Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#105 UL Monroe -3 vs.
#106 Texas State 62
Thursday, October 10, 2019 at 9:15pm EDT
Written by Ricky Dimon



#105 University of Louisiana at Monroe
#106 Texas State University


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The Texas State Bobcats will be trying to extend their winning streak to three games when they entertain the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Bobcat Stadium on Thursday night.

Up and down season

The season has been a bit of a roller-coaster ride for the Warhawks, who won their opener, dropped two in a row, and then went win-loss. They are coming off a 19-point set back against Memphis in what was an absolute shootout. The Tigers racked up 535 yards of total offense during a 52-33 win over Louisiana-Monroe.

"We did a lot of good things offensively," head coach Matt Viator said. "We were so close to a couple of other things there that could have made a difference.... We went through a stretch there, three or four series, where I thought we played really good defense. That's when we got held twice on fourth down. We've just got to match it where we're playing really well on both sides of the ball at the same time."

The Warhawks' offense, which is led by quarterback Caleb Evans, averages 470 yards and 31.6 points per game. Evans, now a senior, started four games as a freshman and has been in charge of the offense ever since. He has thrown for 1,172 yards and 10 touchdowns in the early stages of this 2019 campaign to go along with 268 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Evans has a plethora of options at receiver, as five pass-catches have already recorded more than 100 receiving yards on the season.

Lights-out defense

Texas State can suddenly get back to .500 after losing its first three contests of the 2019 campaign. It has begun to right the ship with consecutive victories over Georgia State and Nicholls State. The Bobcats will be playing on plenty of rest after hammering Nicholls State 24-3 two weeks ago.

"The defense continued to play lights out all game tonight," head coach Jake Spavital praised. "I was very pleased with how we responded in the third quarter, especially against a Nicholls team that has dominated their opponents in the third quarter this season. It was a defensive game and our defense was stout tonight."

Texas State is built on a defense that is strong up the middle and has forced its share of turnovers. Bryan London II is the playmaker, having racked up 48 tackles in addition to one sack and an interception. Fellow linebacker Nikolas Daniels has 40 tackles and two sacks--one in the most recent game. As for the Bobcat offense, that is led by JUCO transfer quarterback Gresch Jensen (1,121 yards, five touchdowns) and running backs Caleb Twyford (294 yards) and Anthony Taylor (115). Receiver Hutch White is Jensen's favorite target with 31 receptions for 236 yards, while big-play threat Jahmarae Sheread has 17 catches for 186 yards and a score.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


Texas State is looking like the more balanced team these days given that it can play plenty of defense. Daniels ranks seventh among Sun Belt Conference leaders in tackles, while London is 21st in the nation and second in the SBC with 9.6 tackles per game (tied a school record with 22 against Georgia State). The Louisiana-Monroe defense is surrendering 507 yards of total offense and 39 points per game. In other words, Memphis' performance this past weekend was no fluke. The Warhawks are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit home loss, 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous outing, and 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 October games.

Prediction: Texas State Bobcats

Full-Game Total Pick

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If nothing else, Louisiana-Monroe's defense at least has been opportunistic. The Warhawks have six interceptions, including three by cornerback Corey Straughter. Linebackers Cortez Sisco (36 tackles) and Rashaad Harding (30 tackles, two sacks) are the anchors of the unit. They will probably have to come up big on Saturday in order to match the prowess of Texas State's defense. The under is 9-3 in the Warhawks' last 12 on the road, 4-0 in their last four against the Sun Belt Conference, and 6-1 in their last seven against opponents with losing records. It is also 8-3 in the Bobcats' last 11 overall, 5-1 in their last six at home, 5-2 in their last seven against the Sun Belt Conference, and 4-1 in their last five following an off week. Go with the under.

Prediction: Under

Written By Ricky Dimon

A 2006 graduate of Davidson College, Ricky is based in Atlanta, Georgia. Prior to joining the Winners & Whiners Staff, he worked with various websites in the sports handicapping industry and is generally a fan of going with the hot hand while in most cases showing a willingness to take favorites and give the points. Beyond the four major sports, Ricky is an avid tennis fan—and writer—and covers the ATP Tour on a daily basis.