Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#145 New Mexico State 57 vs.
#146 Central Michigan -10.5
Saturday, October 12, 2019 at 3:00pm EDT
Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant
Written by Chris Kubala

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#145 New Mexico State University
#146 Central Michigan University
0-6
3-3
3-3
4-1-1
2-4
4-2
18
25
42
28

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It’s a non-conference matchup on the gridiron coming from the Great Lakes State. The New Mexico State Aggies make the trip north as they take on the Central Michigan Chippewas Saturday afternoon. New Mexico State was defeated 20-13 at home by Liberty last Saturday in their previous contest. Central Michigan blew past Eastern Michigan 42-16 in their MAC opener last Saturday on the road. This marks the first time that the two programs will take the field against each with both programs as FBS schools in their history.

New Mexico State Aggies Seek First Win of Season

New Mexico State was downed at home by Liberty in the first of their two games against the Flames this season. The Aggies are still in search of their first victory of the season as they take the field in this contest. New Mexico State rallied from a 13-3 deficit to tie the game midway through the fourth quarter only to give up the winning score less than 90 seconds after knotting the contest. The Aggies owned a 396-334 advantage in total offense and picked up 23 first downs while allowing 20. On the negative side, New Mexico State lost the time of possession margin 31:21 to 28:39 and turned the ball over three times while failing to record a takeaway. The Aggies’ final turnover came at the Liberty six-yard line with 3:15 to play: the Flames then ran out the clock.

The Aggies are 63rd in the nation in passing offense with 248.5 yards per game and stand 122nd in rushing offense with only 102.8 yards per contest. New Mexico State is just 120th in the FBS in scoring offense with 18.2 points per game and stand a dismal 129th in scoring defense by allowing 42.7 points per game. Josh Adkins has completed 149 of 236 passes for 1,475 yards with six touchdowns and 11 interceptions: he has four rushing scores despite his total of only 19 rushing yards. Matt Romero is two of six for 16 yards this season. Jason Huntley leads the team with 57 carries for 375 yards and three scores on the ground: Christian Gibson (33 carries, 120 yards) and Josh Foley (seven carries, 51 yards) are next in line. Tony Nicholson is tied for the team lead with 35 catches for 380 yards plus three scores this season. OJ Clark (35 grabs, 278 yards), Huntley (21 receptions, 120 yards, two TD), Robert Downs III (10 catches, 116 yards, TD) and Izaiah Lottie (15 grabs, 139 yards) are other reliable targets. Dylan Brown has hit all 13 extra point attempts and six of nine field goal tries with a long of 46 this season.

Central Michigan Chippewas Look to Keep Rolling

Central Michigan opened up conference play with a one-sided win over Eastern Michigan in their MAC opener last week. The Chippewas now look for back to back wins as they host a winless team in this contest. Central Michigan broke open a 7-3 game with 21 unanswered points to take a 28-3 lead and didn’t look back. The Chippewas owned a 587-285 advantage in total offense, picked up 25 first downs while allowing 21 and owned a 32:12 to 27:48 advantage in time of possession. Central Michigan did turn the ball over twice while forcing only one takeaway but had three scoring plays that covered at least 64 yards.

The Chippewas are 59th in the FBS in passing offense by throwing for 249.7 yards per contest while ranking 79th in rushing offense with 149 yards per game. Central Michigan is 92nd in the FBS in scoring offense by scoring 25.3 points per game while they stand 78th in scoring defense by allowing 28.3 points per contest. David Moore is 94 of 164 passing for 1,143 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions this season. Quinten Dormady is 32 of 49 for 321 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Jonathan Ward leads the team with 54 carries for 400 yards plus four scores: Kobe Lewis (76 carries, 330 yards, five TD) and Lew Nichols (19 carries, 89 yards) are next in line. Kalil Pimpleton is the team’s leading receiver with 40 catches for 410 yards and three scores: Tyrone Scott (19 grabs, 330 yards, two TD) and Tony Poljan (18 catches, 177 yards, TD) are next in line. Ryan Tice has hit all 16 extra point attempts and six of nine field goal tries with a long of 55 this season.

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New Mexico State put together a solid showing last week but that game came at home against a Liberty team in their second year as an FBS program. The Aggies have been awful defensively this season and that is a major challenge for them here, especially after seeing Central Michigan put up big numbers on the road last week against Eastern Michigan. The Chippewas are at home here with the momentum of their victory last week. New Mexico State is a -14 in the takeaway/giveaway department, having forced just three turnovers. Central Michigan cruises in this one, leaving the Aggies sitting at 0-7.

Prediction: Central Michigan Chippewas -11.5

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New Mexico State's defense has been awful this season. While they held Liberty in check last week, the fact remains that we've already seen the Aggies give up at least 55 points in three different games and at least 30 points in five of their six contests. That puts a lot of pressure on an offense that, quite frankly, isn't that great and is prone to turning the ball over. Central Michigan is coming off a huge offensive showing in their romp over Eastern Michigan last week. The Chippewas are at home here: can they build off their offensive showing and earn another victory?

The over is 19-8-2 in the Aggies' last 29 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game and 7-3-1 in their last 11 games on fieldturf. Central Michigan has seen the over go 7-1 in their last 8 games following a straight up win, 5-1 in their last 6 games on fieldturf and 4-1 in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. With Central Michigan coming off an offensive bonanza last week and New Mexico State a sieve defensively, you have to think that this one goes over the number.

Prediction: Over 57
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.