Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#197 Miami - OH vs.
#198 Buffalo
Saturday, October 1, 2022 at 3:30pm EDT
Written by The Admiral

Miami (OH) RedHawks (2-2) vs. Buffalo Bulls (1-3)

The Miami (OH) RedHawks start their Mid-American Conference play on the first day of October when they visit the Buffalo Bulls at UB Stadium in Buffalo, New York, in Week 5 of the 2022 college football season. 

The RedHawks and Bulls split their last four encounters, as each school emerged victorious at home. Last year, Miami trounced Buffalo 45-18 as a 7-point fave, while the Bulls routed the RedHawks 42-10 as 7.5-point favorites in 2020. The bookies expect to see a tight battle in 2022, setting the Bulls as slight 1.5-point home favorites with a total of 50.5 points. 

The RedHawks pulled off an upset in Week 4

The Miami (OH) RedHawks improved to 2-2 straight up and ATS on the season following a 17-14 road victory over the Northwestern Wildcats. They upset the odds as 7.5-point underdogs, overcoming a 14-7 deficit in the fourth quarter. The RedHawks needed just three plays to gain 75 yards and tie the game with 7:23 left on the clock, while Graham Nicholson made a 36-yard field goal with 21 seconds to go to lift Miami over Northwestern. 

The Wildcats outgained the RedHawks 364-278 in total yards but committed a couple of turnovers. Miami took good care of the ball, and sophomore RB Keyon Mozee led the charge with 21 totes for 171 yards. Freshman QB Aveon Smith ran 11 times for seven yards and a touchdown while completing just seven of his 19 passing attempts for 62 yards and a TD. 

"It might have been a little more high-scoring if Big Ben was there today," Miami's Chuck Martin joked after getting his first coaching win over a Big Ten foe. "It's hard to beat Big Ten schools. To beat a Big Ten team that Coach (Pat) Fitzgerald coaches is pretty cool for me. "No one could move the ball the whole night. They throw the ball for 300 yards a game and we basically hold them to seven points until midway through the fourth quarter. Both defenses played wonderfully." 

The RedHawks have suffered a couple of heavy defeats so far this season. They lost at No. 20 Kentucky 37-13 in Week 1 and to Cincinnati 38-17 in Week 3. Miami is yielding 270.0 passing yards (105th in the nation) and just 83.5 rushing yards per game (tied-15th). 

The Bulls just snapped their seven-game skid

The Buffalo Bulls beat the Eastern Michigan Eagles 50-31 in Week 4 to stop their seven-game losing streak dating back to the previous season. Playing as 6.5-point road underdogs, the Bulls dropped 20 unanswered points on the Eagles while keeping them off the scoreboard through the final 25 minutes of the game. 

Buffalo outgained EMU 498-327 in total yardage. The Bulls had 55 carries for 201 yards, and freshman RB Mike Washington led the way with 21 totes for 71 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Sophomore signal-caller Cole Snyder had seven carries for 35 yards and two scores, while senior RB Ron Cook Jr. added 92 yards on 19 rushing attempts. Snyder completed 20 of his 29 passing attempts for 297 yards and a pair of touchdowns. 

It was the first win of the season for the Bulls, who started the conference play on a high note. They sandwiched a couple of road losses at Maryland 31-10 and Coastal Carolina 38-26 with a disappointing 37-31 home defeat to the Holy Cross Crusaders, who shocked UB Stadium with the last-second Hail Mary touchdown. 

“Penalties was a big piece of the formula of keeping drives going for them,” Buffalo second-year head coach Maurice Linguist said of Holy Cross. “Making ten penalties is not our brand of football.” 

Buffalo ranks 83rd in the country in total offense with 391.8 yards per game. The Bulls are scoring 29.3 points per contest (tied-79th) while surrendering 34.3 in a return (tied-109th). They are 93rd in passing yards allowed (252.0) and 108th in rushing yards allowed per game (181.5). 

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Full-Game Side Bet

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I’m expecting the RedHawks’ rushing to make the difference in what should be a hard-fought battle for all 60 minutes. Miami leans on its ground game, averaging 38.5 carries and 24.5 passing attempts per game, while the Bulls are yielding 5.6 yards per carry, enough for the ninth-most in the country. The RedHawks are arguably a better defensive team in this matchup, though the Bulls will find a way to move the ball through the air. 

The Bulls possess more offensive weapons than Miami, but their defense is a big issue. Buffalo has allowed 30-plus points in seven of its last eight games, going 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in the process.

Prediction: Take the Miami (OH) RedHawks +1.5 (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

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The Bulls love to play at a fast pace, while the RedHawks will try everything they can to slow things down in this matchup, run the football, and eat the clock. Miami’s passing D will be properly tested, and I don’t expect to see a low-scoring affair. Buffalo can hurt the RedHawks through the air, but the Bulls will struggle to contain Miami on the ground. 

The over is 6-2 in Buffalo’s last eight games overall, and it is 7-2 in the previous nine meetings between the Bulls and RedHawks. The under is 4-1 in the RedHawks’ last six outings, but four of their previous six dates with the Mid-American Conference have gone over the total. 

Prediction: Go over 50.5 points (-110)

Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.