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New Mexico State vs. UL Lafayette,
10-13-2018 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#199 New Mexico State
Aggies 64
#200 UL Lafayette
Ragin Cajuns -7.5

Saturday, October 13, 2018 at 5:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

New Mexico State Aggies

2 - 4

2-4
ATS
4-2
O/U
21
PPG
39
OPPG

UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns

2 - 3

3-2
ATS
3-1
O/U
28
PPG
37
OPPG

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The New Mexico State Aggies will head on the road on Saturday night for a non-conference matchup versus the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns.

The Ragin’ Cajuns are just 2-3 this season with a 1-1 record against Sun Belt opponents, but they will take a break from conference play to play the Aggies at home here before heading on the road next week for a Sun Belt showdown versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers.

Adkins wakes up against Liberty

The Aggies may be just 2-4 on the season, but they come into their matchup against the Ragin’ Cajuns riding a two-game winning streak. New Mexico State took down Liberty 49-41 last week behind their best offensive performance of the season. Josh Adkins threw for 402 yards and four touchdowns, while running back Christian Gibson piled up 127 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries to propel the Aggies to their first winning streak of the year.

Coming into last week’s game Adkins had thrown for just 334 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, so it’s safe to say it was his coming out party. The Aggies’ allowed him to throw the ball 51 times on the night — by far his highest total of the season — and the strategy worked brilliantly, as the freshman quarterback led the team to victory for the second straight game.

New Mexico State comes in scoring only 21.8 points per game so far this year, while allowing 40 points per game on defense. They are getting out-gained by more than 125 yards game through six contests, as the defense is allowing an average of 449.2 yards of total offense per game.

Louisiana gets off schnide

The Ragin’ Cajuns snapped a three-game losing streak on Saturday with a 42-27 win on the road at Texas State. Louisiana Lafayette dominated from the opening kickoff, building a 28-0 lead before halftime and sealing the game with two second half touchdowns. Andre Nunez finished just 9 of 18 for 149 yards, one touchdown, and one interception on the night, but he didn’t have to do too much to carry his team to victory. Elijah Mitchell put the team on his back, carrying the ball 20 times for 191 yards and three touchdowns, while backfield mate Trey Ragas turned his 21 carries into 100 yards and a score to help the Ragin’ Cajuns improve to 2-3 for the season.

Nunez has left much to be desired under center so far this season. He’s yet to throw for more than 225 yards in a game this season and he comes in with six touchdowns to four interceptions through this first five games of the year. The senior quarterback does not have a lot of D-I experience and has thrown less than 200 career pass attempts at the college level, including the 98 he’s thrown already this season. Ragas has been the team’s workhorse back this season, racking up four 100-yard games through five contests, while averaging a healthy 7.0 yards a carry. He comes in with 505 rush yards and four touchdowns so far this year.

Louisiana Lafayette enters the week scoring 28.6 points per game and allowing 37.2 per game on the other side of the ball. Opponents are out-gaining the Ragin’ Cajuns by 70 yards per game and the defense has surrendered an average of 488.2 yards of total offense per contest.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Louisiana Lafayette racked up 327 rush yards last week and if they stick to a similar game plan versus New Mexico State, they should have plenty of success moving the ball on the ground. The Aggies enter this game allowing 449 yards of total offense this season — 245.5 of which have come on the ground. Take the Ragin’ Cajuns to cover the spread at home against New Mexico State in this spot.

Prediction: Pick: Louisiana Lafayette -10

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

I see this game going a lot like New Mexico State’s season-opening loss to Wyoming. Wyoming ran the ball down the Aggies’ throats in that game, while controlling time of possession and keeping the score down. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a two-headed monster in the backfield, so they should have no issues staying in third-and-short situations all night. They converted 11 of 16 third downs last week en route to arguably their most complete game of the season. Look for this game to stay under the projected total in this Sun Belt battle on Saturday evening.

Prediction: Under 65

Half-Time Side Pick
Rating:

The Ragin’ Cajuns should have no problems running all over this New Mexico State defense, especially after they surrendered 159 rush yards at home to Liberty last week. Two of Louisiana Lafayette’s losses this season have come against ranked teams, which have buoyed their season-long numbers. Take the Ragin’ Cajuns to cover the first half spread in this battle at Cajun Field on Saturday evening.

Prediction: Louisiana Lafayette -4

Half-Time Total Bet
Rating:

New Mexico State has given up at least 42 points in four of their last five games. They’ve struggled against teams that can run the ball effectively though. Wyoming ran for 312 yards on the Aggies defense, while Utah State rolled over them for 274 rush yards en route to a 47-point win. This Ragin’ Cajuns team is at its best when they are committed to running the football and controlling the clock. Expect them to control the clock in this game and take this one to go under the projected first half total on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Under 34.5

Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits.

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