Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#361 Toledo 60.5 vs.
#362 Ball State -2.5
Saturday, October 19, 2019 at 2:00pm EDT
Scheumann Stadium, Muncie
Written by Scott Reichel

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#361 University of Toledo
#362 Ball State University
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Week Eight of college football continues as Toledo travels to Scheumann Stadium to take on Ball State on Saturday, Oct. 19 at 2:00 P.M. This will be the 45th meeting between these two teams. The last meeting occurred last season when the Rockets beat the Cardinals at home by a score of 45-13.

Toledo Looks To Continue Its Dominance Over Ball State

So far this season, the Toledo Rockets have been a bit underwhelming up to this point. After entering the season with hopes of competing for a conference title, Toledo is just 1-1 in conference play after losing outright to Bowling Green last week despite being favored by about four touchdowns. Now, Toledo's hopes of reaching the MAC title game are in jeopardy. However, Toledo now gets to face an opponent that it has dominated in recent years. Specifically, Toledo has won five straight meetings against Ball State with each win coming by at least 11 points. Now, Toledo will look to potentially save its season by extending that winning streak against Ball State on Saturday.

Leading the Rockets offensively will be senior quarterback Mitchell Guadagni who has been consistent so far this season. Specifically, he has 1,099 passing yards along with eight passing touchdowns and just two interceptions. In addition, he also has 332 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. However, Guadagni had to leave last week's game early with an injury and he is currently being listed as questionable to play in this game. If he is unable to play, either Eli Peters or Carter Bradley will take his place.

Toledo's biggest threat on defense is sophomore safety Saeed Holt who has been extremely physical through the first six games of the season. Specifically, he has a team-high 3.5 sacks. In addition, he is also leading the Rockets in both solo tackles and total tackles. Last season, Holt only had one tackle against Ball State so he will look to play a lot better in his second career matchup against the Cardinals.

Ball State Looks To Stay Undefeated In Conference Play

Ball State has been okay up to this point in time. Specifically, the Cardinals are just 3-3 overall after starting the season with a 1-3 record. However, it has managed to win its first two conference games so it is actually in first place in MAC West Division. Ball State was not expected to compete for a conference title when the season started but times have changed and it will look to remain undefeated in conference play with a victory on Saturday. However, it did face two below-average MAC teams in Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan so Toledo will be a step up in competition. Hopefully, for the Cardinals, they will be up to the challenge.

Leading the Cardinals offensively will be junior quarterback Drew Plittwho has been great so far this season. Specifically, he has 1,662 passing yards along with 13 passing touchdowns. However, he has thrown five interceptions while also being sacked 15 times so he has to make quicker decisions in the pocket moving forward. Although some of those turnovers are due to Ball State's below-average offensive line, Plitt has no choice but to adapt.

Ball State's biggest threat on defense is junior defensive lineman James Jennette III who has been decent through the first six games of the season. Specifically, he has a team-high 2.5 sacks along with 25 total tackles. However, he has gotten very little help from his teammates this season when it comes to pass rushing as there is only one other player with more than one sack on the entire roster. If Ball State plans on winning this game, someone else needs to step up and pressure the quarterback.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Even though Toledo got embarrassed last week by Bowling Green, I still think that it is the better team in this game. Toledo is still 4-2 overall and has not lost to Ball State since 2013. Plus, Ball State is just 1-2 at home this season so I question just how much of an advantage it is for the Cardinals to be playing at home. I think that Toledo is favored for a reason here. Give me the road team as a result.

Prediction: Toledo -2.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Simply put, this total seems a bit too high so I will take the under. Toledo has a solid offense but it was just held to seven points by Bowling Green last week so it is not in the best form. Meanwhile, Ball State has not scored more than 23 points against Toledo since 2013 so I question just how effective its offense will be on Saturday. This game should end somewhere in the realm of 27-24 so I will take the under.

Prediction: Under 59
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Written By Scott Reichel

Scott Reichel is a University of Wisconsin-Madison graduate with an insane passion for sports. His commitment to endlessly researching statistics helps separate him from other handicappers with regard to MLB, NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL and NFL coverage. Scott also shares his passion for sports on StatSalt's YouTube page where he does a daily show called Scott's Selections.