Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#195 Troy vs.
#196 Texas State
Saturday, October 16, 2021 at 3:30pm EDT
Written by Blake V.

Troy and Texas State will both be hoping to build on victories when they square off on Saturday afternoon. The Trojans snapped a two-game losing streak with a 27-24 win against Georgia Southern last week. Texas State did the same, picking up a 33-31 win in four overtimes against South Alabama.

Watson replaces Powell at quarterback

Troy will be searching for its second road win of the season on Saturday afternoon. The Trojans are 2-1 in their three home games, with the lone loss coming against Liberty in Week 2. They are 1-2 on the road, though, losing to Louisiana-Monroe and South Carolina. Troy bounced back from the loss to the Gamecocks with a 27-24 win against Georgia Southern last week. Kicker Brooks Buce nailed a 24-yard field goal with 1:46 remaining to give his team the win. The Trojans held a 24-3 lead early in the third quarter before allowing two touchdowns in a two-minute span.

Troy has struggled offensively this season, ranked No. 103 in the country (351.5 yards per game). The coaching staff elected to start sophomore Gunnar Watson at quarterback in replacement of the banged-up Taylor Powell last week. Watson had a solid performance, completing 24 of 36 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns. The coaching staff has not announced who the starter will be on Saturday. Wide receiver Tez Johnson has caught 36 passes for 337 yards, while Reggie Todd has added 20 grabs for 265 yards. Running back Kimani Vidal has rushed for 287 yards and two touchdowns on 68 attempts, averaging 4.2 yards per carry.

Bobcats coming off quadrupal-overtime thriller

Texas State opened the season with a rare home game against a Power 5 opponent, coming up short in a 29-20 loss to Baylor. The Bobcats bounced back with a 23-17 win in overtime at Florida International before losing their next two games to Incarnate Word and Eastern Michigan. They responded last week, picking up a 33-31 win in a four-overtime thriller against South Alabama. The Jaguars jumped out to a 24-10 lead in the fourth quarter, but Texas State scored the final two touchdowns of regulation to send the game to overtime. The teams swapped touchdowns in the first overtime before both offenses failed to score in the next two extra periods.

The Bobcats would come away with a victory when Brady McBride scored on a two-point conversion in the fourth overtime. The sophomore quarterback has completed 58.8 percent of his passes for 973 yards and nine touchdowns this year, but he has also thrown six interceptions and been sacked 14 times. He leads an offense that ranks No. 105, averaging 346.0 yards per game. Running back Cavin Hill has been the spark plug, rushing for 309 yards on 60 carries. Wide receivers Javen Banks and Marcell Barbee have been McBride’s top targets in the passing game. They are going to face a Troy defense that has been outstanding, ranked seventh nationally in yards allowed per game (273.0).

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Full-Game Side Bet

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This is not the kind of defense that you want to face when points have been hard to come by. Troy has a top 10 defensive unit nationally and has won the last six meetings between these teams. McBride has struggled with turnovers and the offensive line is not doing a good job of giving him time. The Bobcats are outside the top 100 in offense, so it is tough to see them staying with Troy on Saturday. The Trojans are not an excellent offensive team either, but their defense will put them in good positions. They have covered the spread in five of their last six games against Texas State.

Prediction: Troy -7.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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Troy likes to slow the pace of the game down and rely on its defense to win games. This is the perfect matchup for that recipe, as Texas State has struggled to get its offense going this season. The Bobcats do not have much of a downfield passing threat. They are going to run the ball as much as they can, which will lead to a running clock. Troy should be able to hold them under two touchdowns on Saturday, making the under a nice play. The Trojans have cashed the under in nine of their last 10 road games and have gone under in four of their last five games overall.

Prediction: Under 49
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Written By Blake Von Hagen , "Blake V."

Blake is a lifelong sports fan and hoops junkie. Prior to joining our team at Winners & Whiners and StatSalt, Blake worked for several newspapers and websites. He enjoys combining his beat writing expertise with the knack for finding the winning edge in a matchup. Blake is also an avid sports being expert and you would not be disappointed in following him on a daily basis. Remember, it’s a marathon, not a sprint. 
Follow on Twitter @Blake_Vonhagen