Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#117 Toledo vs.
#118 Bowling Green
Saturday, October 12, 2019 at 12:00pm EDT
Doyt Perry Stadium, Bowling Green
Written by Nick Raffoul

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#117 University of Toledo
#118 Bowling Green State University
4-1
1-4
3-2
1-4
2-3
1-4
33
14
23
40

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The Toledo Rockets will travel to Doyt L. Perry Stadium for Week 7 matchup versus Bowling Green Falcons on Saturday afternoon.

These two teams enter this game heading in polar opposite directions. Toledo hasn’t lost a contest since the team’s season-opening defeat on the road versus Kentucky and they’ve riled off back-to-back wins over a pair of tough teams in BYU and Western Michigan. On the other hand, Bowling Green enters riding a four-game losing streak during which they’ve been outscored 201 to 27. Can the Falcons get back on track against a Toledo team playing with a ton of confidence?

Toledo hopes to extend streak in I-75 rivalry game

The Rockets enter their second conference contest favored by nearly four touchdowns (-26.5), which bodes well for their chances in this game. The Rockets come into this year’s I-75 rivalry game with Bowling Green searching for their 10th straight win over the Falcons. They’ve won nine straight in the series, with the last Falcons victory coming in 2009.

Toledo improved to 4-1 and 1-0 in MAC Conference play with a 31-24 victory over Western Michigan last week. Quarterback Mitchell Guadagni passed for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while adding two more scores on the ground to help the Rockets push their current winning streak to four games. Sophomore running back Bryant Koback rushed for a team-high 177 yards on the day and leads the team in rushing with 628 yards and seven total touchdowns. He could be poised for another big game this week against a run defense that has allowed an average of 304 rushing yards per game over their last two contests. Bowling Green’s run defense has allowed 223.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 122nd of 130 FBS teams.

Toledo has shown some promise on defense this year, allowing 23.6 points per game and 464.4 yards of total offense per contest. They’ve been particularly vulnerable through the air, where they are surrendering a whopping 301.2 passing yards per game this season. However, the Rockets have been more of a bend-but-don’t-break defense this year, as they lead the conference in scoring defense, but are last in total yardage.

Bowling Green bottoms out vs. Notre Dame

Bowling Green’s latest performance has them locked into ESPN’s Bottom 10 football programs in the country. The Falcons lost 52-0 versus No.9-ranked Notre Dame last week, pushing their current losing streak to four games. During that span, Bowling Green has been outscored by an average of 43.5 points per game and they’ve scored more than one touchdown just once, which came in a 62-20 drubbing against Kent State.

It is hard to find positives for the Falcons during the streak, especially after the team just gave up 572 yards of total offense to Notre Dame. Through that number pales in comparison to the 750 yards of offense that they gave up to Kent State the week prior. As you might have noticed, the defense has been a major problem for the Falcons this season. Bowling Green has given up 40.8 points and 473.4 yards of total offense per game, including 223.2 yards per game on the ground. Stopping the run is going to be a major focal point this weekend against a Rockets’ offense averaging 264.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 10th in the country.

The Falcons haven’t been much better on the offensive side of the ball during the streak either. They’ve scored just 27 points over their last four games (6.8 points per game), which prompted a change at quarterback in last week’s loss to the Fighting Irish. Starter Darius Wade was pulled from the game despite completing his only two passes, giving way to backup Grant Loy, who finished 13-of-25 for 106 yards and one interception on the day. Loy provided a spark off the bench in the team’s 62-20 loss to Kent State a few weeks ago, throwing his first touchdown pass of the season. Wade started the first five games of the year, but there have been no official announcements regarding who will start this week’s game versus Toledo.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Bowling Green hasn’t given us much of a chance to trust them coming into this game. They’ve scored just 27 points during their four-game losing streak, while being shut out 52-0 twice during that span. Two of those losses came against non-Power Five opponents and they were blown out in their conference opener versus Kent State. Toledo is fresh off a pair of confidence-building victories and they come in riding a four-game winning streak. Toledo should have no problem moving the ball in this game, especially on the ground, where the Falcons are allowing 223.2 yards per game. Take the Rockets to cover the number on the road in this MAC matchup on Saturday. 

Prediction: Toledo Rockets -26.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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The total is set fairly high at 64.5 points, so the under has to be the play here. Bowling Green is allowing better than 40 points per contest, but their offense has scored more than seven points just once in the past four weeks. That lone performance came against Kent State in game which they scored twice in the fourth quarter to put up a respectable 20 points. Since 2000, the winner of this game has averaged 40.2 points per game, but that might not be enough to push this one over the total here.  Toledo is going to win this game in a blowout, but unless they nearly cover the number on their own, I don’t see this game going over the projected total in this spot. 

Prediction: Under 64.5
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.