Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#181 Texas A&M vs.
#182 Mississippi St
Saturday, October 1, 2022 at 4:00pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

The Texas A&M Aggies (3-1, 2-2 ATS, 0-4 O/U) battle the Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1, 2-1-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U) in an SEC clash on Saturday afternoon. The Aggies defeated Arkansas in their previous bout. The Bulldogs improve to 3-1 after a dominating home win against Bowling Green last week. Mississippi State posted a road 26-22 win against Texas A&M last season.

Aggies Rebound in Win vs. Arkansas

The Texas A&M Aggies are targeting a third consecutive win. They have rebounded nicely from the upset home loss against Appalachian State in week two. They defeated Miami Florida 17-9 in week three and were one-point favorites in a big 23-21 home win against #10 Arkansas last week in their SEC opener. The Aggies have covered the points in two of their four games.

Haynes King was named the #1 QB before the season but was benched after the stunning loss to Appalachian State. Max Johnson hasn’t fared particularly well, converting on only 53% of his pass attempts. The junior QB transferred from LSU in the offseason and has 314 passing yards accompanied by a 2:0 TD to INT ratio.

The Aggies prefer to run. Devon Achane is a beast. The junior RB had a remarkable 159 rushing yards against Arkansas and is up to 355 yards on the year. The Aggies only have two receivers with at least 100 yards. Ainias Smith injured his leg in the win last week. Unfortunately, the senior WR is out for the remainder of the season which is a big blow to the WR core.

The Aggies' defense is their top strength. They weren’t at their best last week though, allowed 415 total yards.  The pass defense is elite, standing 10th in the entire FBS while the rush defense needs work, marking 104th overall. The Aggies climbed six spots to #17 in the AP Top 25 this week.

Texas A&M is scoring an average of 21.3 points, landing them 108th. They are holding foes to 11.8 points, good for ninth.

Bulldogs Prepare for Challenging Schedule

The Mississippi State Bulldogs' daunting schedule begins. Their next four games are against ranked opponents. They won their first two games of the year against Memphis and Arizona. Next, they lost the SEC opener 31-16 at LSU and were huge 31-point favorites in a solid 45-14 home win against Bowling Green on Saturday. The Bulldogs have covered the spread in two of their four games.

Will Rogers continues to dazzle. The junior QB has eclipsed 300 passing yards in three of the four games for a total of 1386 passing yards accompanied by a 16:3 TD to INT ratio. This will be the best defense he has seen this season.

The Bulldogs don’t run often. Dillon Johson has excelled, recording 234 rushing yards on an average of 6.5 yards per carry. Mississippi State has one of the best receiving cores in the FBS, featuring three receivers with at least 180 yards. Caleb Ducking brought in 96 yards last week and leads the team with 258 yards. The offense has scored at least 40 points in two of their four games.

The Bulldogs’ offense isn’t as strong as the offense. They allowed 417 yards against LSU and easily shut down a weak Bowling Green offense to 250 yards last week. The pass defense stands 49th while the rush defense has especially been stellar, landing 46th.

Mississippi State is scoring an average of 37.3 points, good for 36th overall. The defense is conceding an average of 21.3 points, placing them 50th in the FBS.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Rating:

The Texas A&M Aggies have not fared well on offense and were dealt a stunning 17-14 upset loss against Appalachian State in week two. The Bulldogs have won three of their four games and definitely have the better offense in this matchup. Aggies' top WR Ainias Smith is out for the rest of the season.

Furthermore, Mississippi State QB Will Rogers will be the deciding factor in this game. The star QB has surpassed 300 passing yards in all but one game this season and feasted on the Aggies' defense in the 26-22 win last season, accumulating 408 passing yards. The Aggies rely on their pass defense but Rogers had no problem feasting on the unit last year. Moreover, the Bulldogs' defense isn’t perfect but the Texas A&M offense has been horrible, ranking 100th or lower in all offensive categories. Aggies QB Max Jonhson hasn't fared particularly well, converting on only 50 and 52% of his passes respectively against Miami FL, and Arkansas. The Aggies' running game has been mediocre as well, averaging only 4.4 yards per carry. 

Prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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Rating:

I expect a defensive battle. The Texas A&M offense only managed 14 against Appalachian State followed by 17 points against Miami Florida and Max Johnson has struggled to find a groove. The Aggies also run more than pass and that will lead to longer possessions and more time off the clock.

In addition, the Aggies rely on defense to stay in games and while Rogers will produce, it won’t be as easy as in previous games this season. The Aggies rank 10th against the pass and have allowed 17 or fewer points in three of their four games The under has delivered in all four of the Aggies games this season.

Prediction: Under 45.5
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Written By Adam Rauzino , "Adam Rauzino"

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. He enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and being an expert sports bettor. Prior to bringing his talents here to Winners and Whiners, Adam graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance. You would do yourself a huge favor by following Adam on a daily basis.