Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#145 Purdue vs.
#146 Minnesota
Saturday, October 1, 2022 at 12:00pm EDT
Written by Dave Kovaleski

There's a Big Ten battle as the Minnesota Golden Gophers host the Purdue Boilermakers Saturday afternoon on the gridiron. The 21st-ranked Golden Gophers are 4-0 on the season, including 1-0 in the conference, while the Boilermakers are 2-2 and 0-1 in the Big Ten. Minnesota has won 8 of the last 10 matchups between the two teams, with Minnesota winning last year 20-13 at Purdue as a 1.5-point favorite. Minnesota is favored by 12.5 points in this game.

Purdue escapes with a win

The Purdue Boilermakers are off to a 2-2 start on the 2022 season, including an 0-1 mark in the Big Ten. They lost the opener to No. 11 ranked Penn State at home 35-31, just missing the cover as a 3.5-point underdog. they followed that up with a 56-0 beatdown of an overmatched Indiana State team. In week three, they fell to Syracuse at Syracuse but covered as a 1-point underdog. Then last week they improved to 2-2 but barely survived, beating Florida Atlantic 28-26 as a 16-point favorite. The Boilermakers were lucky to win this as Florida Atlantic outgained them 419 to 354. It took a fourth-quarter touchdown pass from Austin Burton to TJ Sheffield with 8 minutes left to give them a 28-20 lead and the ultimate margin of victory.

Burton had a solid game for Purdue, going 21 for 29 for 166 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Charlie Jones caught 9 passes for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns while Devin Mockobee had 4 catches for 59 yards. Dylan Downing did good work, rushing for 113 yards and a touchdown. But the defense was shaky, as Florida Atlantic passed for 230 yards and ran for 189 yards -- topping Purdue in both categories. Purdue averages 36 points per game, which ranks 43rd in the nation. They are 18th in passing yards and 91st in rushing yards. Defensively, they give up 23 points per game, which ranks 61st nationally. They are 47th against the run and 45th against the pass.

 

Minnesota dominates Michigan State

The 21st-ranked Minnesota Golden Gophers are off to a great start at 4-0 on the season. They just blew out lesser opponents in their first three games, beating New Mexico State 38-0 as a 36-point favorite, smoking Western Illinois 62-10 as a 42-point favorite, and drilling Colorado 49-7 as a 28-point favorite. So they hadn't really been challenged. Then last week they opened their Big Ten schedule by taking on Michigan State at Lansing. The Golden Gophers were only favored by 3 and they dominated the Spartans, winning 34-7. So that was indeed an impressive win. The Golden Gophers' defense has been the headliner. Against Michigan State, a team that averaged well over 30 points per game, they held them to 7 points and 240 total yards. Minnesota gained 508 total yards.

They also turned them over three times, with two interceptions. Offensively, Tanner Morgan was almost perfect, going 22 for 26 for 268 yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Their star running back Mohamed Ibrahim rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown, while Michael Brown-Stephens had 6 catches for 73 yards. Daniel Jackson caught two touchdown passes, The Golden Gophers allow just 6 points per game, which is 2nd in the nation, and they are first in total yards against, giving up just 188 per game. Offensively. they average 45.8 points per game, which is 11th in the nation. They are third with 543 total yards per game and second in rushing yards per game with 294.5 per contest.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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I'm kind of surprised the line is only 12.5 points here. Minnesota is just coming off a game where they throttled Michigan State by 27 points, on the road, as a three-point favorite.  Michigan State is ranked higher than Purdue in the most recent power rankings, even after getting drubbed by Minnesota, so I just don't see how Purdue will have enough firepower to keep this close enough to cover. I'm even more skeptical after seeing Purdue struggle against a very average Florida Atlantic team. Minnesota's defense is legit, with no apparent weaknesses, so I don't see a Purdue offense that was outgained by Florida Atlantic doing much against it. Take Minnesota giving up the points.

Prediction: Minnesota -12.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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The total seems high here at 51. Minnesota gives up a grand total of 6 points per game on average, and they have not played all cupcakes. They held a Pac-12 foe, Colorado, to 7 points, and a good Michigan State team to 7 points. The Boilermakers will do well to hit double digits against Minnesota, but I honestly don't see them scoring more than 10 points against this defense. Given that Minnesota is one of the best running teams in the country, and has an efficient quarterback, they dominate the clock. they are No. 1 in the country in time of possession, holding it for 42 minutes per game on average. They'll control the clock enough here to keep the score down and put the final number below the total. Take the under here.

Prediction: Under 51
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Written By Dave Kovaleski , "Dave Kovaleski"

Dave has covered every major sport with passion and expertise for national sports publications and we are very happy to have him as a part of our team here at Winners & Whiners and StaSalt. In addition to being a sportswriter and sports bettor, Dave has also worked in the financial industry and brings a critical eye for numbers to his analysis of games. Dave thoroughly researches the statistics to spot the trends and break down the matchups to successfully find the winners in the NFL, NBA, MLB, college hoops, and other sports. You will not be disappointed in following Dave on a daily basis.