Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#159 Cincinnati vs.
#160 Tulsa
Saturday, October 1, 2022 at 7:00pm EDT
Written by The Admiral

Cincinnati Bearcats (3-1) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-2)

Cincinnati and Tulsa open their American Athletic Conference play in Week 5 of the 2022 college football season, as the Golden Hurricane host the Bearcats at Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma, on Saturday, October 1. 

The Bearcats aim for their fourth consecutive victory over the Golden Hurricane. Last year, Cincinnati outlasted Tulsa 28-20 as a huge 22.5-point home fave. The Bearcats are 9.5-point road favorites this time around, while the totals sit at 58.5 points.

Cincinnati beat Indiana for its third straight W

The Cincinnati Bearcats improved to 3-1 straight up and 2-2 ATS on the season following a 45-24 victory to the Indiana Hoosiers in Week 4. After a 31-24 defeat at Arkansas in their season opener and a couple of comfortable wins over Kennesaw State 63-10 and Miami (OH) 38-17, the Bearcats steamrolled the Hoosiers on the back of senior QB Ben Bryant, who went 24-of-40 for 354 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. 

Junior wideout Tyler Scott had a great time in Week 4, too, recording ten catches for 185 yards and three touchdowns. He’s already accounted for 423 yards and five scores on 25 catches in 2022. The Bearcats rushed 30 times for a paltry 40 yards against Indiana, but their passing offense was unstoppable and Cincinnati’s defense forced three turnovers on the afternoon. 

“As we’ve said since we’ve been here, there’s no difference between us and the guys in the Big Ten,” Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell said. “We have expectations and, in some ways, we even expect to play a little better. This was an opportunity for us to grow because we hadn’t been in that position. You have to be able to come out and finish things off by running the football and play clean defensively.” 

The Bearcats are scoring 42.5 points per game (16th in the nation) on 328.3 passing yards (14th) and 130.5 rushing yards (98th). They are yielding 20.5 points in a return (tied-42nd) on 182.5 passing yards (28th) and 125.3 rushing yards (50th). Senior linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. had a big game against Indiana, tallying 2.5 sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss.

Tulsa nearly upset the No. 16 Ole Miss in Week 4

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are coming off a 35-27 defeat at the No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels in Week 4. They battled bravely as huge 21-point road underdogs and kept the Rebels scoreless in the second half but couldn’t overcome a 17-point halftime deficit, failing to cross midfield on their final three possessions. Senior QB Davis Brin went 7-of-13 for 112 yards and a TD before exiting in the second quarter due to an injury, while freshman Braylon Braxton was 9-of-21 for 83 yards, a TD, and an interception in relief. 

"We had adversity and fought through it," Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery said. "We gave ourselves a chance to win it late." 

The Golden Hurricane posted 262 rushing yards and 6.1 per carry against Ole Miss, but they also failed to cope with the Rebels’ ground game, surrendering a thumping 308 yards on 51 totes. Tulsa now ranks 98th in points allowed (31.8) and 77th in total yards allowed per game (385.3). 

Davis Brin is questionable to play Saturday against Cincinnati. He’s already tossed for 1,318 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just one interception in 2022, so Brin’s eventual absence would be a huge blow for Tulsa’s offense. The Golden Hurricane are notching 39.0 points per contest (28th in the nation) on 358.5 passing yards (4th) and 148.5 rushing yards (81st). 

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Tulsa’s dynamic offense won’t be the same if Davis Brin sits out, but the Golden Hurricane have enough defensive weapons to slow down the Bearcats and keep it close in front of the home fans. Tulsa is allowing 189.0 passing yards per game (31st in the country) along with the 12th-fewest passing attempts per contest (25.5). 

The Bearcats’ rushing offense is far away from an elite level. Their defense should help them prevail over the Golden Hurricane, but covering a 9.5-point spread at Chapman Stadium will be a tall order. Cincinnati is 4-1 straight up and 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings with Tulsa.

Prediction: Take the Tulsa Golden Hurricane +9.5 (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

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Both Cincinnati and Tulsa are capable of playing tough defense. Two of their last three meetings have gone under the total and none has produced more than 51 points in total. Their passing offenses will be held in check, so I’m going with the under on the totals. If Braylon Braxton gets the starting call under center, the hosts will look to run the football a lot which is another reason to take the under.  

The under is 8-2 in Tulsa’s last ten showings at home as an underdog. On the other side, the under is 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last five outings on the road as a favorite. During that stretch, the Bearcats’ rivals have averaged just 17.2 points per game.

Prediction: Go under 58.5 points (-110)
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

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