Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#839 Miami - FL vs.
#840 Indiana
Sunday, March 19, 2023 at 8:40pm EDT
Written by Michael Briggs

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The Miami Hurricanes will play the Indiana Hoosiers in the NCAA Tournament round of 32 on Sunday. Tip-off from MVP Arena in Albany is at 8:40 p.m. ET.

Miami (26-7 SU and 19-14 ATS) beat Drake on Friday in its first-round matchup.

Indiana (23-11 SU and 16-17-1 ATS) beat Kent State in its first-round matchup.

The Hoosiers are one-point spread favorites and the game total is 146.5 points.

Miami had its back against the wall and held its ground

The Canes rallied in the second half of Friday’s first-round game to beat the Drake Bulldogs. “The U” trailed 30-25 at the half but didn’t allow itself to fall victim to an upset to a double-digit seed. It played tough defensively, leading to a 16-1 closing stretch that gave Miami a seven-point win. 

The Hurricanes were inefficient, shooting 6-for-18 from three and 30.4 percent overall, but made up for it at the free-throw line (23-for-29). Miami outrebounded Drake 41-35, limiting the Bulldogs to only two offensive rebounds.

“I was like, ‘Man, this can’t be the way how it ends,’” Sophomore guard Nijel Pack (21 points) said. “I talked to my teammates. I felt like they felt the same way. We kind of brought some inner energy from within us.”

Junior guard Isaiah Wong paces Miami in scoring. He averages 16.2 points on 45.3 percent shooting, including 37.8 percent from three. He also converts 83.6 percent of his foul shots. A few other Hurricanes players to watch are senior guard Jordan Miller (15.3 PPG and 6.2 RPG), sophomore forward Norchad Omier (13.6 PPG and 9.7 RPG), and sophomore guard Wooga Poplar (8.3 PPG).

Miami scores 79.6 points per game (24th) and shoots 48.5 percent from the floor (18th), including 37.2 percent from three-point range (42nd). The Canes convert 78.0 percent of their free-throw attempts (12th) and average 32.1 rebounds (154th) with a +3.3 rebounding margin. "The U" is 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 20th in effective field goal percentage (55.0%), and 104th in adjusted pace.

Miami surrenders 71.7 points per contest (233rd), and its opponents shoot 44.8 percent (258th) with a 33.1 shooting percentage from long range (124th). The Canes are 132nd in defensive efficiency and 44th in assist-per-turnover ratio.

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Indiana coasted to victory with a dominant defensive performance

The Hoosiers defeated the Golden Flashes on Friday with a strong showing from start to finish. They only trailed by one point and led by as many as 16. Indiana shot 46.8 percent and held Kent State to 31.9 percent, including 7-for-21 from three-point distance.

Senior forward Trayce Jackson-Davis became the first player since blocks became an official stat to record at least 20 points, ten rebounds, five blocks, and five assists in an NCAA Tournament game.

“The big, Davis, he dominated tonight, so props to him,” Kent State guard Jalen Sullinger said.

Jackson-Davis leads Indiana in scoring. He averages 20.8 points on 57.8 percent shooting, 10.9 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. A few other Hoosiers to watch are freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino (13.5 PPG and 4.1 RPG), senior forward Miller Kopp (7.9 PPG and a 44.3 3PT%), and senior forward Race Thompson (7.9 PPG and 5.0 RPG).

Indiana scores 75.3 points per game (103rd) and shoots 48.9 percent from the field (12th), including 37.6 percent from three-point distance (28th). The Hoosiers convert 71.4 percent of their free throws (197th) and average 33.1 rebounds (103rd) with a +2.2 rebounding margin. IU is 28th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 36th in effective field goal percentage (53.8%), and 142nd in adjusted tempo.

The Hoosiers give up 68.5 points per game on defense (131st), and their opponents shoot 41.2 percent (49th) with a 33.0 shooting percentage from three-point range (123rd). Indiana is 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 42nd in assist-per-turnover ratio.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


The Hoosiers (1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up win) are 1.5-point spread favorites, but I believe Miami (4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games) is the side to bet on in this second-round matchup.

Indiana won its first-round game with an excellent defensive performance, but the way it rebounded the ball is concerning. The Hoosiers were outrebounded 42-39, allowing the Golden Flashes to secure 19 offensive rebounds, lending hope to their opponents. That could rear its ugly head against the Hurricanes, who have a monster in the paint in Omier and plenty of spot-up shooters who can take advantage of kick-out passes from offensive rebounds (37.2 3PT%).

Miami didn't play its best on Friday, but it didn't need to. The Hurricanes boast several scoring options and can make up for poor shooting nights with their ability to get to the foul line and convert (12th-highest FT% in the NCAA). They have the tough-minded mentality you like to see in tournament games, a character trait the Hoosiers fail to match consistently.

I believe the Canes will hit more field goals than they did versus the Bulldogs and will outmuscle the Hoosiers in the post, earning extra possessions and free throws that will put Indiana in a tough spot.

Prediction: Hurricanes ML

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Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


This has the makings of a classic, back-and-forth game between two teams itching to make their mark on this season's NCAA Tournament. While I respect the Hoosiers' defense, I think Miami will shoot the ball better than it did on Friday β€” Miami is 20th nationally in eFG% this season β€” and will make life difficult for Indiana in the paint. This should lead to offensive rebounds that will generate extra offensive possessions and free throws for the Hurricanes.

On the other end of the court, the Hoosiers' offense (28th in offensive efficiency) should fare well against the Canes' defense (132nd in defensive efficiency). Jackson-Davis has been a menace, scoring 20-plus in nine of the last eleven games. He has three 20-plus rebound games since the start of the new year and 17 double-doubles this season. Omier will do his best to contain him, but he can only do so much. I'm also predicting a better shooting performance from Hood-Schifino, who was held to 4-of-11 shooting (eight points) in 32 minutes versus Kent State.

The over will be my play on the total at 145.5 points.

Prediction: Over 145.5

Written By Michael Briggs , "Michael Briggs"

Mike Briggs is a passionate sports fan and writer, earning his B.A. in Journalism. In 2020, he moved across the country from New Jersey to San Diego to satisfy his lifelong obsession of living near an MLB stadium. As a proud MSU basketball supporter, Mike believes he's learned a lot watching coach Tom Izzo lead the Spartans to Big Ten titles and Final Fours regularly. He's also well-read on the NBA, having a subscription to SLAM magazine, the famed "basketball bible," since he was a teenager. Mike spends his free time strategizing futures bets and researching opportunities to make a few bucks on tonight's game. You can follow Mike on Twitter @BriggsWrites for sports betting, DFS, and stock trading tips.