Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#389 Baylor 63.5 vs.
#390 Oklahoma State -4
Saturday, October 19, 2019 at 4:00pm EDT
Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater
Written by Chris Kubala



#389 Baylor University
#390 Oklahoma State University


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It’s a Big 12 matchup coming to you live from the Sooner State with a ranked conference team going on the road. The #18 Baylor Bears are on the road as they travel to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys Saturday afternoon. Baylor comes in off a 33-30 double overtime win at home over Texas Tech last Saturday in their previous contest. Oklahoma State is coming off a bye last week: they fell 45-35 on the road to Texas Tech back on October 5 in their previous contest. The Cowboys lead the all-time series 20-17 but it was the Bears taking a 33-28 home win in the most recent matchup on November 3, 2018.

Baylor Bears Try to Remain Perfect in Big 12

Baylor may have benefitted from a blown call in their game against Texas Tech but the bottom line is that they earned a victory. The Bears are a perfect 6-0 and 3-0 in the Big 12, leaving them and Oklahoma as the lone teams without a loss in the conference. Baylor caught a break on a botched snap by center Jake Fruhmorgen that was recovered by Texas Tech but was ruled by officials as an illegal snap: they went on to score a touchdown on the possession in overtime. The Bears held a 525-510 edge in total offense, picked up 27 first downs while allowing 26 and were beaten in time of possession by a 31:00 to 29:00 margin. Both teams turned the ball over three times in the contest. Baylor did lose starting linebacker Clay Johnston to a knee injury that will cost him the season: Terrel Bernard takes over for him.

The Bears enter this contest 34th in the nation in passing offense with 276.3 yards per game and 39th in rushing as they average 199.2 yards per contest on the ground. Baylor stands 20th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 37.8 points per game while they are 17th in scoring defense by allowing only 17.8 points per contest. Charlie Brewer is 117 of 179 passing for 1,554 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions while adding 129 yards plus five scores on the ground. Gerry Bohanon is 10 of 15 for 104 yards and a score plus 181 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. John Lovett is the team’s leading ground gainer with 58 carries for 389 yards plus three scores. JaMycal Hasty (40 carries, 216 yards, two TD) and Trestan Ebner (26 carries, 150 yards, two TD) are solid options in the ground game. In the aerial attack, Denzel Mims leads the team with 32 grabs for 503 yards plus five touchdowns this season. Tyquan Thornton (24 receptions, 411 yards, three TD), R.J. Sneed (23 catches, 287 yards, two TD) and Chris Platt (13 grabs, 154 yards, TD) are solid options as well. John Mayers has hit all 25 extra points and four of six field goals with a long of 38 this season. Noah Rauschenberg is four of four on extra points and missed his lone field goal try.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Try to Rebound After Bye Week

Oklahoma State had a bye week last week so they have had two weeks to prepare for this one after losing to Texas Tech two weeks ago. The Cowboys look to tighten up defensively after getting singed by the Red Raiders in their previous contest. Oklahoma State trailed 20-0 less than five minutes into the second quarter and couldn’t get closer than the final score the rest of the way. The Cowboys were outgained 586-509, gave up 29 first downs while recording 26 and held a 31:56 to 28:04 advantage in time of possession. Turnovers killed Oklahoma State in the contest as they turned it over five times while failing to record a takeaway.

The Cowboys are 62nd in the nation in passing offense as they average 249.3 yards through the air this season. Oklahoma State has a dominant run game, ranking seventh in the country with 279 yards a game on the ground. The Cowboys stand 11th in the nation in scoring offense as they put up 39.8 points per contest while they are a mediocre 71st in scoring defense by allowing 27.5 points per game. Spencer Sanders is 100 of 158 passing for 1,333 yards with 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions while ranking second on the team with 426 rushing yards and two scores. Dru Brown is seven of 10 for 142 yards and two scores while Shaun Taylor is four of four for 21 yards. Chuba Hubbard is the workhorse back for the Cowboys as he leads the team and the nation with 162 carries for 1,094 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. LD Brown is the next back up with 24 carries for 78 yards and a score. Tylan Wallace leads the team with 39 receptions for 703 yards and seven touchdowns. Dillon Stoner (24 catches, 224 yards) and Landon Wolf (13 grabs, 111 yards) are the only other players with double-digit receptions this season. Matt Ammendola has hit all 27 extra points and 10 of 10 field goal tries with a long of 43 this season.

Teams have to gameplan for Hubbard, including this week's opponent. Baylor coach Matt Rhule is impressed.

“I mean, elite, in every sense of the word," said Rhule during his press conference on Monday. "What is kinda cool about Oklahoma State is they have an NFL-style run game. They are not a spread offense, they are a pro-style offense in terms of the things they do run-game wise. He runs the stretch outside zone and he runs it as well as anyone in college football. He will put his foot in the ground and get vertical. He can outrun you if you are not careful, they do it in tempo and outrun people and he’s getting 12 yards a carry. Then he has the ability to run insert plays, he’s physical, he’s got breakaway speed. I think he is a dominant player."

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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This one is going to be well worth the price of admission, at least on paper. The Bears have been impressive with their perfect record, and they took down a Texas Tech team that knocked Oklahoma State out of the rankings two weeks ago. Baylor’s biggest challenge is going to be containing Hubbard but their defense has been pretty stout as they’ve allowed only 3.2 yards per carry. Oklahoma State is going to have to avoid turnovers like they had against Texas Tech: the Cowboys are a -7 in the takeaway/giveaway department while Baylor is a +4. That might be enough for the Bears to squeak out a win here.

Prediction: Baylor Bears +3.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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Both teams have been prolific on the offensive side of the ball this season. Baylor has put up at least 31 points in four of their six games this season while Oklahoma State has hit the 30 point mark in five of their six games. The potential for offensive fireworks are definitely in the cards in this one and it will be interesting to see if either defense can slow down the opposition. Oklahoma State has short-circuited themselves with turnovers on a regular basis, as we saw against Texas Tech two weeks ago. Can the Cowboys do a better job protecting the ball and upset Baylor in Stillwater?

The under is 6-1 in the Bears' last 7 conference games, 5-1 in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five on the road and 4-1 in their last five after an ATS loss. Both teams have the ability to put points on the board but Baylor's defense has been pretty solid this season. While both teams likely will come close to 30 points, this one ends up falling a little short of the total.

Prediction: Under 67.5

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.