. The Aggies are below average at the charity stripe, sinking 70.6% of their attempts this season.
Best Bets for UNLV vs. Utah State
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
UNLV beat Utah State at home before falling on the road in the second meeting between the teams this season. The problem for the Rebels, other than missing Thomas Jr., is the fact that they played so poorly against Air Force in the opening round. Outside of that seven-minute span in the second half when they outscored the Falcons 19-0 to take control of the game, the Rebels looked rather dull and listless. That kind of performance is going to be a test against a Utah State squad that is better than them on both ends of the floor. The Aggies have more than enough firepower to handle business here. Look for Utah State to take control here and punch their ticket to the semifinals.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
UNLV has seen the under post an 18-13-1 mark in their 32 games this season. The Rebels are a team that will grind the ball on every possession, ranking 261st in the nation by averaging 66 possessions a night this season. UNLV averages 17.8 seconds per possession (206th) and their opponents average 18.3 seconds (324th) so far this year. Utah State is 16th in offensive efficiency, 11th in effective field goal percentage (56.6%), 88th in turnover percentage (15.8%), 60th in offensive rebounding percentage (33.9%) and 36th in FT rate (.375 FT attempts per FG attempt) this season. The Aggies are 150th in adjusted tempo with 67.8 possessions per game. Three of the last four meetings have gone over the total. Look for this game to wind up over the mark as Utah State des plenty of damage on the offensive end of the floor.
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