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San Diego State vs. Nevada Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 3-15-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#851 San Diego State
Aztecs 142.5
#852 Nevada
Wolf Pack -10.5

Friday, March 15, 2019 at 9:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

San Diego State Aztecs

20 - 12

16-14
ATS
9-21
O/U
72
PPG
67
OPPG

Nevada Wolf Pack

29 - 3

17-13
ATS
13-18
O/U
81
PPG
66
OPPG

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Featured Video from Scott Steehn

It’s a quarterfinal matchup of the Mountain West Tournament coming to you live from Sin City. The fourth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs battle the top-seeded #14 Nevada Wolf Pack Friday night with the winner advancing to the Mountain West title game. San Diego State knocked off fifth-seeded UNLV 63-55 in their quarterfinal matchup Thursday evening. Nevada defeated eighth-seeded Boise State 77-69 in their quarterfinal tilt Thursday afternoon. The Aztecs own a 13-6 edge in the all-time series but the teams split two meetings this season: the Wolf Pack rolled to an 81-53 home win in the last matchup on March 9.

San Diego State Aztecs Seek to Sting Wolf Pack

San Diego State took care of UNLV as they continued their recent mastery against the Rebels to advance to the semifinals. The Aztecs improved to 20-12 on the season with the victory. San Diego State held a two-point edge at the half and found themselves in a tight game most of the second half. With the game tied at 47 with 4:08 to go, the Aztecs went on an 8-2 run to take a six-point edge with 1:58 to play. Their lead didn’t drop below four the rest of the way. San Diego State shot just 29.8 percent from the field, including five of 23 from three-point range, but knocked down 24 of 32 free throws in the game. Jalen McDaniels led the Aztecs with 25 points and 14 rebounds in the win.

The Aztecs enter this contest putting up an average of 72.3 points per game on the season. San Diego State puts up 36.3 rebounds per game and passes off 14.6 assists a night on the year. The Aztecs are 90th in scoring defense as they allow 67.8 points a night. Jalen McDaniels is leading the team with 16.3 points plus 8.3 boards per contest. Devin Watson puts up 15.8 points plus 4.2 assists a night, Matt Mitchell chips in 10.3 points a game and Jeremy Hemsley is good for 9.3 points per contest. Jordan Schakel, Nolan Narain, Nathan Mensah and Adam Seiko have to be able to contribute when they are on the floor for the Aztecs to have success. San Diego State shoots 43.9 percent from the field as a team this season. The Aztecs connect on 7.8 triples a night while shooting 36.5 percent from beyond the arc. San Diego State has been solid at the charity stripe, converting 71.5 percent of their chances this season.

Nevada Wolf Pack Shoot to Repeat Last Matchup vs. Aztecs

Nevada managed to outlast Boise State in their quarterfinal matchup to move on to the semifinals. The Wolf Pack improved to 29-3 on the year and look to repeat their showing in the regular season finale as they trounced the Aztecs by 28. Nevada trailed by five at the half and held a narrow one-point edge with 2:26 to play before closing the game on an 11-4 run to get the victory. The Wolf Pack shot 48.1 percent from the field, including nine of 23 from three-point range, and knocked down 16 of 21 free throws while winning the rebounding battle 33-25. Jazz Johnson led Nevada with 20 points in the win.

The Wolf Pack is putting up a hefty 81.4 points per game so far this season. Nevada grabs 37.3 rebounds per game and dishes out 15.3 assists a night on the year. The Wolf Pack is above average on the defensive end of the floor as they are 55th by allowing 66.7 points per game. Caleb Martin, who puts up 19.6 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, is leading the team in scoring. Jordan Caroline puts up 17.3 points and 9.6 rebounds a night, Jazz Johnson chips in 11.3 points and Cody Martin adds 11.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists a night. Tre’Shawn Thurman, Trey Porter, Jordan Brown and Corey Henson all put up at least 2.9 points a night. Nevada shoots 46.8 percent from the field as a team this season. The Wolf Pack knock down 8.9 three pointers a game while shooting 35.4 percent from beyond the arc. Nevada is average at the charity stripe, knocking down 71.2 percent this season.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

We saw two different games when these teams met this season. San Diego State had an easy time of things at home in the first meeting but the Wolf Pack put the boots to them in Reno just six days ago. Nevada is experienced and they are looking to avoid a letdown here. Nevada overcame a gritty Boise State team to advance to the semifinals and that adversity should serve them well going forward. The Wolf Pack is the better team when you get right down to it. Look for Nevada to pick up the victory here to punch their ticket to the title game.

Prediction: Nevada Wolf Pack -11

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

San Diego State had to slog their way to a win over UNLV in a game where nothing seemed to be falling from the field. Had the Aztecs not gotten to the line 32 times and knocked down 24 of them in the contest, it could have been a different story. San Diego State is just 206th in field goal percentage this season despite being 83rd in three-point percentage on the year. Nevada is 24th in scoring offense, 56th in field goal percentage and 122nd in three-point shooting. The Wolf Pack is 39th in field goal percentage defense (40.9 percent) and 55th in scoring defense: can the Aztecs hit enough shots to get the win?

The under is 5-0 in the Aztecs’ last 5 neutral site games, 8-1-1 in their last 10 vs. Mountain West foes, 20-5-1 in their last 26 games following an ATS win and 16-5-1 in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Nevada has seen the under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 15-5-1 in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings: look for this one to end up under the number as the Wolf Pack is slowed a bit, but not much, offensively, while the Aztecs go cold again.

Prediction: Under 141.5

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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