Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#407 Missouri vs.
#408 Vanderbilt
Saturday, October 19, 2019 at 4:00pm EDT
Vanderbilt Stadium, Nasville
Written by Chris Kubala

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#407 University of Missouri
#408 Vanderbilt University
5-1
1-5
4-2
-6
2-4
2-4
38
17
15
36

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It’s a battle of SEC East Division teams in the Volunteer State. The #22 Missouri Tigers are on the road as they make the trip to face the Vanderbilt Commodores Saturday afternoon. Missouri comes in off a 38-27 home win over Ole Miss in their previous contest last Saturday. Vanderbilt was drubbed 34-10 at home by UNLV in their previous contest at home last Saturday. The Tigers lead the all-time series 5-3-1 and have taken the last three matchups: that includes a 33-28 home win in the most recent meeting on November 10, 2018.

Missouri Tigers Look to Remain Unbeaten in SEC Play

Missouri won their fifth straight since a season-opening defeat at Wyoming as they rolled past Ole Miss at home in their last contest. The Tigers, more importantly, are 2-0 in the SEC East and are the lone team with an unblemished conference mark in the division. Missouri broke open a 12-7 game at the half by outscoring the Rebels 23-7 in the third quarter and coasted from there. The Tigers outgained the Rebels 562-440, picked up 30 first downs while allowing 25 and controlled the clock by a 33:31 to 26:29 margin. Missouri did turn the ball over twice while forcing only one takeaway but still picked up the victory.

The Tigers are 35th in the nation in passing offense with 274.8 yards per game on the year while they are 38th in rushing offense with 199.5 yards per contest. Missouri is 17th in the FBS in scoring offense as they put up 38.8 points per game and the team stands 11th in scoring defense by limiting opposing teams to 15.8 points per contest. Kelly Bryant has completed 117 of 180 passes for 1,575 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 137 yards and a score on the ground. Taylor Powell is seven of 16 for 74 yards this season. Larry Rountree III leads the Tigers on the ground with 103 carries for 557 yards and seven scores while Tyler Badie contributes 59 carries for 264 yards plus two touchdowns as the second back in the system. Johnathon Johnson leads the Tigers with 25 receptions for 275 yards this season. Albert Okwuegbunam (16 receptions, 240 yards, five TD), Badie (19 grabs, 210 yards, two TD) and Jonathan Nance (13 catches, 250 yards, three TD) are good targets as well. Tucker McCann is 26 of 29 on extra point attempts and 11 of 14 on field goal tries this season with a long of 52.

Vanderbilt Commodores Seek to Pull Upset at Home

Vanderbilt suffered their second straight loss as they were drubbed convincingly at home by UNLV in non-conference action. The Commodores are 1-5 overall, having given up at least 30 points in each of their defeats this season. Vanderbilt led 7-0 after marching the length of the field in 2:50 on their opening drive but was outscored 34-3 the rest of the way by UNLV. The Commodores were outgained 378-306, lost the first down battle 21-12 and were dominated in time of possession by a 37:27 to 22:33 margin in the contest. Vanderbilt turned the ball over twice while forcing only one turnover.

The Commodores are 86th in the nation in passing offense with 214.8 yards per contest and the team is 105th in rushing offense with just 124 yards per game. Vanderbilt is a dismal 119th in scoring offense with 18 points per game and stands 120th in the FBS in scoring defense as they allow 36.8 points per contest. Riley Neal has completed 103 of 174 passes for 1,102 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions this season. Deuce Wallace is 25 of 59 for 187 yards with no touchdowns and one interception while Cam Johnson misfired on his lone pass attempt. Ke’Shawn Vaughn leads the team with 102 carries for 607 yards and five scores on the ground: no other player has more than 85 yards. Kalija Lipscomb leads the team with 31 catches for 343 yards plus two touchdowns on the season. Vaughn has 17 catches for 143 yards while Jared Pinkney (13 grabs, 143 yards), Cam Johnson (18 receptions, 184 yards, TD) and Justice Shelton-Mosley (10 catches, 67 yards) are other options. Ryley Guay has hit six of six extra points and seven of his eight field goal tries with a long of 48 this season. Javan Rice is four of four on extra points and hit his lone field goal try from 28 yards.

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Vanderbilt has struggled to stop opposing teams all season and they’re going to have a tough time contending with the weapons that Missouri brings to the table. The Tigers have rolled past some decent teams in their five-game win streak and they are going to try to avoid a letdown here. Bryant bounced back nicely from an injury scare a couple of weeks ago and the Tigers picked up an impressive win over Ole Miss. The Tigers are on the road here after five straight home victories: playing a Commodores team that is going nowhere fast shouldn’t pose a threat here. Look for Missouri to make it six straight triumphs with a win here.

 

Prediction: Missouri Tigers -21

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Vanderbilt has been inconsistent all season and that's a major reason why they are 1-5 entering this contest. The Commodores scored a season-high 38 points against LSU but they've been held to 10 points or less in three of their games already this season. Vanderbilt has given up at least 30 points in five of their six games, all of which were losses. Missouri has hung at least 31 points in every game this season while holding four of their six opponents under 14 points this season. Can the Commodores find a way to come up with the victory here?

The under is 8-1 in the Tigers' last 9 games on fieldturf, 5-1 in their last 6 games following a straight up win, 4-1 in their last five overall and 4-1 in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Vanderbilt has seen the under go 5-1 in their last six conference games, 7-2 in their last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points and 6-2 in their last 8 games on fieldturf. The teams have stayed under the total in each of their last five meetings: this one likely falls short of the mark as the Commodores struggle to move the ball against the Missouri defense.

Prediction: Under 56.5
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.