Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#129 Texas Tech vs.
#130 Kansas
Saturday, October 16, 2021 at 4:00pm EDT
Written by Chris King

A pair of teams from the Big 12 in search of a conference victory take the field in the Sunflower State. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are on the road as they make the trip to face the Kansas Jayhawks Saturday afternoon. Texas Tech was drubbed 52-31 at home by TCU in their previous contest last Saturday. Kansas was off last week: they were pasted 59-7 on the road by Iowa State in their previous contest back on October 2. In the all-time series between the teams, the Red Raiders own a commanding 20-2 advantage, including a 16-13 home victory in the most recent matchup between the teams on December 5, 2020.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Looking to Regroup

Texas Tech has struggled against teams from the Lone Star State as they were torched by Texas earlier this season and then drubbed by TCU at home last week. The Red Raiders come into this one 4-2 on the season overall and 1-2 in the Big 12 so they’ll try to even their conference mark with a win here. Against TCU, Texas Tech trailed 14-0 in the first quarter and 28-7 just 14 seconds into the second quarter to put them in a hole they were unable to dig out of in the contest. The Red Raiders got no closer than 14 over the final nearly three quarters as they failed to slow down the Horned Frogs’ offense. Texas Tech held a 558-498 edge in total offense, picked up 25 first downs while allowing 18 and controlled the clock by a 31:06 to 28:54 margin yet lost convincingly. The Red Raiders committed the game’s only turnover, which was a pick-six by TCU in the second quarter.

The Red Raiders enter this contest 18th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 302.3 yards per game while they are 79th in rushing offense by grinding out 155.7 yards per game on the ground. Texas Tech is 34th in the FBS in scoring offense by averaging 34.8 points per contest while they are a dismal 113th in scoring defense by allowing 34.3 points per game. Tyler Shough has completed 64 of 92 passes for 872 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions on the year. Henry Colombi is 64 of 99 for 942 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 14 yards plus a score on the ground. Tahj Brooks leads the team in rushing with 35 carries for 284 yards plus four touchdowns. Xavier White (38 carries, 206 yards, two TD) and SaRodorick Thompson (50 carries, 231 yards, six TD) are also solid backs in the system. In the passing game, Erik Ezukanma leads the team with 26 receptions for 429 yards and a score. Myles Price (13 grabs, 157 yards, two TD) and Kaylon Geiger (25 catches, 396 yards, TD) are next in line. Jonathan Garibay has hit 26 of 27 extra-point attempts and seven of seven field goal tries with a long of 38 on the season.

Kansas Jayhawks Hoping to Bounce Back

Kansas opened their season with a victory but has been clobbered in each of their last four games with each loss coming by at least 19 points. The Jayhawks dropped to 1-4 overall and 0-2 in the Big 12 after getting hammered by Iowa State two weeks ago. There are conflicting reports as to whether they covered against Bye State last week. Against Iowa State, Kansas found itself down 28-0 after the opening quarter and you could turn the lights out at that point. The Jayhawks trailed 38-0 at the half and got no closer than 38-7 the rest of the way. Kansas lost 564-302 in total offense, gave up 25 first downs while picking up 18 and turned the ball over twice while failing to generate a takeaway. Those numbers more than negated a 33:15 to 26:45 edge in time of possession for the Jayhawks.

On the season, the Jayhawks are 108th in the nation in passing offense with 181.6 yards per contest through the air while they are 82nd in rushing offense with 149.4 yards per game on the ground. Kansas stands 122nd in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 17.2 points per game while they are 129th, or second-worst in the nation, in scoring defense by allowing 43.8 points per contest. Jason Bean is 66 of 118 passing for 852 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions while leading the team with 291 rushing yards plus two scores. Jalon Daniels (three of six, 49 yards) and Miles Kendrick (one of two, seven yards) have also seen limited action under center. Devin Neal (54 carries, 264 yards, two TD) and Torry Locklin (29 carries, 105 yards, two TD) are the top two backs in the run game for Kansas. Kwamie Lassiter II leads the team with 18 receptions for 235 yards plus a score. Trevor Wilson (15 grabs, team-high 271 yards, TD) and Lawrence Arnold (12 receptions, 138 yards, two TD) are the only other players with double-digit receptions for the Jayhawks. Jacob Borcila is eight of nine on extra-point attempts and four of six on field goal tries with a long of 50 on the season.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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Both teams have had their issues stopping opposing teams from putting points on the board but that’s about where the similarities stop. Kansas is weak on the offensive side of the ball: while they scored 33 points against Duke, they’ve scored a total of 53 points in their other four games. Texas Tech has struggled slowing opposing offenses but they are more than capable of piling up yards and putting points on the board. The Red Raiders should take advantage of the suspect Kansas defense and ring up enough points, even on the road, to put this one in the win column and cover the line for their fifth victory of the season.

Prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders -16.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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Texas Tech has scored at least 23 points in each of their six games this season and they have gone over the 30-point mark in four of those contests. The Red Raiders, after staying under the total in each of their first two games, have gone over the mark in three of their last four games, including point totals of 105 (against Texas) and 83 (against TCU) in that span. Kansas stayed under the number in their season-opening win but their last four games have all wound up over the total, even with the Jayhawks struggling when it comes to putting points on the board. The Jayhawks have surrendered at least 45 points in each of those four losses: that trend continues and helps edge this one over the number.

Prediction: Over 66.5
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Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.