The LSU Tigers (3-1, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U) take on the Auburn Tigers (3-1, 0-4 ATS, 2-2 O/U) in an SEC bout on Saturday night. LSU collected a convincing home win against New Mexico in their latest game. Auburn recorded an overtime home win against Missouri in their SEC opener last week. Auburn posted a 24-19 road win against LSU in the meeting last season.
LSU Collects Third Straight Victory
The LSU Tigers are targeting a fourth consecutive win. They were dealt a narrow 20-19 defeat against Florida State in the season opener and have dominated since. The defense shined in a 30-16 home win against Mississippi State, and they were tabbed 31-point favorites in a 38-0 home win against New Mexico last week. LSU has covered the points in three straight games.
Jayden Daniels is thriving in his first year as the LSU #1 QB. The junior played for Arizona State last season and has quickly found a groove, connecting on 73% of his passes for a total of 835 passing yards accompanied by a 6:0 TD to INT ratio. Daniels is mobile, accumulating 262 rushing yards.
LSU has been dangerous on the ground thanks to Daniels and Armoni Goodwin. The sophomore RB logged 76 yards in the win against Mississippi State and has registered 199 rushing yards on an average of 5.9 yards per carry. Malik Nabers is dangerous. The sophomore WR made six catches, resulting in 65 receiving yards last week, and has 265 receiving yards on the year. The LSU offense has surpassed 30 points in three games in a row.
The Tigers' defense has been effective in all four games. They held the Mississippi State offense to only 289 total yards and only allowed 88 yards last week. The pass defense ranks 8th while the rush defense has also been effective and stands 41st. LSU is scoring an average of 39.3 points, landing them 27th overall. The defense is limiting foes to 14.3 points, tabbing them 16th in the FBS.
Auburn Earns OT Win in SEC Opener
The Auburn Tigers are targeting their fourth victory of the season. They defeated non-FBS foe Mercer followed by a win against San Jose State in the opening two games of the season. The Tigers were two-point dogs in an ugly 41-12 home loss to Penn State two weeks ago. Auburn was labeled 7.5 point favorites in a narrow 17-14 home win against Missouri to begin SEC play last week. The Tigers have yet to cover the spread.
Auburn’s #1 QB T.J. Finley did not play last week due to a shoulder injury. He did practice this week and is questionable. The junior has struggled, logging 431 passing yards and a 1:4 TD to INT ratio. Robby Ashford hasn’t been any better. He only had 127 passing yards last week and has amassed 372 passing yards and a 1:2 TD to INT ratio.
The Tigers will run frequently. They have a talented RB in Tank Bigsby who had 1099 yards last year. The junior QB only averaged 2.3 yards per rush last week but has collected 281 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per carry on the season. Ja’Varrius Johnson had zero catches last week and leads all receivers with 231 yards. The Auburn offense has now scored 24 or fewer points in three consecutive games.
The Tigers’ defense has been their top strength. They struggled against a strong Penn State offense but held Missouri to only 179 passing yards and stand 65th against the pass and 55th against the run. Auburn is averaging 23.8 points on the season, landing them 100th. The defense has conceded an average of 21.8 points, good for 54th in the FBS.
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
The LSU Tigers are looking good. Their only defeat was a one-point loss to Florida State. They earned a big 31-16 win against Mississippi State two weeks ago. The Auburn Tigers are not a contender this season. They barely defeated San Jose State in week two and needed overtime to narrowly beat Missouri last week.
Furthermore, the LSU offense is producing and the defense has been outstanding. Auburn will struggle to generate points against this unit. LSU is limiting foes to 145 passing yards per game which is key when considering the lack of production in the air from Auburn. QB Calzada is out for the season, and T.J. Finely is not expected to play due to a shoulder injury. Auburn will probably rely on the running game but it will be a daunting task against an LSU defense holding foes to only 112.3 rushing yards per game.
Full-Game Total Pick
I expect points to be at a premium in this conference battle. The LSU offense is strong however Auburn’s defense is solid. They have allowed 16 or fewer points in three out of their four games. LSU doesn't have a pass-heavy offense, they opted for the run in 50% of their plays.
In addition, Auburn’s offensive struggles will resume in this game without QB T.J. Finley. They only managed 12 points against Penn State followed by 17 points last week, three of which occurred in OT. They are running a ton, opting for the run in 56% of their total plays. The under is also 9-4 in Auburn's last 13 games against a team with a winning record.