Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#183 Oklahoma vs.
#184 TCU
Saturday, October 1, 2022 at 12:00pm EDT
Written by Mark Ruelle

The Oklahoma Sooners, fresh off of their first loss of the season this week, travel to the great state of Texas to take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Big XII Conference action. The Sooners lost a heartbreaker to K-State on Saturday in their conference debut on Saturday to fall to 3-1 and down to 18th in the Top-25 rankings. The Horned Frogs come in at a perfect 3-0 but are still out of the Top 25. The game will be TCU's first conference game this season. The opening kick is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

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Sooners Undefeated Season goes Boom

The Oklahoma Sooners' season-opening winning streak of three games, their streak of 10-straight home victories and their streak of 16-straight home night game victories were all snapped on Saturday against their consistent Big XII nemesis, Kansas State, 41-34. The Wildcats have now beaten the Sooners in all three of the team's Big XII conference opening games in the last 15 years. Oklahoma has lost just two of their last 30 home games and both have come to, guess who, Kansas State.

"We had a setback and it was nothing that we planned for, so I'm certainly disappointed in so many ways," said Brent Venables in his presser after the game, who lost for the first time as a head coach. "I do believe our guys will respond the right way. We have great leadership, tremendous buy-in and great accountability. We're down in the mud right now, there's no doubt about it, but we're going to take this one on the chin and try to learn and grow from it. We have two options in how we respond moving forward, so I feel strong and have a clear vision on how I think our guys will respond to this. Again, hats off to Kansas State, they came in and earned the victory in every way, there wasn't any fluke about it."

Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel completed 26-of-39 for 330 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the loss. His touchdowns went to TE Brayden Willis (2), Marvin Mim (1) and Theo Wease (1). For the game, the Sooners out-gained the Wildcats 550 yards to 509 yards in total offense. Oklahoma was sloppy, however, committing 11 penalties for a total of 87 yards.

Oklahoma's defense, which has shined under the tutelage of Venables in the first three weeks, struggled on the night as they failed to record a sack and allowed K-State to convert on 8-of-17 third downs and 2-of-2 on fourth downs. The backbreaker was a 55-yard scramble by K-State QB Adrian Martinez on third and 16 late in the fourth quarter. The scramble led to the final Wildcats touchdown that clinched the win.

Last season, the Sooners pounded the Horned Frogs 52-31 but that was a different Sooners team with a different quarterback and head coach. So far in 2022, Oklahoma's offense is 16th in scoring offense thus far this season and 32nd in red zone offense. Additionally, the Sooners rank 8th in total offense, 12th in rushing offense and 36th in passing offense. Defensively, the Sooners are ranked 24th in scoring defense, 47th in total defense, 74th in rushing defense and 37th in passing defense. The Sooners are ranked 20th in turnover differential and just 129th in time of possession.



Horned Frogs Jumping Along

The TCU Horned Frogs are now 3-0 for the first time since 2017 after getting past the drama-filled battle with SMU with a 42-34 win on Saturday in Dallas. Head coach Sonny Dykes and his staff can now refocus and look ahead to the Oklahoma Sooners, as the only undefeated FBS team left in Texas. Oh, and the Iron Skillet is back in TCU following the win.

“I’m glad this is over,” said Dykes, who faced a similar situation last year taking SMU to Louisiana Tech, where he coached from 2010-12, told AP after the win. “I’m hopeful now we can go on and I coach my team and not have to deal with some this stuff you have to deal with.”

Quarterback Max Duggan threw for three touchdowns while running back Kendre Miller ran for 142 yards as TCU built up a 28-7 lead in the first half before holding off a late Mustangs rally for the win. Duggan completed 22 of 29 passes for 278 yards in the game overall. TCU ended the day with 478 total yards for the day including 191 yards on the ground. Emari Demercado came up big in the fourth quarter with two rushing touchdowns, including a career-long 63-yard touchdown run to seal the win.

The Horned Frogs' defense bent but never fully broke in the win. They allowed 476 total yards on the day including a whopping 372 yards through the air. However, it was a huge pick by defensive back Josh Newton that set up a score after the Mustangs cut the lead to 28-21.

TCU will look to avenge last season's decisive road loss to the Sooners. After three games, TCU ranks 17th in scoring offense and 33rd in total offense. The Horned Frogs are 10th in rushing offense but just 86th in passing offense. Defensively, TCU ranks 50th in scoring defense, 46th in total defense, 27th in rush defense and just 116th in passing defense. TCU is ranked 20th in turnover differential and 84th in time of possession.

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


In what will be a high-scoring BIG XII affair, as per usual, the two major components will be the Oklahoma Sooners pass attack vs. the suspect TCU secondary and the TCU rushing attack vs. the Sooners 74th ranked rush defense. Overall, the Sooners have the more balanced attack of the two teams with a top 50 offense in both rushing and passing. In addition, the Sooners' defense has shown improvement from previous units with the insertion of Venables' defensive philosophies. Last week, the Sooners' defense fell flat against the Wildcats as they were unable to contain a mobile quarterback and gave up huge chunk plays down the stretch. Oklahoma's run defense has been solid up to that point and they will undoubtedly stack the box here and force the Horned Frogs to try and beat them through the air. On the other side of the ball, the Sooners have been adept at both the run and pass this season but must be salivating at the opportunity to attack TCU's 112th-ranked pass defense. This line has jumped up over a point this week and it's not surprising. The Sooners have something to prove after their home upset loss while the Horned Frogs look like a team ready for a letdown after an emotional win over their new head coach's former team.

Lay the points and go with the Sooners.

Prediction: Oklahoma -6.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


This is BIG XII football so there isn't a total that is too high. The Sooners' defense looked like a team that was susceptible to the big play this week and the Horned Frogs certainly have some burners that can rip off chunk plays. Oklahoma has a skilled passing attack that should feast on TCU's poor pass defense. The points will come fast and furious as they do in most BIG XII Conference affairs and the Sooners should be playing into the 40s in this one to easily surpass the game total. Last season, the two teams produced over 80 points and, while some of the characters have changed, the big play capabilities of both teams have not.

Take the over, 68.5 points.

Prediction: Over 68.5

Written By Mark Ruelle , "Mark Ruelle"

Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.