The Fresno State Bulldogs will head on the road to battle the New Mexico Lobos in a conference showdown Saturday night from Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, NM. The Bulldogs are coming off a 27-3 home win over Wyoming, and the Lobos were edged 20-18 against Colorado State in their previous action. Fresno State blanked New Mexico by a 38-0 score last season.
Fresno State Dazzles on Defense in Fourth Straight Win
The Fresno State Bulldogs enter this one on a four-game winning streak which included a convincing 27-3 home win over Wyoming last week to improve to 2-0 in conference play. Marcus McMaryion was outstanding, amassing 287 passing yards with two TD’s. The senior QB is having a tremendous season, racking up 1578 passing yards with an 11:2 TD to INT ratio. Bulldogs’ leading rusher Jordan Mims only registered 12 rushing yards last week, and he has 244 rushing yards on an average of 3.4 yards per carry this season. A key player to watch for in this contest is KeeSean Johnson. The senior WR has made at least five catches in all six games, and he is up to 510 receiving yards on the season. The Fresno State offense thrives with a potent passing game that ranks 35th in the FBS.
— Fresno State Football (@FresnoStateFB) October 14, 2018
The Bulldogs defense continues to silence opponents. They stifled Wyoming last week by limiting them to only 221 total yards. Fresno State is very effective against both the pass and run, and they are holding opponents to only 302 total yards per game. They are currently averaging 38 points per game, good for 24th in the nation. Fresno State is limiting opponents to only 13.5 points, pegging them second in the FBS.
Lobos Offense Stifled in Loss to Colorado State
The New Mexico Lobos return home after two straight road games which included a tough 20-18 road loss to Colorado State to even their conference record at 1-1. Sheriron Jones played well, notching 165 passing yards with two TD’s. The junior QB has tossed six TD passes in his last two games, and he has registered 955 passing yards with a 12:6 TD to INT ratio on the year. Lobos’ top rusher Tyrone Owens only averaged 3.6 yards per carry for a total of 65 rushing yards last week. The senior RB has only rushed for over 100 yards on one occasion this season, and he has tallied 424 rushing yards on the season. The Lobos spread their passing game around several receivers. Elijah Lilly leads the Lobos with 317 receiving yards and four TD’s. Overall, the New Mexico offense has performed well this season, and they have scored at least 42 points in three out of their last four games.
— New Mexico Lobos (@UNMLOBOS) October 13, 2018
The Lobos defense is progressing nicely, allowing only a combined 34 points in their last two games. Overall, their pass defense has remained a lingering issue, and they conceded another 311 passing yards against Colorado State last week. The Lobos’ lone conference win came in the form of a 50-14 triumph against UNLV, and they are currently averaging 38.2 points, pegging them 22nd in the FBS. New Mexico is conceding an average of 31 points, placing them down at 93rd overall.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are:
- 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 games on grass.
The New Mexico Lobos are:
- 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their previous game.
- over is 4-0 in their last 4 games after scoring 20 or fewer points in their previous game.
- over is 4-1 in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am taking the points with New Mexico in this one. The New Mexico offense should allow them to keep this one close. The Lobos are actually averaging more points and yards per game than Fresno State, plus New Mexico is on their home field in this one. Lobos’ QB Sheriron Jones has tossed 12 touchdown passes over his last three games, and they also feature a potent running game that is currently averaging just under 200 rushing yards per game. While the Bulldogs defense owns solid defensive stats, they have faced several low-scoring teams this season.
Furthermore, the Lobos defense has displayed improvement recently. They have only allowed a combined 34 points in their last two games against UNLV and Colorado State. In addition, Fresno State has only averaged 24 points in their two conference games this season.
Prediction: New Mexico
Full-Game Total Pick
The over is a strong play in this one. Both teams feature big playmakers on offense, and I anticipate plenty of scoring from both sides. New Mexico is averaging a sizzling 38.3 points over their last four games and they should have a productive night on their home field, plus the over is 12-4 in their last 16 home games.
In addition, while New Mexico’s defense has played well recently, they are up against a powerful Fresno State offense led by Marcus McMaryion who has led the Bulldogs to an average of 270 passing yards per game. The over is 5-1 in the Lobos’ last six games overall, and it should convert again in this one.
Full-Game Prop Bet
The under on the Fresno State team total is a solid play. Fresno State is only averaging 24.3 points in their three road games this season. In addition, New Mexico is playing solid defense recently, holding a high-scoring Nevada team to 14 points in week five, and they limited Colorado State to only 20 points last week.
Prediction: Fresno State Team Total: Under 34.5
Half-Time Side Pick
New Mexico on the halftime line is a strong option. New Mexico is actually averaging more points than Fresno State in the first half this season. The Lobos are averaging 14 points in the first half compared to only 12.8 points from Fresno State. Also the Bulldogs are on the road, making the Lobos a very attractive option on the halftime line.
Prediction: New Mexico +7
Half-Time Total Bet
I am staying with the over on the halftime line. New Mexico’s potent offense should be able to solve the Bulldogs defense on their home field. In addition, the Lobos defense hasn’t been sharp in the first half this season, squandering an average of 16.6 points, pegging them down at 90th in the country.
Prediction: Over 26.5
Half-Time Prop Prediction
I am taking the under on the Fresno State first half team total. As mentioned, the Bulldogs have not been productive in the first half, and that has especially been the case on the road. They are only averaging 7.7 points in the first half in their three road games on the season.
Prediction: Fresno State First Half Team Total: Under 17