Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#409 San Diego State -7.5 vs.
#410 San Jose State 48.5
Saturday, October 19, 2019 at 7:00pm EDT
CEFCU Stadium, San Jose
Written by Chris Kubala



#409 San Diego State University
#410 San Jose State University


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It’s a battle between a pair of teams from the West Division of the Mountain West Conference in the Silicon Valley. The San Diego State Aztecs are on the road as they make the trip within the state as they face the San Jose State Spartans Saturday night. San Diego State edged Wyoming 26-22 at home in their previous contest last Saturday. San Jose State came up on the short end of a wild 41-38 road loss to Nevada in their previous game last Saturday. The Aztecs held a 17-5-1 edge in the all-time series between the teams and took the last six meetings, including a 16-13 home win in the most recent matchup on October 20, 2018.

San Diego State Aztecs Seek Seventh Straight Triumph vs. Spartans

San Diego State earned their second straight win as they picked up a tough victory over Wyoming in their last contest. The Aztecs look to make it three straight wins and beat San Jose State for the seventh straight time here. San Diego State trailed 14-3 at the half, rallied to take the lead at 19-14 after three quarters and scored the game-winning touchdown with 2:09 to play. The Aztecs owned a 329-266 advantage in total offense, picked up 21 first downs while allowing 11 and held a 33:23 to 26:37 edge in time of possession. San Diego State forced two turnovers in the game without committing any.

The Aztecs are 103rd in the nation in passing offense with 192.3 yards per game through the air while the team is 99th in rushing offense with 132.2 yards per contest. San Diego State is just 108th in the FBS in scoring offense with 21.2 points per game but they have been sparkling defensively, ranking eighth in the nation in scoring defense by allowing only 13.2 points per contest. Ryan Agnew has completed 113 of 176 passes for 1,154 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions on the season: he’s added 40 yards on the ground. Jordan Byrd is third on the team with 57 carries for 207 yards and two scores while Chance Bell adds 44 carries for 211 yards plus a score: Juwan Washington (87 carries, team high 265 yards, TD) is also in the mix, though he missed time earlier this season with an ankle injury. Jesse Matthews is second on the team with 21 receptions for 224 yards on the season. Kobe Smith (team-high 30 catches, 407 yards, four TD) and Elijah Kothe (10 receptions, 95 yards) are next in line. Matt Araiza has booted all 13 extra point attempts and 10 of 12 field goal tries this season with a long of 47.

San Jose State Spartans Hope to Bounce Back

San Jose State went to the wire against Nevada but ended up on the short end of the contest after giving up the winning field goal on the final play of the game. The Spartans, who have alternated wins and losses this season, look to build off a 21-point rally and earn a win here. San Jose State trailed 31-10 eight seconds into the second half but tied the game at 31 and again at 38 before falling. The Spartans were outgained 541-420, gave up 25 first downs while recording 16 and were dominated in time of possession by a 39:16 to 20:44 margin. San Jose State forced three turnovers while only committing two: one of those was a pick-six that proved critical in the end result of the game.

The Spartans are 9th in the nation in passing offense with 326 yards per game while the team ranks 126th by running for 89.8 yards per contest. San Jose State is 69th in the FBS in scoring offense with 29.3 points per game and 91st in scoring defense as they allow 29.8 points per contest. Josh Love has completed 135 of 226 passes for 1,823 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. Nick Nash has hit 12 of 17 throws for 133 yards plus two scores and leads the team with 40 carries for 255 yards and three scores on the ground. DeJon Packer has 53 carries for 192 yards plus five scores while Tyler Nevens contributes 42 carries for 145 yards and a score on the ground. Isaiah Hamilton leads the team with 18 receptions for 254 yards plus a score while Tre Walker chips in a team-leading 31 grabs for 447 yards and a score. Bailey Gaither (20 catches, 389 yards, two TD) and JaQuan Blackwell (13 grabs, 166 yards, TD) are solid secondary options. Matt Mercurio has hit 20 of 21 extra point attempts and eight of 11 field goal tries with a long of 49.

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Insiders Status:


This is going to be a clash of styles. San Jose State has been extremely effective through the air this season but they are rather leaky defensively. The Spartans are going to have to contend with a stingy San Diego State team here. The Aztecs had limited opposing teams to just 1.8 yards per carry on the ground before Wyoming ran 39 times for 157 yards last week. San Diego State is very good in protecting the ball, committing only three turnovers while forcing 14 takeaways on the year. The Spartans are going to have a tough time here and in the end, the Aztecs defense is too much to contend with: San Diego State gets the road win here.

Prediction: San Diego State Aztecs -7.5

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San Diego State has relied on their defense this season to keep them in games as the offense has failed to deliver at times, especially in the ground game. Meanwhile, San Jose State has done a ton through the air but their defense has let them down. The Spartans have allowed at least 34 points in three of their games and their wins are over Northern Colorado (an FCS school), New Mexico (2-4 with wins over aj FCS team and a winless New Mexico State) and Arkansas (a doormat in the otherwise powerful SEC), which is hardly a Murderers Row of talent. Can the Spartans find a way to get the home win in conference play?

The under is 5-0 in the Aztecs' last five road games, 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game and 6-1 in their last seven overall. San Jose State has seen the under go 4-0 in their last four at home, 4-0 in their last four after a straight up loss, 6-1 in their last seven on fieldturf and 5-1 in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. This one is dictated by the Aztecs' defense, which makes life tough for the Spartans: look for it to fall under the total.

Prediction: Under 46.5

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.