Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#173 Oklahoma State vs.
#174 Texas
Saturday, October 16, 2021 at 12:00pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

The #12 Oklahoma State Cowboys collide with the #25 Texas Longhorns in a Big 12 showdown on Saturday evening. The Cowboys remained perfect after topping Baylor in their latest action. The Longhorns had their winning streak thwarted in a tough home loss to #6 Oklahoma last week. Texas posted a 41-34 overtime win against Oklahoma State last season.

Cowboys Remain Perfect, Climb Rankings

The Oklahoma State Cowboys remain perfect. Last week marked their biggest challenge of the young season and they delivered with a 24-14 home win against #21 Baylor to cover the four-point spread. Oklahoma State topped #25 Kansas State in their conference opener and they have covered the points in three straight games.

Spencer Sanders was not at his best in the win against Baylor, posting 182 passing yards and tossed three interceptions. The junior QB is having an inconsistent season but is capable of big damage. He has tallied 781 passing yards along with a 5:4 TD to INT ratio. Jaylen Warren is in a groove, eclipsing the 100-yard mark in three straight clashes. Warren has 512 rushing yards on the season and the senior RB should find open field against a poor Texas rush defense. Tay Martin has posted at least 100 receiving yards in all three games played this season and is up to 317 receiving yards. The OK State offense has consistently produced all season although they have only surpassed 30 points once.

The Cowboys' defense has played the deciding factor in their undefeated start. They have limited their opponent to 20 or fewer points in three consecutive bouts. The pass defense is tabbed 51st in the FBS while the rush defense is 11th. Oklahoma State is averaging 25.4 points, placing them 89th overall. They are conceding an average of only 18.6 points, good for 25th in the FBS.

#25 Longhorns Come Up Short in Shootout with OU

The Texas Longhorns challenging schedule resumes. They were tabbed four-point dogs in a wild 55-48 defeat to #6 Oklahoma last week to snap a three-game winning streak. Texas now stands at 2-1 in conference play which included a remarkable 70-35 win against Texas Tech. The Longhorns have covered the points in four of their six games this season. Texas dropped four spots to #25 this week.

Casey Thompson was brilliant last week, accumulating 388 passing yards and five touchdowns. The junior QB officially won the starting job earlier in the season and has surpassed 300 passing yards in two out of his last three games. Thompson now has 1095 passing yards accompanied by a 14:3 TD to INT ratio. Watch for Bijan Robinson in this one. The sophomore is the best RB in the conference and has eclipsed 100 yards in all but one game for a season total of 789 yards.

Texas has several threatening WR’s including Xavier Worthy. The freshman accrued a stellar 261 receiving yards last week and now leads the team with 515 yards. The Longhorns offense has eclipsed the 30 point mark in each game except for the loss to Arkansas.

The Texas defense is a work in progress. They surrendered a whopping 662 total yards last week and are having trouble against the pass and run. The pass defense is pegged 86th while the rush defense is 110th in the FBS. The Longhorns are scoring an average of 44.5 points, good for fifth in the country. They are conceding an average of 29.2 points, landing them 94th overall.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Well, the Longhorns were able to accumulate 48 points on 516 yards against #6 Oklahoma last week and they have proven to have one of the most potent offensive units in the conference. I like Texas considering Oklahoma State doesn’t have the offense to keep up with Texas. They have scored 28 or fewer points in four of their five games on the season.

Furthermore, while the Cowboys do feature a good defense, they can be solved in the air, ranking 51st against the pass. Longhorns QB Casey Thompson collected a fantastic 388 passing yards against the Sooners last week. OK State QB Spencer Sanders tossed three interceptions last week and owns a subpar 3:3 TD to INT ratio in his last three games.

Prediction: Texas Longhorns -5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


This one will yield a barrage of points. The over has been the common trend with the Longhorns this season propelled by their powerhouse offense. They scored 70 points against Texas Tech three weeks ago and have averaged a ridiculous 50 points in their last three games. QB Thompson has accumulated 11 TD passes in that span. The over has delivered in four out of the Longhorns’ last five games.

In addition, the Cowboys should contribute to this total as well. They will have their chances to generate scoring drives against a Texas defense that ranks 87th against the pass and 110th against the run. OK State RB Jaylen Warren is in beast mode and should easily surpass 100 rushing yards.

Prediction: Over 60

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The over on the Texas team total should deliver. The Longhorns have a great QB in Casey Thompson and also have a dominant RB in Bijan Robinson who has rushed for nearly 800 yards. Robinson has rushed for 130 or more yards in three straight games. This is the best offense OK State has seen so far and Texas will thrive once again at home.

Prediction: Texas Team Total Over 31.5

Half-Time Prop Prediction

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I am going with the over on the first-quarter total. It’s been nothing but quick starts for the Longhorns. They are averaging 13 points in the first quarter this season, good for fifth in the FBS. Oklahoma State has averaged a solid 8.8 points, ranking them 23rd in first-half points.

Prediction: First Quarter Total Over 13.5

Written By Adam Rauzino , "Adam Rauzino"

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. He enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and being an expert sports bettor. Prior to bringing his talents here to Winners and Whiners, Adam graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance. You would do yourself a huge favor by following Adam on a daily basis.