Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#379 LSU -18.5 vs.
#380 Mississippi St 61.5
Saturday, October 19, 2019 at 3:30pm EDT
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville
Written by Chris Kubala

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#379 Louisiana State University
#380 Mississippi State University
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A pair of teams from the SEC West lock up on the gridiron in the Magnolia State. The #2 LSU Tigers are on the road as they make the trip to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday afternoon. LSU won a big showdown of undefeated conference teams as they took down #7 Florida 42-28 at home last Saturday. Mississippi State was dropped 20-10 on the road by Tennessee in their previous contest last Saturday. The Tigers own a 70-36-3 edge in the all-time series, including a 19-3 win at home last season when both teams were ranked on October 20, 2018.

LSU Tigers Try to Remain Unbeaten

LSU rallied against Florida, coming up with key plays on both sides of the ball in the second half to earn the win. The Tigers moved to #2 in the AP poll, leaving them behind only Alabama in the polls and marking the 29th time that the SEC has owned the top two spots. LSU owned a 511-457 edge in total offense in the contest despite losing the first down battle 28-22 and getting demolished in the time of possession margin by a 38:19 to 21:41 margin in the game. The Tigers did force the game’s lone turnover, which came midway through the fourth quarter with LSU up seven and stopped a potential game-tying drive.

The Tigers are second in the nation in passing offense with 395.5 yards per contest while the team is 68th in rushing offense with 165.5 yards per game. LSU is first in the FBS in scoring offense with 52.5 points per game while ranking 40th in scoring defense with 21.2 points per contest. Joe Burrow has hit 148 of 186 passes for 2,157 yards with 25 touchdowns and three interceptions: he’s added 105 yards plus two scores on the ground. Myles Brennan is 17 of 26 for 216 yards and an interception. Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the team on the ground with 78 carries for 494 yards and seven touchdowns. Tyrion Davis-Pierce (31 carries, 152 yards, three TD) and John Emery Jr. (27 carries, 116 yards, two TD) are next in line. Justin Jefferson leads the team with 40 catches for 670 yards plus eight scores while Terrace Marshall Jr. (20 grabs, 304 yards, six scores) and Ja’Marr Chase (30 catches, 578 yards, eight TD) are solid targets as well. Cade York has hit 40 of 41 extra points and seven of nine field goal tries with a long of 48 this season.

Burrow is generating a lot of Heisman talk right now along with Jalen Hurts from Oklahoma. Some would consider that a distraction, but not LSU head coach Ed Orgeron.

“That’s what we want,” Orgeron said in a Monday press conference. "That’s what we want. We want to be mentioned as one of the top teams in the country. I want our guys to get a Heisman. Inside our room, it’s about fundamentals, about the task at hand, and beating Mississippi State.

“But it does do something for your program. That’s why you come to LSU. You want the expectations to be high, but you also want to meet those expectations. Doesn’t mean a hill of beans when you go to Mississippi State and not play well. We have a lot riding on the line. It’s one game at a time. Mississippi State is in our way.”

Mississippi State Bulldogs Look to Spring Upset

Mississippi State lost their second straight and their third in the last four games as they were dumped in the Volunteer State by Tennessee. The Bulldogs now are at the .500 mark on the season and have a monumental challenge here if they hope to avoid falling to 3-4. Mississippi State was outgained 357-267 in the contest despite owning a 20-14 edge in first downs. The Bulldogs lost the time of possession battle by a 33:02 to 26:58 margin and turned the ball over three times while forcing two takeaways. Mississippi State is going to have their work cut out for them in this contest.

The Bulldogs are 109th in the nation in passing offense as they average 184.2 yards per game this season. Mississippi State is 42nd in the country in rushing offense as they pick up 192 yards per contest. The Bulldogs are 83rd in the FBS in scoring offense by putting up 26.8 points per game and stand 67th in scoring defense by allowing 27.2 points per contest. Garrett Shrader is 45 of 78 passing for 590 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while ranking second on the team with 374 rushing yards and two scores. Tommy Stevens is 43 of 69 for 515 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions along with 52 rushing yards and two scores. Kylin Hill leads the Bulldogs on the ground with 119 carries for 609 yards and five touchdowns. After him, there’s a steep drop as Nick Gibson is the next running back in line with 10 carries for 62 yards and two scores. Osirus Mitchell leads the team with 24 receptions for 335 yards and four scores. Deddrick Thomas (11 grabs, 156 yards, TD) and Stephen Guidry (10 catches, 113 yards, two TD) are the only other players with double-digit receptions this season. Jace Christmann is 15 of 16 on extra points and four of six on field goals with a long of 51. Jordan Lawless hit all five extra point tries and one of two field goals with a long of 37 on the year.

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LSU has yet to score less than 42 points in a game this season and they just carved up a Florida defense that entered the game leading the nation in takeaways and interceptions. The Tigers are an extremely dangerous team offensively and that is going to pose a problem for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are at home here but they are coming off a 56-23 demolition to #7 Auburn on the road before getting dropped at Tennessee. Losing to the Volunteers is not a good sign when your next opponent is LSU. The Tigers roll up more big offensive numbers and cruise to the victory here.

Prediction: LSU Tigers -18

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Teams have not slowed down the Tigers' offensive attack as the team has put up at least 42 points in every game this season. That doesn't bode well for a Mississippi State team that already gave up 56 to Auburn a couple of weeks ago. The Bulldogs are in the middle of the pack in scoring defense this season but they're going to have their work cut out for them dealing with the LSU passing attack, which just sliced up a Florida defense that has been terrific this season. Can the Bulldogs find a way to get back on track and earn a massive upset win?

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers' last 4 road games, 8-1 in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game and 7-1-1 in their last nine overall. Mississippi State has seen the over go 4-1 in their last five against teams with a winning record and 5-2 in their last seven overall. It's hard to see the Bulldogs' defense slowing Burrow and LSU's attack: a typical offensive showing by the Tigers makes this one blow past the total.

Prediction: Over 61
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.