Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#139 Hawaii 59 vs.
#140 Boise State -12
Saturday, October 12, 2019 at 10:15pm EDT
Albertsons Stadium, Boise
Written by Ricky Dimon

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#139 University of Hawaii at Manoa
#140 Boise State University
4-1
5-0
3-2
4-1
2-3
2-3
36
32
27
15

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The Boise State Broncos will be hoping to remain undefeated when they host the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Albertsons Stadium on Saturday night.

Head-to-head hopelessness

The Rainbow Warriors are off to a 4-1 start, with a loss only to then-No. 23 Washington. They preceded that blemish with defeats of Arizona and Oregon State before following it up by beating Central Arkansas and Nevada. Their 54-3 win over Nevada two weeks ago marked the third-largest margin for a road win in program history. Thanks in part to that onslaught, Hawaii is averaging 37 points per game so far this season.

The underdogs will need something similar if they want to reverse course from a 3-12 all-time record against Boise State, including 0-6 on the blue turf while losing those six road games by an average margin of 35 points.

"Everybody needs to get over the fact that it is Boise State," head coach Nick Rolovich explained. "This aura that they have earned is a weapon for them."

Junior quarterback Cole McDonald is completing 68.9 percent of his attempts for 1,629 yards and 17 touchdowns compared to nine interceptions. Seniors Cedric Byrd II and JoJo Ward lead the receiving corps; Byrd has 40 receptions for 498 yards and nine touchdowns and Ward has 28 catches for 418 yards and six scores. Redshirt freshman cornerback Kai Kaneshiro and senior safety Ikem Okeke share the team lead of two interceptions and senior safety Kalen Hicks has a team-best 36 tackles for a unit allowing 27.4 points per game.

Weaver fever

Boise State has kicked off its 2019 campaign with consecutive victories over Florida State, Marshall, Portland State, Air Force, and UNLV. Not to surprisingly, only FSU has been more competitive than a touchdown margin and the Broncos have won their last three games all by double-digits. Junior pass rusher Curtis Weaver has nine sacks this season to raise his career count to a new Mountain West Conference record of 29.5, breaking the mark of 28.5 shared by BYU's Jan Jorgensen and TCU's Jerry Hughes. Weaver, who leads a defensive unit allowing just 16 points per game, is only 2.5 sacks behind second-place Chris Wing (1994-96) on the Broncos' all-time list.

The Broncos are averaging 32.6 points per game thanks in part to freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier. He has been solid while throwing for 1,489 yards and eight touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. Boise State does not have a go-to receiver, but it does boast three with more than 300 yards in sophomore Khalil Shakir (26 catches, 357 yards), senior John Hightower (17 catches, 303 yards), and junior C.T. Thomas (16 catches, 302 yards).

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Bachmeier has a big edge at the quarterback position, as McDonald is throwing way too many interceptions. With Weaver leading the defense and plenty of offensive weapons to support Bachmeier, Boise State has no major weaknesses. Also getting to play this one at home means it should be another beatdown on the blue turf in the Broncos' favor. The Rainbow Warriors are 17-40-1 ATS in their last 58 against the Mountain West Conference, 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 following a win, and 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 October games. Boise State is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 at home against opponents with winning road records and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams.

Prediction: Boise State Broncos

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Junior linebacker Riley Whimpey has a team-high 30 tackles for Boise State, which limited UNLV to 69 yards rushing in last Saturday's 38-13 victory. The Broncos have allowed just 22 second-half points in 2019. If McDonald keeps making mistakes, that will continue. The under is 5-2 in the Rainbow Warriors' last seven on fieldturf and 6-1 in their last seven after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous outing. It is also 8-2 in the Broncos' last 10 overall, 22-8 in their last 30 at home, 6-0 in their last six against the Mountain Western Conference, and 7-0 in their last seven against opponents with winning records. Additionally, the under is 4-1 in Hawaii's last five at Boise State. Expect this one to stay under the total.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Ricky Dimon

A 2006 graduate of Davidson College, Ricky is based in Atlanta, Georgia. Prior to joining the Winners & Whiners Staff, he worked with various websites in the sports handicapping industry and is generally a fan of going with the hot hand while in most cases showing a willingness to take favorites and give the points. Beyond the four major sports, Ricky is an avid tennis fan—and writer—and covers the ATP Tour on a daily basis.