The Boise State Broncos will host the Air Force Falcons on Saturday in a Mountain West Conference match-up. Boise State is 3-3 on the season, 1-1 in the conference, and 4-2 against the spread. Air Force is 5-1 overall, 2-1 in the MWC, and 4-2 against the spread.
Boise State has beaten Air Force both straight-up and against the spread in four straight seasons. Last year, the Broncos came away with a 49-30 win as a 13-point road dog against the Falcons.
Air Force looking to end four game series losing streak to Boise StateThe Air Force Falcons are widely known for their triple-option offensive attack run out of the flex bone formation. The Falcons lead the nation in rushing attempts (66.5) and rushing yards (341.3) per game. Air Force only averages 7.3 passing attempts and 82.3 passing yards per game, ranking them in the bottom three nationally. Still, overall the Falcons have managed to score 32.7 ppg, which is 42nd in the country, and the team's 432.7 yards per game of total offense ranks 53rd.
Junior quarterback Haaziq Daniels has completed 51.2% of his passes for 494 yards with two touchdowns and one interception this season, ranking second on the team with 435 rushing yards but first with eight touchdowns on 79 attempts.
Air Force has been tremendous defensively this season, ranking seventh in the nation holding FBS opponents to only 279.6 total yards per game and 22nd with 4.7 yards per play.
Last Saturday, Air Force won its third straight game by defeating Wyoming 24-14 as a 5.5 point home favorite. The Falcons defeated New Mexico 38-10 as an 11.5 point favorite in the prior weeks and Florida Atlantic 31-7 as a three-point favorite. The Falcons have also defeated Louisana Layfate 35-14 as a 40 point favorite and Navy 23-3 as a six-point favorite this season. The lone loss for Air Force came on September 17, when they lost to Utah State 49-45 as a nine-point home favorite.
Boise State looking to build off win over BYUBoise State is coming off a solid 26-17 win as a six-point road underdog to BYU last Saturday. The Broncos were outgained 413 to 312 in total yardage in the win but did not turn the ball over, while BYU lost three fumbles and threw an interception.
The Broncos are 48th in the nation averaging 31.5 yards per game, 29th with 282 passing yards, and 121st with 92 rushing yards. Junior quarterback Hank Bachmeier has completed 65.8% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions this season. Bachmeier is not a threat to run, as he has no rushing touchdowns and -12 yards on the season.
Put in the work, seized the opportunity.— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) October 11, 2021
A full look at Saturday's upset win ⤵️
The Boise State defense is 78th in the nation allowing 5.7 yards per play against FBS teams and 81st with 414.3 yards allowed per game.
The Broncos' losses have come 36-31 as a 5.5-point road dog to UCF, 21-20 as a 3.5-point home favorite against Oklahoma State, and 41-31 as a four-point home favorite Nevada. Boise State also has beaten UTEP 54-13 as a 25-point home favorite and Utah State 27-3 as a 9.5 point road favorite this year.
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
The Air Force program has covered the spread in 10 of its last 14 games as a road underdog and should come in highly motivated to beat a Boise State team that has completely dominated this rivalry over the previous four seasons. The Falcons have a solid chance to get the upset coming in, as the Broncos are just 85th in the nation, allowing 180.2 rushing yards per game and 81st allowing 4.4 yards per rushing attempt.
The Broncos' offensive strength is their passing attack, which has been a strength for the Air Force defense this season. The Falcons rank 17th in the nation with a 111.8 opponents passer rating and 6.1 yards allowed per pass attempt.
Boise State has failed to cover the spread after its last six straight-up wins and is coming from a tough victory against BYU. I expect to see a bit of a letdown here from Boise State with Air Force keeping this game close, if not getting the upset win. Take Air Force to cover.
Full-Game Total Pick
Although a strong case can be made for the under in this game, due to Air Force keeping the ball on the ground and being excellent defensively in most of their games, I will go the other way.
When these two programs meet, a lot of points tend to be scored. Boise State beat Air Force 49-30 last year, and three of the last four head-to-head matchups have gone over the total.
Air Force has defended the pass well this season, but Boise State will present a more difficult challenge through the air than what the Falcons have seen from previous opponents. The Broncos will also have a tough time stopping the Falcons rushing attack. I will take this game to go over the total.